Pro Football History.com Blog

In the majority of cases, odds matter because they reflect the reality of the involved competitors. Talent, work ethic, cohesion, and concentration show themselves when things matter most. However, sports represent a reality that always rears its head: life is unpredictable in the most surprising possible ways.

The NFL and professional football, in particular, are cases in which a slew of things need to go well throughout a season. Whether it’s roster management, avoiding injuries, good play-calling, or pristine execution, too many factors must work well. As the BetBrain odds calculator proves, all these elements reflect how bookmakers perceive a team’s chances.

Throughout the Super Bowl era, some examples have proven that a team must have a complete run if it wants to be the champion. As such, there have been famous instances when the favorites simply couldn’t get it done.

Whether it was a collapse or a once-in-a-lifetime performance, underdogs have always been shining stories that inspire us. Let’s look at some of the most famous examples throughout the Super Bowl era in the National Football League!

Broadway Joe’s Legendary Run to Clinch Super Bowl III

For all his faults, controversies, and indictments of being an overrated Hall of Famer, Joe Namath is a staple of NFL, quarterback, and Jets history. The New York Jets have deservedly earned the reputation of a dysfunctional franchise, but there was a time when they captured the hearts of all the NFL community.

Super Bowl III saw the Don Shula-coached Baltimore Colts, quarterbacked by Johnny Unitas, start as -18 favorites for the big game. On the other hand, the NY Jets were the representatives of the weaker AFL. After painstakingly taking down the better-perceived Oakland Raiders, their quest to grab the big trophy looked impossible.

This didn’t stop Broadway Joe from making his famous guarantee at a Miami Club. He told the audience that the Jets were going to win the game and even guaranteed it. Despite not even throwing a touchdown during the game, he had a solid performance, connecting with George Sauer Jr 8 times and completing 17 of his 28 passes.

Despite Namath winning the Super Bowl MVP, the only touchdown of the game was the effort of another big performer, running back Matt Snell. His touchdown during the 2nd quarter was one of 30 carries, yielding 121 yards. While still holding up as the only ring in Jets history, this legendary underdog victory is still the shiniest spot in franchise history.

Enter Tom Brady – Super Bowl XXXVI and The End of the Greatest Show on Turf

If we were to define the prototypical NFL underdog, his portrait would be Tom Brady. Starting as an unathletic 6th round pick under franchise QB Drew Bledsoe is no easy thing. As we all know, Brady overcame his apparent deficiencies and made the most out of his opportunity to turn into the greatest quarterback of all time.

After an absurdly great ascension during the 1999 season and a major hiccup during the 2000 outing, the Greatest Show on Turf returned for 2001. After a statistical gem as a starting QB, Kurt Warner was back into the fold, leading the St. Louis Rams to a 14-2 record and a strong claim as favorites for the Lombardi.

Brady, who came in for Bledsoe after a fateful injury during the start of the season, played his ultra efficient football, had decent stats, and even made the Pro Bowl. Despite a difficult start to the season, the newly invigorated New England Patriots also played with a ravenous Belichick defense but were still 14-point underdogs to the Rams.

The 20-17 result ushered an era that the haters consider the rise of an evil empire. However, the truth is that this game saw Brady vanquish his first foe in the battle for the alpha NFL QB status and launch the most successful NFL dynasty to date.

Super Bowl XLII – The Greatest Perfect Season That Never Was

We return to the Patriots after jumping 6 years into the future. Brady was a 3-time champion, the Patriots defense was running rampant, and Randy Moss was showing that his unsuccessful stint was an aberration, not proof of being washed.

Whenever you ask an NFL fan to name the greatest team ever assembled, they’ll likely name the 2007 Patriots. Eight Pro Bowlers, five All-Pros, and an all-time great performance over a season take the cake. Moreover, they went undefeated during the regular season and steamrolled their way through the playoffs.

However, the less successful of the Manning brothers and his New York Giants had something to say. As you surely know, this was the first painful loss that Eli administered to Brady in the Super Bowl. The Giants finished as a 10-6 Wildcard and sought to take down the undefeated, 12-point favorite Pats.

After a defensive grinder that saw a scoreless 3rd quarter, the 4th quarter was when all hell broke loose. It took one of the greatest NFL offensive drives to topple a Moss touchdown catch with 2:42 to go.

The legendary drive that saw David Tyree, Steve Smith, and Plaxico Buress make game-clinching catches turned Super Bowl XLII into an all-time great upset, but also into an all-time great football game.

Wide Right and The Heartbreak of Super Bowl XXV

Despite having easily identifiable causes, the Bills’ steak of 4 straight Super Bowl losses is still a mind-numbing phenomenon. Some losses made more sense than others, and the pain of these defeats is still a looming scar over the history of the Buffalo Bills.

None of these losses is as painful as the first of them. Despite giving the hope that the Jim Kelly-led team would be back (and they were, but not as champions), the Wide Right moment is still absolutely heart-wrenching and serves as a painful upset.

At the end of the 1990 NFL season, the Bills and the football Giants of New York met in Tampa to settle the game between one of the best offenses (the Bills) and defenses (the Giants). This was one of the first Belichick (then the defensive coordinator for the Giants) defensive masterclasses.

Despite starting as 7-point favorites, the Bills weren’t very comfortable throughout the game, especially in the second half. After losing the lead in the 3rd quarter, the 4th quarter saw Scott Norwood’s 47-yard last-second field goal go wide right. Losing on a last-second play by a point in the biggest game of your life must be unimaginable.

Conclusion

The world of sports can be as cruel as it can be gratifying. The love for the game is what drives athletes forward, even when the odds do not favor them in the slightest. The story of NFL underdogs who defeated their own disadvantages is concrete proof that one can predict success but cannot clearly determine it!

Wide receivers in the NFL are special. While all the attention goes to the QB, it’s the wide receivers who bring the excitement to the game. They can catch the ball, beat defenders and turn short into long. They’re essential. But in the long history of the NFL, some wide receivers have been far better than others. They weren’t just good, they were game-changers. They changed football, the position of wide receiver and the game in ways few others could.

As you look at the football odds today on ClubSport, whether you’re thinking of the current stars or the legends of the past, it’s hard not to think of the wide receivers who defined the position. This article takes a look at five of the best wide receivers in NFL history—players who not only broke records but also changed the game.

1. Jerry Rice

When you think of wide receivers, Jerry Rice is the first name that comes to mind. His numbers speak for themselves. 20 seasons, 1,549 receptions, 22,895 receiving yards. Both records. No one has matched those numbers, and it’s unlikely anyone will for a long time. But what makes Rice the best isn’t just the numbers—it’s the whole career.

Rice was drafted 16th overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 1985. He showed promise in his rookie season but it was his second season that his star really took off. He developed a chemistry with Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana and later Steve Young. That chemistry defined the 49ers offense which became one of the best in NFL history.

Rice was known for his unmatched work ethic. He worked harder in the offseason than most players do during the regular season. His “hill workouts” where he would sprint up steep inclines in the California sun became legendary. His focus and discipline translated to the field where his precise route running and sure hands made him almost unstoppable. Defenders knew the ball was coming his way and yet he still produced at an elite level.

His awards are impressive too. Thirteen time Pro Bowl, 10 time All-Pro and three time Super Bowl champion with the 49ers. His Super Bowl XXIII MVP performance is one of the greatest in NFL history. There may never be another wide receiver who has Rice’s durability, production and leadership. He changed the position.

2. Randy Moss

If Rice was the gold standard of consistency, Randy Moss was the definition of raw talent. Moss had a skill set no one else had: size, speed, and jumping ability. He was a nightmare for defenses. When Moss was on the field, he changed how defenses played. They had to double and sometimes triple team him knowing he could blow the top off the defense at any moment.

Moss entered the league in 1998 after being taken 21st overall by the Minnesota Vikings. From day one he made his presence known. His rookie season is one of the best ever for a wide receiver. He had 1,313 yards and 17 touchdowns. His deep ball ability became a big part of the Vikings offense and his 1998 season helped the team set the NFL record for most points in a season.

Throughout his career Moss’s ability to track and catch deep balls was unmatched. His “Mossed” highlights—when he out-jumped multiple defenders to come down with impossible catches—are still shown daily. Though his career was marred by some off the field controversy his on field dominance was undeniable. He finished with 156 career touchdown receptions second only to Jerry Rice.

One of his best seasons was 2007 when he joined the New England Patriots. That year he and Tom Brady were unstoppable. Moss and Brady led the Patriots to a perfect regular season. Moss caught 23 touchdown passes that year the most in NFL history. He cemented his place as one of the greatest wide receivers of all time.

3. Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald may not have had the athleticism of Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson but what he brought to the field was consistency and reliability. Over his 17 year career with the Arizona Cardinals Fitzgerald became known for his sure hands and near-perfect route running. If the ball was thrown to him you could almost guarantee he’d catch it.

Fitzgerald is second all time in career receptions (1,432) and receiving yards (17,492) behind only Jerry Rice. He never had the flash of some other receivers but he always showed up in big moments. Maybe no moment defined his career more than the 2008 playoff run when he helped lead the Arizona Cardinals to their first ever Super Bowl appearance. During that playoff run Fitzgerald was unstoppable. He had 30 receptions for 546 yards and 7 touchdowns in 4 games.

4. Calvin Johnson

Nicknamed "Megatron," Calvin Johnson was a physical specimen unlike any other receiver in NFL history. Standing at 6’5” and weighing 237 pounds, Johnson combined size, strength, and speed in a way that made him virtually unguardable. Johnson played just nine seasons in the NFL, all with the Detroit Lions, but in that short time, he left an indelible mark on the game.

In 2012, Johnson set the single-season record for receiving yards at 1,964 yards, surpassing Jerry Rice's previous record. He was consistently the focal point of the Lions’ offense, facing double and triple coverage regularly. Despite the attention, Johnson thrived, racking up 83 touchdowns and seven 1,000-yard seasons in his nine-year career.

5. Terrell Owens

Terrell Owens was one of the most controversial yet dominant wide receivers in NFL history. His combination of size, speed, and strength made him nearly impossible to defend one-on-one. Owens finished his career with 1,078 receptions, 15,934 receiving yards, and 153 touchdowns, ranking in the top five in all three categories.

Beyond his physical gifts, Owens was known for his passionate (and sometimes fiery) personality. Though he had contentious relationships with several teams, his on-field production was undeniable. He earned six Pro Bowl selections and was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2018.

Conclusion

Each of these five wide receivers brought something different to the NFL. Whether it was Rice's consistency, Moss's big-play ability, Fitzgerald's hands, Johnson's physical dominance, or Owens' competitive fire, they all left a lasting impact on the game. The next time you check the football odds today on platforms like ClubSport, remember that these legends helped shape the game you see today.

It can be said that the NFL today is no longer simply based on playing the sport with one's body and instinct. Modern NFL teams focus more on details and employ various analytical approaches, which begin with decisions on strategy for a game and the players who will be involved.

With the use of complex software and advanced algorithms, data analytics is evidently changing the very nature of football club management. The article describes how NFL organizations work with big data and analytics and how modern technologies Are transforming strategy in the sport.

The Role of Data in Game Analysis

NFL teams use historical and current game data to make analytical sense of what happens during games. Imagine the amount of data created during an NFL game; every pass, rush, block, and tackle is recorded and studied.

Pre-Game Analysis: Opponent Insights and Tendencies

Before a game, teams attempt to analyze an opponent thoroughly through a vast amount of data from past matches. An example of this is teams examining past performances to look for patterns, tendencies, and weaknesses in their opponents. Coaches might realize that a certain type of play is very often run for on third down or that a certain cornerback gets picked on by fast wide receivers.

Predictive analytics tools inform software teams of decisions being made. They look at historical data and can predict which plays an opponent is most likely to call in different situations. Machine learning models offer the opportunity to take in variables like down, distance, time on the clock, or field position and make predictions of where their opponent will throw the ball next.

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In-Game Analysis: Real-Time Adjustments

Real-time game analysis is one of the most critical data applications in the NFL. On the pitch, teams rely on a mix of camera feeds, tracking motion, and sophisticated software to instantly give coaches and players feedback on how to play better.

Of the leading tools in this area, the NFL’s Next Gen Stats platform is one of them. It tracks a player’s movements on the field by using RFID chips embedded in the player's shoulder pads. This real-time data is streamed to team staff as it is being generated, allowing team staff to see key metrics such as player speed, acceleration, distance covered, and separation from defenders.

Real-time analytics facilitate faster decision-making on the sidelines. For instance, data allows coaches to coach a wide receiver mismatch against the opposing secondary and adjust play calls. Coaches might also see that a play type lends itself to one defensive formation over another, instantly causing them to initiate a defense and sometimes an offence in response.

Optimizing Strategy with Advanced Analytics

NFL teams don’t just use data to analyze plays, they use data to optimize the overall strategy of the game. The NFL is a growing trend of using win probability models, which calculate what the probability of winning is at any given time in the game, based on things like score, time remaining, field position, and down and distance. Among these models are used to inform critical third and fourth down decisions, whether to go for it or punt the ball.

Play-Calling Optimization

More and more, NFL teams are beginning to use play prediction models to simulate the outcomes of their possible play calls. These models can evaluate various factors, including defensive formations, offensive personnel, and game situations, and suggest which play is most beneficial.

Fourth-Down Decisions

NFL coaches have generally been conservative with calls on fourth down, punting, or kicking a field goal more than calling for a go-ahead touchdown. However, analytics have induced aggressive decision-making. Now, teams use models to try to quantify the impact of attempting a fourth-down conversion based on Expected Points Added (EPA) or Win Probability Added (WPA).

Data-Driven Player Selection and Evaluation

Player evaluation and selection is another area where data analytics has completely changed the way the NFL operates. From the NFL Draft to free agency to the daily roster game, teams now rely on sophisticated data models to assess players' potential and performance.

Draft and Scouting Analytics

For years, NFL teams have relied on subjective reports and the results from the 40-yard dash or vertical jump. Today, these traditional methods are complemented by data analytics to attempt to predict a player’s future performance. With predictive models, teams research a player’s college stats, tendencies, and historical parallel to predict a player’s performance at the professional level.

Roster Management and Free Agency

Data is also used by teams during the off-season when evaluating free agents or managing rosters during the season. They’ve even spun things as far as they can be spun and developed advanced metrics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) so that teams can compare players to one another on a much smaller unit.

Algorithms and Software Programs in Use

Now, a number of software platforms and algorithms are woven into a data analysis standard for every NFL team. Below are some of the most commonly used tools:

• Pro Football Focus (PFF): Every season, PFF grades every player on every play of every game, giving teams a detailed look at how they played each week. Many teams have relied on PFF data to guide player evaluations and game strategies.

• Catapult Sports is a very popular wearable technology platform that tracks player movements, fatigue, and performance metrics. It is widely used in player health and injury prevention.

• AWS Next Gen Stats: This platform uses RFID technology to enable real-time player tracking and advanced analytics beyond reporting speed acceleration and positioning.

Conclusion

As teams work to strengthen their management processes, the NFL is developing a strong interest in Big Data analytics. Thanks to modern algorithms, software, and analytical models, the NFL gains a competitive advantage on the field and off it. Technologies are changing every day, and as data analysis in the NFL goes to the next level, it will enhance further change in football.

October 6th, 2024

The NFL is one of the most exciting sports on the planet. People around the world tune in each week throughout the season with millions enjoying the stunning Super Bowl showpiece final every February. Teams in the NFL are packed with star talent all over the field which adds to the entertainment value.

One of the key roles is that of running back, with these players tasked with advancing with the ball and making as many yards as possible after receiving a handoff from the quarterback. This article will assess the top players in this position for the current campaign.

Christian McCaffrey

The San Francisco 49ers star is widely considered one of the best running backs in the NFL. McCaffrey was a key man last time out, earning a host of Offensive Player of the Year awards as he ran the 49ers to the Super Bowl final. Against the Kansas City Chiefs, McCaffrey rushed 22 times for 80 yards and also caught all of his targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. The 28-year-old also made history, becoming the first player in the Super Bowl to have at least 75 rushing yards and 75 receiving yards in one game.

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An integral part of Kyle Shanahan's current set-up, McCaffrey is enjoying his prime years and was rewarded with a two-year extension worth $38million for his consistently fine performances. Though currently sidelined with a calf and Achilles injury, he is still expected to have a big impact this NFL campaign.

Derrick Henry

Joining the Baltimore Ravens this year, Henry is world-class and his numbers show he is one of the best running backs currently playing having recorded more than 2,700 yards and 27 touchdowns in the last two seasons for the Tennessee Titans. Set to turn 31 at the start of 2025, Henry is vastly experienced and will thrive alongside quarterback Lamar Jackson.

In terms of his size and power, Henry has been compared to a linebacker as he stands at 6ft 2in and uses his strength and dominance to get the better of the opposition. However, despite his great stature, the running back is also speedy making him a tricky customer to come up against.

Bijan Robinson

The fact Bijan Robinson was No. 8 pick in last year's NFL draft points to the potential the 22-year-old possesses and the Atlanta Falcons running back enjoyed an impressive debut campaign, being named in the PFWA All-Rookie Team.

Recording 1,443 yards from scrimmage was ranked sixth among his counterparts, Robinson also made 5.4 yards per touch which was the third best ranking. The rookie made 16 starts in the NFL in the last campaign and finished with 214 carries and four receiving touchdowns. The youngster has been tipped to push 2,000 yards and it seems the Falcons will build the team with Robinson in mind as a key player while handing him a major role.

Breece Hall

The New York Jets man saw his early NFL promise curtailed by injury but now he is back he will be eager to remind every fan of his talent. Hall was the first running back to be selected in the 2022 NFL draft and his explosive style certainly caught the eye. Last season, the 23-year-old played in every game and rushed for 994 yards.

Hall comes from a family of great NFL pedigree with his step-father Jeff Smith appearing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs while his cousin Kenton Keith also featured for the Jets two decades ago.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley spent six seasons with the New York Giants before joining the Philadelphia Eagles in March 2024, putting pen to paper on a three-year deal worth $37.75million. The 27-year-old from the Bronx made an immediate impact for his new team, rushing 109 yards with two rushing touchdowns before receiving a touchdown as Philadelphia beat the Green Bay Packers. The display earned Barkley the NFC Offensive Player of the Week award as he became the first Eagles to score three touchdowns on debut since Terrell Owens 20 two decades ago.

Jahmyr Gibbs

The Detroit Lions youngster filled in for David Montgomery last campaign having been the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft and was part of one of the best backfields as the team won their first play-off game in 30 years. On his debut when the NFL kicked off, the Georgia-born running back rushed for 42 yards as the Lions narrowly defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. Gibbs was later voted to the Pro Bowl and the PFWA All-Rookie team having averaged 112 scrimmage yards each game.

Wrapping Up

From watching games to making predictions around potential winners, it's imperative you have a strong grasp of who the key players are for each team. The top running backs are playing an important role in a number of set-ups and there is nothing like watching a player running at full speed to make the difference. McCaffrey, Henry, Robinson, Hall, Barkley and Gibbs are all set for huge NFL campaigns in 2024.

October 6th, 2024

Since football was incepted in the late 19th century, the game has gone through various rule changes, evolving the sport from being brutal and chaotic into a more strategic and calculated sport. This evolution in the rules has both reshaped the gameplay and scoring, but it has also influenced beyond the field, such as how fans and analysts approach aspects such as betting. This has created new dynamics affecting match predictions and analysis of outcomes.

The early days of the sport

Football originated in the 1800s as a variation of rugby and soccer. However, the sport did not start resembling what it is today until Walter Camp started to innovate the sport. Some of the concepts introduced by Camp includes the line of scrimmage, the system of downs, and the forward pass. These modifications changed the nature of the sport, from being a purely physical contest to one of tactics and timing. Legalized in 1906, the forward pass opened up the field, and suddenly a new type of element was introduced: aerial offense. Such early rule changes were also implemented to reduce injuries, while also fueling a new style of play, one that was more strategic and fast-paced.

The forward pass and other innovations added strategic depth to the game in the early 20th century. However, most teams continued to rely on a playing style focusing on short, power-running plays. The full potential of these early 20th century changes was not fully realized until later.

Bigger changes in the mid-20th century

Various key rule changes were introduced during the 1940s and 1950s, which has impacted the football scene into the dynamic sport it still is today. One example is this rule introduced in 1940:

Offenses have to advance the ball beyond the line of scrimmage within reasonable time.

What such rules did was to eliminate grind-it-out tactics, while also encouraging teams to embrace strategies with more passing. During this period, other major rules were also introduced, including the unlimited substitutions in 1949, and the expanded quarterback protections in 1974.

1978 saw one of the most significant rule changes came into effect. The rule: defenders could only hit receivers until the ball arrived, not after the catch. This rule revolutionized sport and is what paved the way for the passing game of sport today. As a consequence, the sport saw more precise and timed routes, resulting in higher scores and more aerial attacks. Some of these changes in the rules shifted the balance of power between offense and defense. The rules have resulted in higher-scoring games, coupled with permissive rules about receiver protection. As a product of this, predicting point totals became a popular aspect of betting strategies, which consequently lead to the rise of point spread bets and over/under wagering. Many betting sites in Texas, as listed by Sports Casting, as well as other states, are now focusing more on these betting types to accommodate the changing rules and the consequently changing betting strategies. This is why sites like Sports Casting is a great place for players to compare and contrast the various sports betting sites in Texas, if this is the state you are in, to find operators that offers various betting types to accommodate your betting strategies.

Presently more focus on player safety and offensive efficiency In the last few decades, there have been many rule adjustments, all focusing on protecting players and enhancing the offensive side of the game. One worth a mention is the rule change in 2009 which was called the 'Tom Brady Rule'. This rule banned hits to quarterbacks' knees, since Tom Brady suffered an injury. Along with other rules focusing on quarterback protection, means that the quarterback position has become safer, and the amount of passes in a match has increased a lot. This focus on player protection has continued into 2023, there more rules have been added with a focus on concussion prevention. These include a new fair catch rule, which has reduced the number of high-impact collisions on kickoffs.

Rule changes have also directly impacted scoring, which is evident in the regulations which curtail defensive actions, including excessive contact with receivers. Protections like this encourage more aggressive play-calling, which results in increasing scoring opportunities. As a result of these rules, the average NFL score per game has increased. Since the game has shifted towards protecting quarterbacks and speeding up the play, some betting strategies have also evolved. This has resulted in some bettors considering the likelihood of scoring surges in the final minutes of the half.

Other impacts on betting strategies

Since all these mentioned rule changes are impacting how the game is played, it is also per extension impacting how the game is analyzed for betting purposes. High-scoring games have become more common with the rules that favor offenses, which has resulted in bettors favoring overs in over/under totals. There is also a tendency for point spreads to widen as offenses become more prolific, which is impacting analysis of the games.

Betting on game props has been influenced by the introduction of the fair catch rule on kickoffs, as it has altered the teams' strategies and consequently reduced the impact of return specialists. Additionally, odds during high-stakes games have been impacted by the rule change such as the 'third quarterback rule', where each team is provided with added roster flexibility. As teams can carry an additional quarterback, the team is less vulnerable in the case of injuries, adding more stability to rosters.

Concluding remarks

Looking at this history of rule changes in football reflects how the game has evolved from a brutal and rudimentary competition to a fast-paced strategic game. Both gameplay and scoring has been influenced by these changes, but it has also affected betting strategies, since bettors have had to adapt to the changing nature of the game.