Pro Football History.com Blog
February 11th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
Well, the Three-Peat wasn’t meant to be. From the beginning of the game, until the end, the Philadelphia Eagles dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday, one of the most impressive displays in recent Super Bowl memory. The Eagles victory was only the third victory in the last twenty years by more than 16 points.
There are many different ways to explain the dominance the Eagles displayed, but the final score was closer than the game ever was. Two Chiefs touchdowns in the last three minutes of the game, when they were already down 40-6, hardly caused a stir on the Eagles sideline. Backups finished the game while the starters soaked in the moment.
So what led to the domination for the Eagles?
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Time of Possession
All game long, the Eagles dominated the time of possession. Controlling the clock on offense was a key to success all season long. They won the time of possession battle in twelve of the seventeen games this season, and the Super Bowl was no different. The Eagles held the ball for 36:58 during the game, but not through their normal means. They only average 3.0 yards per rushing attempt, well below their season average. But the time spent on offense gave their time plenty of time to rest and recharge, which led to another area of domination.
Zero Blitzes, Six Sacks
One of the most absurd stats of the game was that the Eagles called their first blitz on the very final drive of the game. All game long, the Eagles defensive line was able to harass Patrick Mahomes to the tune of six sacks. Not only was this the most Mahomes has been sacked all season, it was the most he has been sacked in a single game in his career. He could never get comfortable in the pocket, and it led to errant passes even when he had time.
Pressure Leads To Turnovers
When Mahomes was worried about the pass rush, he was not able to dissect the secondary with his usual precision. Rather, the secondary picked him off twice, including the first ever pick-six for Mahomes in the playoffs. On top of interceptions, they also forced one strip-sack on a brutal third quarter hit where multiple defenders got their shot at Mahomes. Overall, this was only the second time this season that the Chiefs had three turnovers.
Eliminating Chiefs Playmakers
All game long, the Eagles eliminated Chiefs playmakers. The Chiefs were forced to be one-dimensional all game long, and it showed up in the box score. Running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for more than 1,000 yards during the regular season, but could only muster 16 against the Eagles on six rushes. Travis Kelce was held to zero catches in the first half - the first time that’s happened in his playoff career - and only four catches total. While two late scores gave the receivers a stat boost, it was far too little, far too late.
What’s next for the Eagles?
The Eagles success has attracted teams to Nick Sirianni's coaching staff, and this year was no different. It looks like offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be hired by the New Orleans Saints as their new head coach, giving the Eagles their fourth offensive coordinator in the last four years. But Siriani isn’t going anywhere, and the Eagles look set up to compete for a while longer.
February 9th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
Super Bowl LIX kicks off today at 6:30p.m. ET, and should be an incredibly exciting game to finish the 2024 NFL season. On one side of history, we have the Kansas City Chiefs seeking the first team to ever win three consecutive Super Bowls. On the other, we have the Philadelphia Eagles, looking for their second-ever Super Bowl victory.
These teams have shared history between them - they faced off in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Super Bowl LVII was a thrilling game down to the final seconds as the Chiefs won 38-35 on a Harrison Butker field goal with eight seconds remaining on the clock. Not only that, but current Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is also the winningest coach in Eagles history (130-93-1), and one of the best players in Eagles history (Jason Kelce) is the brother of one of the greatest players in Chiefs history (Travis Kelce).
While there is a lot of history between them, the game won’t be settled based on the past matchups. So who has the edge in Super Bowl LIX? What matchups will lead to a victory?
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Steve Spagnuola versus Saquon Barkley
Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley has put together one of the best seasons for a running back in NFL history: 2,005 yards rushing, with another 278 yards through the air, and 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing, 2 receiving). He’s the engine that makes the Eagles offense hum to the tune of the 7th ranked offense in the league. Only one other team put up as many rushing yards as the Eagles, taking substantial pressure off quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts is capable as a quarterback, but the Eagles rarely needed him to shine - no team threw fewer passes than the Eagles all season long.
Stopping the run is a tall order, but Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is up to the task. No coordinator has more Super Bowl victories (4) than Spagnuolo, and his defense was integral in one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets ever when the New York Giants ended the New England Patriots quest for a perfect season by holding the high-scoring offense to only 14 points.
The Chiefs defense was 8th overall in the league at stopping the run, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones and the defensive line will have to be at the top of their game to set the tone against the Eagles offensive line. Whoever wins here will set the tone for the game, leading us into our second key matchup.
Eagles Secondary versus Patrick Mahomes
While the Eagles offense runs through Barkley, the Chiefs offense runs through Mahomes. No one has had a more decorated start to their career than Mahomes, and the Chiefs certainly feel like they can never be counted out of the game with him under center. While the Chiefs had their best record of his career (15-2), it was certainly a down year for Mahomes. 2024 was the first year since he was named the starter that he was not named to the Pro Bowl, he tied a career-low for touchdown passes, and had his fewest passing yards in his career.
However, the Chiefs were never out of it. He led the league with seven game-winning drives in 2024, so as long as the ball is in his hands, the Chiefs are in the game. It will be up to the secondary - Quinyon Mitchell, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay, Jr., and Reed Blankenship - to slow down Mahomes. The defense has been great at limiting points and yards (ranked second and first in the league), but have also come away with 26 turnovers. Stealing possessions against the Chiefs to hand Barkley a short field to work with will be the recipe for victory for the Eagles.
Super Bowl Prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 24
I expect the Eagles to set the tone early behind Barkley to limit the number of possessions in this game. The fewer chances the Chiefs have, the better for the Eagles. The game will always feel nail-bitingly close despite the multi-score lead the Eagles will carry through much of the game, and ultimately the Chiefs comeback will fall short.
February 6th, 2025
You might wonder if first-time NFL head coaches are truly capable of transforming struggling franchises. The data suggests a compelling narrative of potential and strategic innovation, where new leadership can quickly reshape team dynamics. With average win improvements and fresh tactical approaches, these coaches challenge traditional expectations about organizational change. What drives their surprising success, and how do they manage to outperform seasoned veterans in such a competitive landscape? The answers might reshape your understanding of leadership in professional football.
Key Takeaways
- Rookie NFL head coaches improve team win totals by an average of 2.0, with 26 out of 40 coaches leading teams to better records.
- First-time coaches exhibit a 41.7% playoff likelihood and a .447 winning percentage, demonstrating significant potential for immediate team transformation.
- According to The 33rd Team, 68% of recent head coach hires were first-time NFL head coaches, signaling a league-wide trend valuing fresh perspectives and adaptability.
- Teams scoring under 18 PPG often experience dramatic improvements, with new coaches potentially generating up to 5.3 additional wins.
- Successful coaching trajectories show significant performance growth, with win rates increasing from 31.39% to 50.86% over three consecutive seasons.
First-Year Performance Metrics
The challenge of first-year NFL head coaches reveals a nuanced landscape of performance and potential.
When you look at the data, rookie coaches typically improve their team's win total by an average of 2.0 wins, with 26 out of 40 coaches leading teams to better records.
Your chances of success are even higher if your team previously scored less than 18 points per game, where improvements average 5.3 wins.
Notably, first-year head coaches are 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs compared to experienced coaches with new teams.
The point differential also plays an essential role, with teams outscored by 7.5 PPG showing remarkable resilience, consistently improving in their inaugural season under new leadership.
Defensive strategy can significantly influence a rookie head coach's first-year performance and team turnaround.
Historical Coaching Trends
Throughout NFL history, coaching trends have revealed fascinating patterns of success, longevity, and organizational decision-making. Veterans who struggle, winning three or fewer games, face a 75% likelihood of termination, while first-year coaches receive more organizational patience.
You'll notice that continuous improvement defines successful coaching trajectories, with win rates progressively increasing from 31.39% to 50.86% over three seasons.
The landscape increasingly favors younger, innovative coaches, with the average hire being 46.5 years old and bringing 19.5 years of diverse organizational experience.
Remarkably, 68% of recent head coach hires were first-time NFL head coaches, signaling a shift towards fresh perspectives and dynamic leadership strategies. This trend suggests organizations value potential and adaptability over traditional coaching pedigrees.
Scoring and Statistical Improvements
Examining first-time NFL head coaches reveals compelling scoring dynamics that reshape team performance. Indeed, detailed NFL game prop analysis often underscores how these new coaches drive significant offensive transformations, with Sean McVay’s Rams setting a benchmark by improving 15.9 points per game in 2017. Teams scoring under 18 PPG previously have seen dramatic turnarounds, averaging 5.3 additional wins under fresh leadership.
The statistical landscape shows more than just offensive shifts. Defensive improvements—like Ben McAdoo’s Giants reducing points allowed by 9.8 PPG in 2016—demonstrate the extensive impact new coaches can have. By focusing on key metrics like point margin, scoring, and turnover rates, first-time head coaches can rapidly elevate their team’s competitive profile and set the stage for sustained success.
Betting and Game Strategies
Five essential betting dynamics emerge when analyzing first-time NFL head coaches’ strategic landscape. You’ll want to recognize that rookie HCs have a challenging 41.7% playoff likelihood, with a .447 overall winning percentage. When betting at your favorite online sportsbook, focus on their early-season unpredictability, where opponents might struggle to prepare against unfamiliar strategies.
Your best approach involves careful contextual analysis. Look beyond raw statistics, studying individual matchups, coaching styles, and game-planning nuances. West coast teams traveling east present unique opportunities, but you’ll need to dig deeper than surface-level trends. Remember that while rookie HCs often improve point differentials and win totals, they’re statistically more likely to lose than win.
Your betting success hinges on understanding these complex dynamics and avoiding knee-jerk reactions to isolated data points.
Long-Term Coaching Sustainability
While the NFL's coaching landscape has become increasingly volatile, long-term sustainability remains a critical factor in team success.
You'll notice that teams like the Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs demonstrate how consistent leadership can drive organizational stability. The data shows that frequent coaching changes often fail to address systemic issues and can lead to organizational instability.
Your understanding of coaching tenure should recognize that teams with coaches who stay 10+ years typically have higher winning percentages. The constant player turnover due to free agency makes building a cohesive roster challenging, but maintaining coaching continuity can provide the strategic consistency needed to overcome these obstacles.
Your team's success might hinge on resisting the temptation of quick, reactive coaching changes.
The Power of Analytics in Football
You've witnessed the transformative power of fresh NFL coaching talent - like a spark igniting a dormant engine. First-time coaches aren't just replacements; they're strategic revolutionaries who can turn struggling teams into competitive powerhouses. With data-driven approaches and innovative game plans, these coaches aren't just changing scores - they're rewriting franchise narratives and proving that new leadership can breathe life into any organization.
February 5th, 2025
American football is the ultimate team game where dozens of players contribute to each win. That doesn’t diminish the value of individual greatness, which is why the best professional league in the world hands out the MVP award to the most outstanding player. Every year, there is a discussion about the most deserving candidates and this season is no exception – while there is a clear group of frontrunners to win 2025 NFL MVP, the decision is anything but easy and predicting the winner is still a bit tricky.
Let’s take a closer look at the four players that are still considered to have a realistic chance to win the award.
1. Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)
Allen is widely expected to pick up his first MVP award after a truly dominant season for the resurgent Bills team. With an impressive 13-4 record in the regular season, Allen helmed one of the most fearsome offenses in the league and contributed both in the passing and the running game. His statistics are very solid but not incredible, as Allen had 26 touchdown passes versus just 6 interceptions, and gained a total of 3549 passing yards with a passer rating of 101.4. He added another 500 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, proving his value as a dual threat, leader on the field, and the main decision maker in Buffalo’s offensive unit. MVP voters like to reward winning quarterbacks and there seems to be a consensus that Allen did just enough this year to deserve the highest accolade.
2. Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
Another dual threat quarterback is seen as the biggest rival to Allen, and with good reason too. Two-time MVP winner Lamar Jackson had a very fine season for a Baltimore team that is built around his uncompromising play. He piloted the Ravens through a season that started poorly and quickly righted the ship to sail to another first-place finish in AFC North. The statistical case for Jackson is quite strong, as he threw for 4,172 yards and had a passer rating of 119.6, while also rushing for more than 900 yards. His 41 passing touchdowns were second in the NFL this season, and he also scored 4 rushing touchdowns. Jackson was very responsible with the ball and allowed only 4 interceptions in 17 games, although he was sacked 23 times. In the eyes of some MVP voters, this kind of production is impossible to ignore when deciding about the 2025 winner.
3. Saquon Barkley (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
Long-time NFL fans are aware that no running back has won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson famously did it in 2012, but this year there is a completely legitimate candidate to reverse this trend. Saquon Barkley joined the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason and wasted no time rewriting the history books. He became just the ninth player ever to rush for at least 2000 yards in a season, and he did it in 16 games. Barkley had the best rushing average of his career with 5.8 yards and scored 13 rushing touchdowns, with just 6 fumbles. He also demonstrated some versatility with 278 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, although this is a decrease compared to his previous seasons with the New York Giants. His season was definitely one for the ages, but it’s not clear if that will suffice to crown him as the Most Valuable Player.
4. Joe Burrow (QB, Cincinnati Bengals)
While Burrow had a very successful season by all parameters, his MVP chances seem to be slipping according to most sportsbooks like WoomBet that offer NFL MVP betting. Despite leading the league in total passing yards with 4,918 and passing touchdowns with 43 with a decent passer rating of 108.5 and only 9 interceptions, Burrow finds himself as an underdog in the race largely due to poor team results. The Bengals finished the season with a disappointing 9-8 record, good only for 3rd place in their division and not good enough for a wildcard slot in the playoffs. It’s rare for a player from a middling team to claim the MVP award, so despite his statistical dominance this season Burrow might have to wait for another opportunity to add the centerpiece to his growing trophy case.
February 5th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
After last season’s head coaching searches, we published our initial ranking of how we felt each team did during the latest round of hiring. With their first season under the belt, it’s time to revisit how each coach did in their first season with their new franchise.
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New Ranking (Last Years Ranking):
- Dan Quinn (4th)
- Jim Harbaugh (1st)
- Mike Macdonald (5th)
- Raheem Morris (8th)
- Dave Canales (6th)
- Brian Callahan (2nd)
- T - Antonio Pierce / Jerod Mayo (3rd and 7th)
#1 Dan Quinn:
I think it’s fair to say that no team is happier with their new head coach than the Washington Commanders are with their new head coach Dan Quinn. We ranked Quinn fourth entering the season, but his inaugural season in Washington was a major success. The team’s twelve wins was the most since their 1991 Super Bowl season, and the eight win improvement over 2023 was the most of any other new coach.
The team is well positioned for the future as well. The defense made significant strides after being ranked 32nd in both yards and points allowed, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was sensational and the front-runner for the offensive rookie of the year award. The last time the team had a Top-5 offense, they were led by another rookie quarterback sensation (RGIII). Hopefully Daniels can remain healthy as he looks to build on his rookie year.
#2 Jim Harbaugh:
Before the season, we ranked Harbaugh as the best coaching hire of the offseason, and he lived up to expectations. Successful every stop on his coaching journey, we fully expected that to continue with the Chargers. Leading the team to an 11-win season, their most since 2018, and a wildcard appearance, the team wasn’t quite able to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs for the divisional title.
Before the season, we wrote that new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter had a major task on his plate - leading the defensive charge against the Chief - and he surpassed expectations. Holding the Chiefs to an average of 18 points in their two meetings, the Chargers posted the best scoring defense in the league. The stout defenses will need to continue, because the emergence of Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix gives two potentially high-powered offenses the Chargers will have to contend with each season.
#3 Mike Macdonald:
Macdonald showed a lot of promise for the Seahawks in his first season as a head coach, but he had some big shoes to fill after replacing Pete Carroll in the organization. While the offense stayed around the middle of the pack across the league, Macdonald was able to bring a new focus on the defense that saw it improve from 25th in points to 11th.
Before the season, we wrote about the importance of the offensive coordinator for a coach like Macdonald, and let’s just say his first pick did not pan out. After only a single season, the team fired Ryan Grubb. He was quickly replaced by Klint Kubiak, who was the Saints offensive coordinator last season. One positive for Kubiak compared to Grubb - at least he has been an NFL coordinator before. The downside? Those results aren’t what you would exactly want to stake your job on.
#4 Raheem Morris:
Possibly the biggest surprise on our list - Raheem Morris comes in at number four on the re-ranked list. After an initial three-season run as the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we did not expect very much from this hiring. While the results were only an 8-9 season, that was at least a mild improvement over 2023’s 7-10 season.
Most surprising to us was the offensive output from the Falcons. In the preseason article, we talked about how the new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson could be a great hire after spending years in Los Angeles with the Rams. This hiring could be the start of something good for the Falcons, who put up more yards per game than any other team with a new coach. While there was some offseason confusion about the quarterback position - first signing Kirk Cousins to a large multi-year contract, then trading up in the draft to nab Michael Penix Jr., - the team eventually turned to the rookie to close out the season. A full offseason of reps will help Penix realize his potential if the team moves beyond Cousins.
#5 Dave Canales:
Canales probably was hired into the worst situation of any coach on this list. The Panthers were the worst team in 2023 after drafting Bryce Young first overall, and despite the poor season, they had already traded away the first overall pick, so the team had to watch as the Bears drafted first overall. While Canales was hired as an offensive mind, it took a while for the team to hit their stride. Young was benched early in the season, but came back and showed quite a bit of promise by the end of the season.
In fact, the entire team showed serious growth as the season continued. After a 1-7 start to the season, the team finished on a 4-5 stretch. After their bye week, the offense showed a spark, improving from an average of 281 YPG, up to 323 YPG. Additionally, the team averaged eight more points a game after the bye week. If the performance after the bye week can continue into Canales second year as a head coach, they may be looking to compete for a division title in two years.
#6 Brian Callahan Possibly no coach disappointed more on this list than Callahan. Originally ranked second going into the season, we had expected great things from the new Titans coach. One of the first moves of the offseason was hiring his dad and longtime offensive line coach, Bill Callahan, as an assistant coach. Considered one of the greatest offensive line coaches in the game, the Titans were tied for the third-most sacks allowed all season with 52. Pressure like that gave second-year quarterback Will Levis no time to improve on his rookie year.
Callahan didn’t waste any time in the offseason to make the changes he felt were necessary. The Titans have already shaken up the coaching staff, firing special teams coordinator Colt Anderson and letting several other assistants’ contracts expire. They moved fast to bring in long-time special teams coordinator John Fassel, new defensive passing game coordinator Tony Oden, and promote Luke Stocker to tight ends coach. Teams aren’t typically patient, so Callahan will need to show major improvement in 2025 to retain his job beyond next season.
T - #7 Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo
Coming in at the bottom of the list is Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo, tied for last place since the team felt one season was enough. Both the Raiders and the Patriots moved on and cut their losses quickly. In fact, in the case of Pierce, it happened midseason - he won more games with them last season as an interim head coach than this year as their full time head coach. We felt last year the Pierce hiring was strong, he had a lot of buy-in from the locker room and seemed to turn them around toward the end of the season as an interim. We missed the mark on that prediction.
However, with Mayo we did feel that it was a lackluster hiring, rating him seventh overall on the list. After replacing Bill Belichick, there were big shoes to fill. Unfortunately, Mayo was not the right person for the job as the team seemed to regress across the board. It was an opportunity to move beyond the aura of Belichick, but owner Robert Kraft decided that one season was enough.