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Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: Former NFL Players

By Stephen Juza

January 3rd, 2023

With each NFL season, about 25% of the teams will fire their head coach and begin searching for their next franchise savior. In this series, we will look at the top coaching candidates that will be considered for a head coaching opportunity. Today we look at former players who are currently assistant coaches throughout the league.

Aaron Glenn:

Prior Interviews: Glenn interviewed for the Saints and the Broncos head coaching jobs at the conclusion of the 2022 regular season.

Current Job: Defensive Coordinator, Detroit Lions

Lions Record: 8-8-0

Years of NFL Coaching Experience: Eleven seasons in the NFL, including two seasons as a coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Aaron Glenn will be a new branch in the Pettine, Payton, and Campbell coaching trees. Glenn spent two years as a member of Mike Pettine's staff, five years as a member of Sean Payton's staff, and two years as a member of Dan Campbell's staff.

College Playing Career: After originally playing at Navarro College, he transferred to Texas A&M for his final two seasons. Glenn was a consensus All-American in 1993 and two-time All-SWC.

NFL Playing Career: Glenn played cornerback. He was drafted in the first round in the 1994 draft. Glenn had a long, successful career in the NFL, playing fifteen seasons across five different teams. His best years were with the New York Jets, where he received two of his three Pro Bowl nominations. After his run with the Jets, he was acquired by the Houston Texans during the 2002 expansion draft.

Parting Thoughts: Glenn garnered serious interest last offseason from multiple teams, and he will likely get more consideration this offseason. While the Lions’ turnaround this season has been impressive, it has been largely driven by offensive improvements, not the defense

Ken Dorsey:

Prior Interviews: Dorsey has not interviewed for any head coaching jobs before this season.

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Buffalo Bills

Bills Record: 12-3-0

Years of NFL Coaching Experience: Nine seasons in the NFL, with one as a coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Ken Dorsey will be a new branch in the Rivera and McDermott coaching trees. Dorsey spent five years as a member of Ron Rivera's staff and four years as a member of Sean McDermott's staff.

College Playing Career: Dorsey was a 2x Heisman Trophy finalist after a standout career in Miami. He was a first-team All-American in 2002, and the national championship winning squad in 2001 is considered one of the most talented college football teams ever.

NFL Playing Career: After Miami, Dorsey was drafted in the seventh round of the NFL draft. He played for seven seasons between the NFL and the CFL, mostly as a backup quarterback. He did start 13 games in his career, most of them in 2004 for the 49ers.

Parting Thoughts: Dorsey’s spent time working with two different standout quarterbacks during their best years of their career (Cam Newton and Josh Allen). In a quarterback driven league, Dorsey’s experience could be invaluable in turning around a franchise in 2023.

Kellen Moore:

Prior Interviews: Moore interviewed for several potential head coaching jobs last offseason, including Jacksonville, Denver, Miami, and Minnesota.

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Record: 12-4-0

Years of NFL Coaching Experience: Five seasons in the NFL, including four as a coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Kellen Moore will be a new branch in the Garrett and McCarthy coaching trees. Moore spent two years as a member of Jason Garrett's staff and three years as a member of Mike McCarthy's staff.

College Playing Career: Moore set numerous records during his time in Boise. He was the first QB in FBS history to win 50 games as a starting quarterback. He was also very careful with the ball, setting the NCAA record for the lowest percentage of his passes being intercepted in his career. Beyond his records, he also won countless awards, including a three time conference offensive player of the year and two time quarterback of the year by the Touchdown Club of Columbus.

NFL Playing Career: After Boise State, Moore went undrafted and signed with the Detroit Lions in 2012. During his six years in the NFL, he saw the field one season. In 2015, Moore started two games late in the season after starter Tony Romo broke his collarbone.

Parting Thoughts: Moore has spent almost his entire professional career in the Cowboys organization. Moore has helped guide the Cowboys’ offense through a difficult season after starting quarterback Dak Prescott missed five games with injury. However, the Cowboys went 4-1 with backup quarterback Cooper Rush under center. Teams looking for offensive experience will give Moore strong consideration in the coming weeks.

DeMeco Ryans:

Prior Interviews: Ryans interviewed with the Minnesota Vikings last offseason for their vacant head coaching position, and turned down an opportunity to have a second interview with the organization to return to the 49ers.

Current Job: Defensive Coordinator, San Francisco 49ers

49ers Record: 12-4-0

Years of NFL Experience: Six seasons in the NFL, including two as a coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, DeMeco Ryans will be the third branch in the Shanahan coaching tree. Ryans spent six years as a member of Kyle Shanahan's staff.

College Playing Career: Ryans won various awards during his seasons with the Alabama Crimson Tide - the Lott Trophy to highlight both his on-field and academic accomplishments, first team All-American, and SEC Defensive Player of the Year.

NFL Playing Career: After his time in Alabama, Ryans was drafted in the second round, 33rd overall, by the Houston Texans. Ryans was named Rookie of the Year in 2006, and followed that with his only nomination to the All-Pro team in 2007. After his playing career ended, he took a season off and began his coaching career with the 49ers.

Parting Thoughts: Similar to Moore, Ryans has spent his entire coaching career with the San Francisco 49ers. This season, Ryans has helped lead the top ranked defense in the league. While offensive coaches will get more consideration this offseason, Ryans will likely be Kyle Shannahan’s second defensive coordinator hired to the top job.

Jerod Mayo:

Prior Interviews: Mayo interviewed with the Broncos and the Raiders last offseason for their head coaching opportunities, falling short in both interviews.

Current Job: Inside Linebackers Coach, New England Patriots

Patriots Record: 8-8-0

Years of NFL Coaching Experience: Four seasons in the NFL, all as a position coach.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Jerod Mayo will be the eleventh branch in the Belichick coaching tree. Mayo spent four years as a member of Bill Belichick's staff.

Family History: Mayo is the brother of current New England Patriots strength and conditioning assistant coach Deron Mayo.

College Playing Career: Mayo played college football at Tennessee where he was named first-team All-SEC and second-team All-American in his junior year before declaring for the NFL draft in 2008.

NFL Playing Career: Mayo was drafted by the Patriots with the tenth overall pick in the NFL draft. He excelled right out of the gate, receiving 49 of 50 possible votes for Rookie of the Year. During his career, he was named to the All-Pro team once (2010) and made two Pro Bowls (2010, 2012).

Parting Thoughts: Mayo has spent his entire NFL life under Bill Belichick, which may cause concern for some teams. Belichick’s coaching tree leaves a lot to be desired, but another former Patriots’ linebacker (Mike Vrabel) has found success as a coach.

Eric Bieniemy:

Prior Interviews: Bieniemy has interviewed for a variety of jobs over the last four years, including the Saints and the Broncos last offseason.

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Record: 13-3-0

Years of NFL Coaching Experience: Fifteen seasons in the NFL, including five as a coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Eric Bieniemy will be a new branch in the Childress and Reid coaching trees. Bieniemy spent five years as a member of Brad Childress' staff and ten years as a member of Andy Reid's staff.

Award-winning Players: Patrick Mahomes, 2018, Most Valuable Player, Kansas City Chiefs; Patrick Mahomes, 2018, AP Offensive Player of the Year, Kansas City Chiefs.

College Playing Career: Bieniemy played running back for the University of Colorado. During his time in Colorado, he was named an All-American and Heisman Trophy finalist.

NFL Playing Career: After college, he was drafted in the second round by the San Diego Chargers. He played nine seasons in the NFL, four with the Chargers, four with the Bengals, and one with the Eagles. His last season (1999) was Andy Reid's first season as a head coach in Philadelphia.

Parting Thoughts: Bieniemy has been interviewing for a head coaching position for several years, but hasn’t been able to break through despite coaching excellent offenses in both of his assistant stops. One possible thought is that despite his success as a coach, Andy Reid is still dictating much of the offensive strategy. Teams also could be more hesitant to hire another of Reid’s offensive coordinators after watching Matt Nagy struggle with the Bears.

Check out the other two in the series:

Next Article: Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: First Time Candidates

Prior Article: Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: Former Head Coaches

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Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: Former Head Coaches

By Stephen Juza

January 2nd, 2023

With each NFL season, about 25% of the teams will fire their head coach and begin searching for their next franchise savior. In this series, we will look at the top coaching candidates that will be considered for a head coaching opportunity. Today we look at the top former head coaches likely to get a look in the coming weeks:

Sean Payton:

Playing Career: Payton played college football at Eastern Illinois and was undrafted out of college. He played for a variety of teams throughout the Arena Football League, Canadian Football League, and the UK Budweiser National League, and played three games in the NFL during the NFL strike of 1987.

Current Job: Payton joined Fox to work in the studio throughout 2022 after stepping down last season as the head coach of the New Orleans Saints.

Years of NFL Coaching Experience: Twenty-four seasons in the NFL.

Head Coach Experience: Fifteen seasons, 152-89-0, 9-8 in the playoffs. Payton has the highest winning percentage in Saints history (63%), and was the winner of the 2006 Coach of the Year award, and led the team to a Super Bowl victory to finish the 2009 season, the first in franchise history.

Coaching Trees: Before he was a head coach, Payton spent two years as a member of Ray Rhodes' staff, four years as a member of Jim Fassel's staff, and three years as a member of Bill Parcells' staff. Two of his former assistant coaches are active head coaches in the NFL, Dan Campbell and Dennis Allen.

Award-winning Players: Drew Brees, 2008, AP Offensive Player of the Year, New Orleans Saints; Drew Brees, 2011, AP Offensive Player of the Year, New Orleans Saints; Alvin Kamara, 2017, AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, New Orleans Saints; Marshon Lattimore, 2017, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, New Orleans Saints

Parting Thoughts: Sean Payton may be the best coaching candidate available this offseason and will have his choice of the jobs should he want to re-enter the coaching ranks. Any team that signs him will also need to trade the Saints for his coaching rights due to his contract and retirement last offseason with the Saints.

Leslie Frazier:

Current Job: Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator, Buffalo Bills. Frazier has spent the last six seasons in Buffalo leading the defense.

Bills Record: 11-3-0

Years of NFL Experience: Twenty-four seasons in the NFL.

Head Coach Experience: Three seasons, 18-29-1, 0-1 in the playoffs. He also served as the interim head coach of the Vikings during the 2010 season.

Coaching Trees: Before he was a head coach, Leslie Frazier spent four years as a member of Andy Reid's staff, two years as a member of Marvin Lewis' staff, two years as a member of Tony Dungy's staff, and four years as a member of Brad Childress' staff. Since his first head coaching stint, he has also spent two years as a member of Lovie Smith's staff, one year as a member of John Harbaugh's staff, and six years as a member of Sean McDermott's staff.

Award-winning Players: Adrian Peterson, 2012, Most Valuable Player, Minnesota Vikings; Adrian Peterson, 2012, AP Offensive Player of the Year, Minnesota Vikings

NFL Playing Career: Frazier played defensive back for the Chicago Bears from 1981-1985, including winning the Super Bowl XX. Frazier led the team in interceptions that season, but his career was cut short during a knee injury suffered during the Super Bowl.

Parting Thoughts: While Frazier did not have much success during his initial head coaching stint, he has had a lot of success with the Bills defense more recently and has likely coached his way into another shot as a head coach.

Dan Quinn:

Current Job: Defensive Coordinator, Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Record: 12-4-0

Years of NFL Experience: Twenty seasons in the NFL.

Head Coach Experience: Six seasons, 47-49-0, 3-2 in the playoffs, with a loss in the Super Bowl at the conclusion of 2016.

Coaching Trees: Quinn spent two years as a member of Steve Mariucci's staff, two years as a member of Dennis Erickson's staff, two years as a member of Nick Saban's staff, two years as a member of Eric Mangini's staff, one year as a member of Jim L. Mora (Jr.)'s staff, three years as a member of Pete Carroll's staff.

Award-winning Players: Matt Ryan, 2016, AP Offensive Player of the Year, Atlanta Falcons

Parting Thoughts: Quinn has coached in big games, and while the Falcons regressed the longer he was with the team, we have previously written about coaches like him who have been able to have very successful coaching careers after their first failed stint. Quinn fits the profile of ‘the “Bill” ’ described in a previous blog post: A coach that had flashes of success with their first stint and coached for at least five seasons.

Brian Flores:

Current Job: Linebackers Coach/Senior Defensive Assistant Coach, Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Record: 8-8-0

Years of NFL Experience: Nineteen seasons in the NFL, including four Super Bowl victories as an assistant coach or scouting assistant.

Head Coach Experience: Three seasons, 24-25.

Coaching Trees: Flores spent eleven years as a member of Bill Belichick's staff and one year as a member of Mike Tomlin's staff.

College Playing Career: Flores played linebacker for Boston College, but a leg injury prevented him from playing professionally.

Parting Thoughts: Last offseason, Flores was fired from the Dolphins despite back-to-back winning seasons. Despite his firing, he still garnered interviews with several teams for the head coach position last offseason.

Frank Reich:

Previous Job: Head Coach, Indianapolis Colts

Colts Record (with him at the helm): 4-11-1

Years of NFL Experience: Seventeen seasons in the NFL

Head Coach Experience: Five seasons, 41-39-1, 1-2 in the playoffs.

Coaching Trees: Reich spent one year as a member of Tony Dungy's staff, three years as a member of Jim Caldwell's staff, one year as a member of Ken Whisenhunt's staff, three years as a member of Mike McCoy's staff, and two years as a member of Doug Pederson's staff. Two of his former assistant coaches, Matt Eberflus and Nick Sirianni, are currently head coaches.

Award-winning Players: Darius Leonard, 2018, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, Indianapolis Colts; Andrew Luck, 2018, Comeback Player of the Year, Indianapolis Colts

Playing Career: Reich was drafted in the 3rd round of the 1985 draft, and played quarterback in the NFL for the Bills, Panthers, Jets, and Lions. During his career, he primarily was the backup quarterback for these teams, although saw his most game action during the 1996 season with the Jets.

Parting Thoughts: Reich was only recently fired from the Colts, but a series of short-term quarterback decisions doomed the franchise to instability. Three winning seasons out of five should be enough to warrant Reich an interview, if not another shot at the top job.

Check out the other two posts in the series:

Next Article: Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: First Time Candidates

Next Article: Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: Former NFL Players

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2023 Coaching Carousel

By Stephen Juza

Last Updated: January 9th, 2023

Each offseason, about 25% of the league will change head coaches for a variety of reasons. Some head coaches may retire, some may return to the college ranks, but most will be fired. As the NFL approaches the end of the regular season, here is a list of all the current vacancies and changes to the head coaching ranks.

Carolina Panthers:

Prior Head Coach: Matt Rhule (11-27 in 2+ seasons)

What Went Wrong: Rhule was a college head coach who made the jump to the NFL, despite only one season ever at the pro level. We have previously written about the boom-or-bust nature of NFL coaches, and Rhule certainly fits in the ‘bust’ category. The Panthers never had traction under his leadership. Team struggles at the quarterback position didn’t help, as the team had five different quarterbacks start during Rhule’s tenure.

Indianapolis Colts:

Prior Head Coach: Frank Reich (40-33-1 in 4+ seasons)

What Went Wrong: Reich had success early in his Colts tenure, making the playoffs in two of his first three seasons. However, a series of short term quarterback moves made it hard to have consistency in the offense. The Colts had a different starting quarterback entering the season every single season under Reich (Andrew Luck, 2018; Jacoby Brissett, 2019; Phillip Rivers, 2020; Carson Wentz, 2021; Matt Ryan, 2022).

Denver Broncos:

Prior Head Coach: Nathaniel Hackett (4-11 in his first season)

What went wrong: It's hard to find something that went right for the Broncos this season. After trading away numerous draft picks to acquire Russell Wilson, he has been one of the worst ranked quarterbacks in 2022. What's even worse for the Broncos future, is he signed a five-year mega contract with the Broncos before even playing a down. The Broncos struggled with signs of poor coaching from the very beginning of the season, and Hackett never quite found his footing.

Houston Texans:

Prior Head Coach: Lovie Smith (3-13-1 in his first season)

What went wrong: An offense and defense that ranked in the bottom five for the season will always end poorly for the head coach. While Smith may have had success with the Bears back fifteen years ago, the game may have passed him by. It's been almost a decade since he has coached on a team with a winning record. In fact, he has only one more win over his last three seasons as an NFL head coach (11) as he did in his final season with the Bears in 2012.

Arizona Cardinals:

Prior Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (28-37-1 in four seasons)

What went wrong: In his four seasons, the Cardinals had a habit of starting the season on a hot streak before cooling off during the back half of the season. However, this season, they never quite found their footing. This season, quarterback Kyler Murray tore his ACL mid-season, but should be ready for the next season.

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Revisiting the 2021 New Coaching Hires

By Stephen Juza

November 11th, 2022

Each offseason, a new batch of coaches gets elevated to the pinnacle of their profession: NFL Head Coach. Most coaches are hired into difficult positions – few successful teams replace a head coach – but which have fared the best from the 2021 first time head coaches?

In this blog post, we rank the five first time head coaching hires from last season and offer a historical perspective on their success, or lack of, leading up to the halfway point of their second season.

#1. Nick Sirianni – Philadelphia Eagles (68% Win Percentage)

Nick Sirianni has been the most successful hire from last season, leading the pack with a record of 17-8 for his career and a league leading 8-0 record for the current season. Sirianni has the Eagles leading an incredibly tough NFC East division this season after coming in second to the Dallas Cowboys in his inaugural year.

The Eagles have made a great decision hiring the former Colts offensive coordinator and handing him the reigns to the franchise. Sirianni’s work with quarterback Jalen Hurts has helped Hurts make major strides in his third season. Sirianni’s win percentage puts him toward the top of the pile among coaches starting out. Only six coaches have a higher winning percentage to start their career than Sirianni, and most of them have appear in numerous conference championships or Super Bowls. The future is bright in Philly.

Historical Comparison: Mike McCarthy (67% Win Percentage)

His early win percentage is right in line with Mike McCarthy's early tenure with the Green Bay Packers. Both coaches came from the offensive side of the ball, QB coaches before becoming offensive coordinators. Over the course of his almost thirteen seasons with the Packers, McCarthy won one Super Bowl and made nine playoff appearances.

After a middling first season, McCarthy opened his second season 8-1 to finish the season with a loss in the NFC Championship to the eventual Super Bowl champions.

#2. Brandon Staley – Los Angeles Chargers (56% Win Percentage)

Despite coming from a defensive background, the Chargers have not been winning games based on the strength of the defense. In Brandon Staley's time with the Chargers, the offensive unit has looked strong. Last season they were top-five in both yards and points. Quarterback Justin Herbert had the second most yards last year while running back Austin Ekeler tied for the most touchdowns in the league.

The AFC West looks to be a competitive division at the top for the foreseeable future, but Herbert’s continued development will help position them toward the top of the division year after year. If Staley can replicate the success of the Rams defense in his sole season as a defensive coordinator, the Chargers will be Super Bowl contenders for the next decade.

Historical Comparison: Dan Quinn (56% Win Percentage)

In 2015, Dan Quinn was hired after a brief stint as the Seahawks defensive coordinator to lead the Atlanta Falcons. He inherited a team that had missed the playoffs for two seasons. Taking over a team with a talented and experienced quarterback (Matt Ryan) in a tough division filled with top QB talent, he was able to carve out a moderately successful five-year stint at head coach.

While the offense was consistently in the top-ten in yards, the defense struggled to match the success. After five seasons, one Super Bowl appearance and one wild card berth, Quinn was fired five games into his sixth season at the helm.

#3. Arthur Smith – Atlanta Falcons (41% Win Percentage)

Arthur Smith was hired last season by the Atlanta Falcons after two seasons as the Titans offensive coordinator that saw the team make the playoffs both seasons. Smith has struggled so far in Atlanta as they replaced franchise quarterback Matt Ryan this offseason with former Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, the offense has sputtered with inconsistent quarterback play during Smith’s tenure. Ryan posted his worst season in a decade in his final season with the team before being traded to the Colts. Mariota has posted stats placing him toward the bottom of the QB rankings for the 2022 season.

Smith will have to figure out the Falcons quarterback situation to be able to stick with the team long-term. The NFC South is ripe for the taking, as every team is searching (or will be searching very soon) for their long-term solution at the position. The team that figures it out first will be able to dominate the division for several years to come.

Historical Comparison: Gary Kubiak (41% Win Percentage)

Gary Kubiak came to the Houston Texans after a lengthy career with the Denver Broncos, first as a backup quarterback to John Elway. After his retirement, he joined the coaching staff and rose through the ranks to their offensive coordinator. During his first two seasons with the Texans, Kubiak dealt with turnover at the quarterback position. Former first overall pick David Carr played his last year for the Texans in 2006, and the team settled the position after trading for Falcons quarterback Matt Shaub.

Kubiak brought the Texans their first winning season in the franchise’s brief history, and their first two division championships in 2011 and 2012, while Shaub is still the winningest quarterback in Texans history with 46 wins.

#4. Robert Saleh – New York Jets (38% Win Percentage)

Robert Saleh was a hot coaching prospect after his time as the 49ers defensive coordinator, but a slow start in his first season led to concerns about his hiring. The Jets have consistently hired defensive-minded head coaches – he is the eighth defensive coach of the last nine head coaching hires for the team – during a time when the league has emphasized offensive hiring.

However, Saleh has the team in prime position for their first playoff appearance in a decade. While the offense has struggled with quarterback Zach Wilson, and the running game took a hit with Breece Hall’s torn ACL, the defense has looked incredible behind budding rookie star Sauce Gardner.

The Jets are 6-3 entering the second half of the season, positioned for their first playoff appearance since 2010.

Historical Comparison: Lovie Smith (48% Win Percentage)

Lovie Smith was another defensive coordinator that was hired by the Bears ahead of the 2004 season. After a disappointing 5-11 campaign in his first season, the Bears rebounded with their first of three division titles under Smith. They struggled with consistent quarterback play during his nine seasons in the Windy City, once having a different quarterback lead the team in passing for six consecutive seasons. His final record with the team was 81-63, with 3-3 in the playoffs.

#5. Dan Campbell – Detroit Lions (20% Win Percentage)

Dan Campbell has struggled to gain traction during his time in Detroit. After struggling in Year 1, the former defensive coordinator has yet to make any significant noise in the Motor City in his second year. While this is Campbell’s first ever head coaching role, he did serve as the interim coordinator for the Miami Dolphins in 2015 after the team fired Joe Philbin after a 1-3 start. That season, Campbell led the Dolphins to more wins (5) than he has led Detroit to, a result that does not bode well for the team moving forward.

Campbell has a short leash remaining in 2022. Few coaches have won fewer games than him through their first season and a half and continued into Year 3.

Historical Comparison: Jim Schwartz, Zac Taylor (15% Win Percentage)

Campbell has been off to one of the worst career-starting stretches of the last twenty years. Only four coaches started with a worse winning percentage through the first twenty-five games. However, not all is lost. Two of those four saw dramatic improvement in Year 3 – should Campbell come back – that the Lions would be ecstatic for.

In Year 3, after only six wins through his first two seasons, Zac Taylor led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl. In Year 3 as the Lions head coach, Jim Schwartz led the team to their first playoff appearance in more than a decade.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Urban Meyer – Jacksonville Jaguars

While Urban Meyer was hired during the same offseason, he failed too last even a single season, becoming the second head coach since 1994 to not complete his first NFL season as a head coach, putting him in the esteemed company of Bobby Petrino. Scandal after scandal rocked the team under the former college coach’s tutelage, ranging from allegations about kicking players in practice, to staying in Cleveland after a team loss when the team flew home.

Not only did Meyer come up last in this list, but he may also go down as one of the worst head coaching hires in NFL history. Poor performance, constant scandals, and concerns about ruining generational prospect Trevor Lawrence with poor coaching make Meyer the textbook example of ‘boom-or-bust ’ college coaching hires.

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2022 NFL Head Coaching Trees

By Stephen Juza

July 4th, 2022

Read 2023's Coaching Tree Update

Each January and February, the coaching carousel rotates as several head coaches are fired, and new coaches hired to replace them. Coaching trees expand with these changes, adding new branches, or forming their own tree altogether. While coaching trees are often open to interpretation, let’s take a look at the current NFL coaching landscape. For those interested in sport betting online, understanding these coaching changes can provide valuable insights.

Andy Reid:

The largest coaching tree for the 2022 season belongs to Andy Reid. Five different active head coaches spent time on Reid’s staff, led by Sean McDermott's 12 years as an assistant. A few things stand out about Reid’s tree beyond the breadth. Among them, it is also the only active tree in which a child coach has won a Super Bowl.

I’ve written about Reid’s coaching tree before ( Success of Modern Coaching Trees, Top Trees in History), and for another year it ranks as the top in the league. This offseason saw turnover from his former assistants: Matt Nagy was fired by the Chicago Bears (and he subsequently re-joined Reid in Kansas City), while former assistant Todd Bowles was promoted to the top job in Tampa following Bruce Arians’ retirement.

His coaching tree seems primed to continue its top ranking in the league with the emerging success of the Buffalo Bills, led by former assistant McDermott. In his five seasons as a head coach, the Bills have made the playoffs four times. You have to go back all the way to the early 1990s to find a stretch of three consecutive playoff berths for the team.

Orange coaches not active head coaches

Sean McVay:

Coming off his first Super Bowl victory, Sean McVay has a burgeoning coaching tree. Three of the last four offseasons have seen one of his top assistants hired away to head coaching positions. Through these coaches, his coaching tree has also had an early burst of success.

His opponent in the Super Bowl was led by his former quarterbacks coach, Zac Taylor. His former offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur has led the Packers to three consecutive 13-win seasons. Kevin O'Connell and Brandon Staley hope they can bring that level of success, or more, to their own teams.

With the Rams primed for continued success, his coaching staff will continue to get looks at head coaching opportunities, but the continued turnover may put a pause on his tree expanding for a few years. Key offensive coaches are entering the 2022 with limited coaching experience, which will likely give teams pause before handing over the reins of their franchise.

Bill Belichick:

While Bill Belichick may be one of the best coaches in league history, his coaching tree continues to leave a lot to be desired. While this offseason saw two more coaches hired from his tree (Brian Daboll and Josh McDaniels), it will take a lot of individual success for them to balance out the disappointment from the other coaches.

Across the ten coaches in his entire coaching tree, they have combined for only two wins in the playoffs, or one fewer than Zac Taylor had individually by his third season as head coach. Not only that, but only one of the ten coaches lasted longer than four seasons with their first head coaching job.

Daboll could be the coach to break the trend. He’s spent almost as much time with Belichick in the NFL as without, coaching under several other head coaches. This is a significant break from other coaches in Belichick’s tree - few other coaches spent significant time away from New England. The additional perspectives could serve Daboll well as he hopes to rebuild the Giants into a consistent playoff contender.

Orange coaches not active head coaches

Kyle Shanahan/Frank Reich/Mike Vrabel:

These three coaches have two coaches each that have been tapped to lead their own team, although their relatively short tenures as a head coach in their own right have led these assistant coaches to spend most of their careers on other head coaching staffs. That said, both Kyle Shanahan and Frank Reich have lost a coordinator in each of the last two seasons, with Vrabel losing two coordinators in the two seasons prior to that.

However, if their individual success continues, there will be ample opportunity for these head coaches to continue and make a mark on the coaching ranks for years to come. Shannahan, Reich, and Vrabel have combined for nine winning seasons and three conference championship appearances over the last four seasons, giving assistants plenty of opportunity to coach in big games. While there is little relationship between a coach’s success and the success of their assistant coaches, teams generally hire coaches coming from successful teams.

Remaining Coaches:

Not every coach in the league can tie their assistant coaching career to a current head coach. In some instances, like Matt Rhule or Kliff Kingsbury, they have spent their years prior to their NFL head coaching role in the college ranks. As I wrote last year, college coaches have a far more boom-or-bust nature to their coaching careers compared to a head coach from the NFL ranks. While Rhule has struggled in his NFL career thus far, Kingsbury has managed to improve the Cardinals record each of his three seasons with the team.

Other coaches, such as Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin, have simply been coaches long enough that their parent coaches have long since retired from the NFL. Despite their long, successful careers, they have no active head coaches that have spent time on their coaching staffs.

Methodology:

Coaching trees are often open to interpretation, but throughout the website we automatically place any coach in the tree of a head coach up to their first head coaching opportunity. This allows coaches to be in multiple trees, without limiting them to only one coach that they spent the most time with.

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