Pro Football History.com Blog
August 17th, 2026
The New Orleans Saints' Super Bowl XLIV triumph remains one of the NFL's great underdog stories. From a franchise with a long history of disappointment to a 13-3 regular season and a dramatic victory over the Indianapolis Colts, the Saints showed how calculated risks, resilience, and belief can turn an unlikely championship opportunity into sporting history.
On February 7, 2010, the Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Miami to claim the first Super Bowl championship in franchise history. More than a decade later, the 2009 season is still worth revisiting for those interested in broad sports coverage, like the readership of TwinSpires, because it demonstrates how an unfancied team can combine talent, tactical risk-taking and resilience to reach a position that once seemed unrealistic.
For anyone interested in sports stories, the Saints' Super Bowl XLIV season offers an especially useful example of an "edge case" win. They were not simply a bad team that got lucky for one afternoon. Instead, they built an excellent regular-season record, survived adversity in the playoffs and then produced a strategically bold performance against a heavily respected opponent.
A Franchise That Had Spent Decades Waiting
The context surrounding the Saints' victory made it particularly significant.
New Orleans had spent much of its history as one of the NFL's less successful franchises. Before the 2009 season, the team had never reached a Super Bowl. The arrival of quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton had already started to change that perception, but winning the championship required another level of performance.
The 2009 Saints provided it.
New Orleans finished the regular season 13-3, including a remarkable 13-game winning streak that established the team as one of the league's strongest contenders. Its offence was particularly explosive, leading the NFL in both points and yards. The defence, meanwhile, created 39 takeaways during the regular season.
Yet the season did not end with an effortless march towards the championship.
The Saints lost their final three regular-season games. Suddenly, a team that had looked almost unstoppable was entering the playoffs with questions about its momentum and defensive consistency.
That is one of the reasons the season is so interesting from an underdog perspective.
Winning When the Momentum Disappears
Sports narratives often focus on momentum. A team wins repeatedly, confidence grows, and the victories appear to create a path towards the championship.
The Saints' experience was different.
Their three-game losing streak meant they entered the postseason having lost their last three games. Nevertheless, they responded by beating the Arizona Cardinals 45-14 in the divisional round before overcoming the Minnesota Vikings 31-28 in overtime in the NFC Championship Game.
The Vikings game was particularly important because it demonstrated that the Saints could win without everything going according to plan.
They eventually reached the Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts, a team that had gone 14-2 during the regular season and was led by Peyton Manning, who had just won his fourth NFL MVP award.
New Orleans was consequently positioned as the underdog.
The Super Bowl Started Exactly How the Saints Did Not Want
The Colts opened Super Bowl XLIV impressively.
Indianapolis drove 96 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter, immediately putting pressure on New Orleans. The Saints eventually responded, but the Colts held a 10-6 advantage at halftime.
For an underdog facing one of the era's greatest quarterbacks, this was the moment when conventional thinking could have taken over.
Instead, Sean Payton chose to take a risk.
And it became one of the most famous decisions in Super Bowl history.
"Ambush": The Decision That Changed the Game
The Saints opened the second half with an onside kick.
Rather than giving Peyton Manning possession and hoping the defence could stop him, New Orleans attempted to steal the ball immediately. The play, known as "Ambush", had been prepared before the game after the Saints identified a potential weakness in Indianapolis' kick-return formation.
The Saints recovered.
That single decision changed the psychological landscape of the game.
New Orleans suddenly had possession, momentum and an opportunity to take the lead. Six plays later, Pierre Thomas scored on a 16-yard catch-and-run, putting the Saints ahead 13-10.
Indianapolis responded with another touchdown, but the Saints continued to attack. Drew Brees eventually connected with Jeremy Shockey for a touchdown, and New Orleans established a 24-17 advantage.
The lesson for anyone following unusual sporting victories is obvious: sometimes an underdog cannot afford to simply play the favourite's game.
Drew Brees Delivers on the Biggest Stage
The Saints' aggressive approach still needed an elite quarterback to execute it.
Brees provided exactly that.
In Super Bowl XLIV, he completed 32 of 39 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns without throwing an interception. His accuracy helped New Orleans maintain possession and control the pace of the contest.
That performance is important because underdog stories can sometimes become overly focused on dramatic moments.
The onside kick was spectacular. Tracy Porter's interception was unforgettable. But the Saints also needed sustained execution between those moments.
Brees supplied it.
The Saints eventually led 24-17 before Manning received one final opportunity to bring the Colts back into the game.
Tracy Porter's Pick-Six Completes the Story
With Indianapolis driving late in the fourth quarter, Manning attempted to find a receiver on a crucial third down.
Saints cornerback Tracy Porter read the play, intercepted the pass and returned it 74 yards for a touchdown.
The play gave New Orleans a 31-17 lead with just 3:12 remaining and effectively ended the contest.
It was an appropriate conclusion to the Saints' season.
Their championship had been built around creating opportunities, exploiting weaknesses and making decisive plays when the stakes were highest.
August 16th, 2026
August football is full of noise, but buried inside it are clues that can change what you expect from September. The trick is knowing which ones deserve your attention.
The NFL preseason is underway, and the next few weeks will tell us far more than the final scores suggest. Ten teams have new head coaches in 2026, several quarterback jobs are still being decided and every roster has to be cut to 53 players by August 30. For fans trying to work out what September might bring, August gives us some useful clues.
Ten New Coaches Make August More Useful
Ten NFL teams entered 2026 with new head coaches, which gives preseason football a little extra value this year. Arizona is starting the Mike LaFleur era, while Pittsburgh has brought Mike McCarthy back together with Aaron Rodgers after their years in Green Bay. Each staff has spent the summer teaching a different system, and August provides the first chance to see that work against another team.
The final score tells you very little about whether a coach has everything working after a few weeks. Personnel choices are more revealing. Which quarterback gets an extra series, or which player stays on the field when a drive becomes important, can tell you far more about what the coaching staff is thinking.
Roster Cuts Give Late Games Their Real Stakes
The final preseason weekend runs from August 27 through August 29, and the pressure arrives almost immediately afterwards. Every club must reduce its roster to a maximum of 53 players by 6 p.m. ET on August 30.
That makes those last games hugely important for players sitting near the bottom of the depth chart. A reserve receiver or third quarterback may only get a handful of useful snaps, but those plays can decide whether he makes the roster or is looking for another team the following week.
Preseason Signals Reach the Betting Market
Preseason also changes the information available to bettors before Week 1. A quarterback competition can move quickly once both players face a live defense, and a new coaching system can make a team easier to judge once there is actual game tape rather than practice reports.
That makes preseason useful for bettors as well as coaches because expectations start becoming measurable once actual players are taking live snaps. Sportsbook Review details a Stake welcome offer for eligible Canadian players built around a 200% first-deposit match worth up to about C$4,200, with a C$15 minimum deposit and 40x playthrough requirement.
The useful part of August is knowing which information deserves attention. A fourth-quarter comeback by reserve players may mean very little for September, but a quarterback losing first-team snaps or a starter struggling with a new system deserves a closer look.
Young Quarterbacks Get the Snaps That Count
Quarterback battles give preseason some of its clearest storylines because there is nowhere to hide once the ball is live. Carson Beck entered Arizona’s summer behind Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II, while No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza has been learning behind Kirk Cousins in Las Vegas.
Indianapolis has an even stranger situation. Anthony Richardson was the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, yet he entered camp behind Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard after appearing in only 17 NFL games. He has completed 50.6% of his passes, with 11 passing touchdowns against 13 interceptions. August reps carry genuine weight when a former top-five pick is fighting his way back up a depth chart.
Seattle Returns With a Different Kind of Pressure
Seattle enters this preseason from a very different position after winning the most recent Super Bowl. Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks finished the 2025 regular season at 14-3 and then went 3-0 in the playoffs, giving the franchise its second championship under a coaching line that stretches back through some very different eras.
For Seattle, August is less about proving that the program works and more about preparing the pieces needed for another run. Established starters do not need to win exhibition games to confirm what February already told us.
New England Starts From the Other Side of February
New England reached the same Super Bowl but came away with a very different memory of it. That makes the Patriots an interesting preseason team because their recent success gives them something solid to build from, yet there is still a clear gap between reaching the championship game and winning it.
The franchise has gone through several coaching eras on its way back to February, which gives the current team plenty of history sitting behind it. Preseason gives the latest group a chance to begin writing its next chapter before the games start counting.
Read August for Clues, Not Answers
Preseason football becomes much easier to read once you stop treating every result as a prediction. Established stars may barely play, and coaches are often testing players rather than chasing the scoreboard.
The better clues sit underneath the result: who earns extra snaps, which quarterback moves up the depth chart and whether a new coaching staff gets its ideas onto the field cleanly. By the time the regular season begins on September 9, plenty of August football will already have been forgotten, but some of those small signs will have told us exactly where to look.
August 15th, 2026
NFL totals are hard to make since scoring in the NFL is not based on just offense. Averages of matchups can be pushed off points-per-game with tempo, play calling and game script. In addition to seeing how teams score efficiently, bettors who are studying NFL lines should also be looking for how teams break the possession.
PROE can show a bettor which passing direction is expected after the situation is taken into account before they pick an Over or Under, or check the current NFL lines before they are updated. It is used in conjunction with pace to provide a "faster" insight into the flow of a game than an average.
What exactly is PROE?
PROE does not stand for Pace and Run over Expectation; it is a term that describes the Pass Rate OVER the Expectation. Use the standard definition for establish, as are The Run and nflfastR. nflfastR attempts to give an expected probability of a dropback (xpass) for each offensive play based on down, distance, time remaining, field position and score differential. Scrambles are considered called passes.
The PROE of a team is the difference between their actual pass rate and their anticipated pass rate. The PROE for an offense, which lost on 61% of its plays while the model predicted it would lose on 57%, is four points positive. Positive PROE: More passes than expected are thrown; Negative PROE: More runs than expected are thrown. In NFL betting analytics, pace is not a part of PROE, but rather an umbrella term.
Component 1: Offensive Pace
Pace is the speed at which the offense runs. Analysts can be using seconds per play, play-clock usage or plays per minute. Neutral pace is important to use because averages can be distorted by two-minute drills and blowouts. A team that is snapping with 15 seconds to play left in the clock has more opportunity to get another play off than a team that is waiting to snap repeatedly when it has only five seconds to play. The speed of games can create additional drives and scoring opportunities; slow attacks can reduce possession count.
Component 2: Run Over Expectation (ROE)
Passing side play calling tendency is expressed by PROE. If it is a positive reading, the offense is occurring at a higher rate than it would on an average team under the same conditions, a negative reading indicates more rushing.
The opposite is “run over expectation.” The run-pass ratio can be a false gauge of philosophy, as teams behind can pass more. PROE is a more informative measure than raw pass rate as it takes into account the game environment.
Changes to the clock dynamic go through passing. The game clock cannot be stopped by an incomplete pass, but many runs in bounds will continue the game clock. More passing will allow more snaps, but completions, sacks, scrambles and boundary plays are all going to make that relationship tricky if not complicated.
The link: how PROE directly impacts Over/Under betting
With NFL totals betting, Over environments can be swift and offer a positive PROE. Both teams make plays effectively and pass frequently based on the situation. That could be more stoppages, more possessions, more explosive-play opportunities.
The inverse can be used for an Under with a very negative PROE and slow pace. If both offenses are active for more than expected and are taking up play time, they can lose possession in the match.
Let's look at two possible teams that have positive PROE scores but are tied for first in the league in adjusted pace. They will have good match-up potential for shootouts due to their ability to keep the ball out of their own hands and get the ball up and into the air. While it does not always result in an Over, it does mean that bettors are forced to consider a low total.
Establish The Run provides PROE data, nflfastR-based analysis and nfelo provides pace reports. A cleaner way is to have separate pace and PROE columns.
How to apply PROE to your weekly NFL betting strategy
Use the total on the board as a starting point. Second, write down each team's PROE and a neutral or adjusted pace measure. Third, determine if it is a fast versus fast, fast versus slow, pass-heavy versus run-heavy or mixed matchup.
After which, compare that with the sportsbook number. A low total on two quick positive-PROE offenses warrants investigation. If the two teams are slow and both are negative PROE, then it should trigger the opposite question. It's not about mechanical betting, but uncovering discrepancies that warrant further investigation.
Consider the neutral script or context adjusted samples to be important. Establish The Run, for instance, with a neutral PROE view that takes out spikes, kneels, last two minutes of each half, blowouts and unusual plays. Large leads and chasing points make for different behaviors.
Look for changes in recent history. Changes in personnel, quarterback moves, coaching changes and offensive-line woes can make trends go stale in the season. Sharp NFL betting analysis considers PROE to be a measure of intent, and not of identity.
Context is key: PROE is a tool, not a magic bullet
You should not count on one statistic when it comes to no over under betting strategy. Defensive efficiency, such as DVOA or EPA, is important as the more possessions you have, the more you need to convert. Red-zone performance will be used to determine if a touchdown will be awarded or a field goal will be allowed. Quarterback and line injuries may have an impact on efficiency and play selection. Wind, precipitation and extreme temperatures can affect passing and kicking.
It's not just about the market context, either. These factors are studied by sportsbooks and the advanced bettor, and a very apparent pace-and-PROE matchup might already have been factored into the total. The edge is that you can determine if the adjustment is adequate or not.
The value of PROE is a diagnosis. The pass is one of the things that gets removed from the game-script noise, and it demonstrates the intensity with which an offense selects the pass vs. what is expected. Pace is a measure of how fast that offense gets its next snap. These far more sophisticated NFL statistics give a more realistic estimate of play volume and game texture.
Using football analytics to place an NFL totals bet is as simple as: begin with the market number, test it against pace and PROE, and then layer in efficiency, injury, and matchup factors and weather. In NFL analysis, the PROE stat isn't going to determine the final score. It can reveal when underlying assumptions under a point total should be looked at more carefully.
By Stephen Juza,
August 9th, 2026
After a long offseason, the season opener is just a few short weeks away. In one month, the New England Patriots will travel West to take on the Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of February’s Super Bowl. Undoubtedly there are countless storylines with the upcoming season which we will have several articles to cover. But in today’s article, we will be covering our 2026 season predictions using our Elo model that we wrote about a few months ago.
Elo rankings are a way to capture how strong a team represents at that point in time. Realistically, the higher Elo ranking will win the majority of the time, but the NFL season offers many challenges not captured by traditional Elo rankings (most commonly used in chess). Among them, home field advantage, injuries, and an offseason that effectively resets the team’s roster. While top teams typically will continue to be at the top due to continuity with All-Pro players and coaching staffs, we do regress teams a bit to the average at the start of the season.
For today’s article, we simulated the entire season using the Elo ranking each team will have entering the 2026 season, and updating it each week based on the simulated outcomes. For example, if a team wins in the simulated game, their Elo will increase the next week. If they lose, their Elo will decrease. Over the course of the season, the strongest (simulated) teams will rise to the top. We will go in depth with each division in the coming weeks, but for today, we will cover the top league-wide predictions.
With the NFL season starting soon, there will be increased opportunities from a variety of websites such as betnow sportsbook to wager on a variety of NFL storylines all season long.
AFC Division Winners
Get ready to celebrate an AFC South title, Jacksonville. With a record of 13-4, our Elo model predicts that the Jaguars will not only win the AFC South, but finish with the best record in all of the NFL. Not only will they enter with the best record, but we have them entering the playoffs as one of the hottest teams across the NFL with six straight victories, including four divisional victories.
Among the other divisions, we predict that the Baltimore Ravens (12-5), New England Patriots (12-5), and the Kansas City Chiefs (10-7) will round out the division winners. While Baltimore will wrap up the division with a few weeks to go in the season, the Patriots will stumble into the playoffs with back-to-back losses and just barely edge out the Buffalo Bills. Speaking up limping into the playoffs, the Chiefs will just barely edge out the Broncos with both teams ending at 10-7 and the Chiefs ending with three straight losses.
NFC Division Winners
While the offseason was filled with memes about the potential of the Chicago Bears becoming the Gary Bears with their new stadium, here’s one thing that is not a joke. We predict that the Bears will not only win the NFC North for the second straight year, but be the top seed in the NFC with an 11-6 record. Wrapping up the top seed by finishing the 2026 season on a three-game win streak, it will give the voters a reason to award him the Coach of the Year honors that he barely missed out on last season.
While the Bears will edge out the Washington Commanders and the Carolina Panthers, both finishing the season at 10-7. The race for the NFC will be especially tight, as all four division winners finished within one game of each other, and with all wild card winners also finishing within one game of each other.
First Overall Pick
With the playoff field set, who will be playing for draft position as their season-long storyline? Coming in at a simulated 4-13, the Tennessee Titans will be drafting first overall for the second time in three years. While they will not be opening their new stadium as a winning squad, having several top picks should at least give the team a reason for optimism. Hopefully.
Rounding out the other teams in contention for the first overall pick will be the Cincinnati Bengals (5-12) and the New York Jets (5-11-1). These records bode poorly for head coaches Zac Taylor and Aaron Glenn who likely will not survive the season posting these records.
In the coming articles, we will recap each division's simulated season and how dominant storylines may shape the discourse over the course of the 2026 season.
August 2nd, 2026
The NFL has room for a quarterback chasing history, a defender turning mistakes into touchdowns and a franchise rising from a decade in the wilderness. The funny part is that every fan has a stat they trust too much, right up until the next Sunday gives them another one.
July is when NFL fans dig up numbers that looked harmless in January, then wonder whether they will still carry weight by Week 1. A receiver responsible for 44% of his team’s passing game or a quarterback closing on a six-season record can change a conversation fast. The league has always produced stats that sound made up; the best ones tell you what happened when games became serious.
Young Stars Already Chasing Impossible Benchmarks
Justin Herbert finished his sixth NFL season with 24,820 passing yards, second only to Peyton Manning’s 24,885 through the same stage. Herbert also had 163 touchdown passes, placing him fifth behind Dan Marino’s record of 196. That is proper company for a quarterback heading into year seven.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards in 2025 and accounted for 44.1% of Seattle’s receiving yardage. Bijan Robinson led the NFL with 2,298 scrimmage yards, taking his career total to 5,648. He had already passed Christian McCaffrey’s previous under-24 record of 5,443 during Week 17. The numbers give 2026 some interesting prospects!
One Number Changes a Whole Conversation
A total only gets interesting when you put it beside the rest of the team. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 1,793 receiving yards led the NFL, but his 44.1% share of Seattle’s receiving yardage says even more. Defenses knew where the ball was likely to go and still struggled to stop him.
Justin Herbert finished only 65 passing yards behind Peyton Manning’s record through six seasons, which turns a huge career total into a genuine near miss. Bijan Robinson had already passed Christian McCaffrey’s under-24 scrimmage-yard record before the season ended. Those comparisons give fans something concrete to argue about, because one big Sunday can rewrite a record book and one poor game can leave a player painfully close.
Training Camp Numbers Become Week 1 Decisions
Summer arguments turn into real NFL betting calls when a player’s 2025 total becomes a 2026 prop. Herbert’s passing pace and Smith-Njigba’s workload give fans a starting point, although the price and terms still decide whether a wager has any value.
Covers puts those questions beside practical checks Canadian fans need before opening weekend, with its guide to the best betting sites online. NFL odds sit beside prop projections, picks, injury news and weather, while the Canada betting material follows banking methods, payout speed and provincial access. Its withdrawal checks involve $10 test wagers, and payouts beyond 24 hours receive lower grades. That is useful once you have picked a side.
Rod Woodson Made Interceptions Look Like Offense
Rod Woodson returned 12 interceptions for touchdowns, still the NFL regular-season record. His first came in 1987; his last, a 98-yard return against Denver, came in 2002. The scoring plays covered eight seasons, three teams and 11 different quarterbacks.
Woodson’s pick-sixes totaled 633 yards, or 52.8 yards each, and his teams went 12-0 in those games. That removes any doubt about their value. An interception can be repaired; an interception that reaches the end zone changes the whole afternoon. Charles Woodson finished one behind him on 11, but Rod still owns the record.
Tampa Bay Turned a Lost Decade Into a Perfect Postseason
Tampa Bay went 59-101 in the 2010s and did not play a single postseason game. The Buccaneers won no division titles, finishing fourth in the NFC South with a 37% win percentage. There was no late-season surge hidden inside that decade.
Then the 2020 playoffs arrived. Tampa Bay won four games and took Super Bowl LV. The current decade has brought a 59-42 regular-season record, six playoff wins and four division titles. A bad run can last years, but this league can change a franchise’s story in four January games.
Don McCafferty Had the Smallest Win Total of Any Super Bowl Coach
Don McCafferty won 28 games as a head coach, the fewest by anyone who won a Super Bowl. That statistic would raise eyebrows before the first training-camp practice today, yet it misses the one season his Colts got every important call right.
Baltimore went 11-2-1 in 1970 and beat Dallas 16-13 in Super Bowl V. McCafferty’s Colts record was 22-10-1 across three seasons before he was fired in the middle of the 1972 season. One championship does not always create a long career, but it can leave a coach with a stranger legacy than a bigger win total ever could.
NFL Numbers Never Stay Simple
Herbert’s total tells you about a fast start; Smith-Njigba’s percentage tells you about an offense. Woodson’s 12 pick-sixes tell you what happens when one bad throw turns into points. Context is the bit that separates a good stat from a useful one.
Keep that in mind when the 2026 season begins. One figure can make a player look unstoppable, a team hopeless or a coach bigger than his career was. Put it beside the game around it, and you have an argument worth bringing back next Sunday.