Pro Football History.com Blog

March 18th, 2024

By signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract on Monday, the Atlanta Falcons added a proven starting quarterback to their offensive arsenal. Mike McCartney, Cousins' agent, took to social media on Monday to announce the signing. According to ESPN, the agreement is reportedly for $180 million, including a guaranteed sum of $100 million.

For a long time, the Falcons have stocked up on offensive talent, including three first-round draft picks—Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson, and tight end Kyle Pitts. However, since Matt Ryan departed after the 2021 season, they have failed to locate a suitable successor.

Although Cousins is among the top quarterbacks in the NFL, he is 35 years old and had a season-ending tear in his Achilles midway through last season. While Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke had a rough go of it for the Falcons, Kirk Cousins had the third-best passer rating in the league in the eight games the Vikings played before his injury. The quarterback room for the Atlanta Falcons was deemed "deficient" by owner Arthur Blank last season, a sentiment shared by few fans.

Cousins, the prototypical late bloomer, has had some of his best games since the Vikings brought in coach Kevin O'Connell in 2022.

Even though the Vikings wanted to keep Cousins around for a long time, they had to be realistic about how much they could promise due to their salary cap and their rivals in the NFC North, who have been making strides recently and looking good.

Cousins expressed his desire to end his career in Minnesota, but he also needed more than just a one-year contract to feel appreciated.

From being overlooked as a college recruit to being selected in the fourth round and now having for almost 40,000 yards for his career, Cousins has been the epitome of an overachiever on the field. Under McCartney's tutelage, he has also become an expert in the game's business aspects.

Atlanta Falcons at the Bookmakers

The outcome of the Cousins’ signing is that the Falcons' chances of winning the Super Bowl have been reduced from +5000 to +3000. On the other hand, the Vikings are now +7500 from +4000 in the championship odds. Not to forget, the SB odds on the Falcons do not include the use of promotional codes at ESPN Bet. So, technically, there’s room for even greater prices when approached wisely.

Cousins was clearly the most prominent individual on the list. He was a strong contender for the NFL MVP title last season until he sustained a career-ending injury.

Building His Postseason Legacy in Atlanta

Of course, the most frequently asked question now is how Cousins can assist the Falcons in their playoff aspirations.

Adding Cousins to the Falcons' offense—which finished the season ranked 27th in quarterback rating and 22nd in passing yards—should greatly improve their chances of breaking a six-year postseason drought. Cousins can help the Falcons' offense make the most of its three first-round choices in a row: Pitts, receiver Drake London, and running back Bijan Robinson.

With a wager of at least $100 million, the Atlanta Falcons are certainly making a huge gamble on him as the quarterback who can guide this troubled team to its first Super Bowl victory.

Theoretically, Cousins should feel at home in the Falcons' offense under Kevin O'Connell, who coached the Vikings in 2020–21. Zac Robinson, who just joined the Falcons as offensive coordinator, was an assistant with the Rams from 2019–23 when the two of them overlapped. Many have noted that there is already a family presence in the region since Julie, Cousins' wife, is from the Atlanta suburbs, and her parents still reside there.

Although there is a danger in investing much in a 35-year-old who has just had a serious injury, his Achilles tendon surgery seems to have gone well. This past week, he shared a video of himself doing an indoor exercise, and back in January, he described his rehabilitation as "a positive experience," expressing hope that he would be fully ready for the next season.

In his postseason career, Cousins has a paltry 1-3 record. He guided the Vikings to a 13-4 record in 2022, but they were upset by the Giants in their playoff-opening. Regardless of the Falcons' postseason record, Cousins can at least restore their chances of becoming playoff contenders.

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March 14th, 2024

As the NFL draft approaches, the Chicago Bears find themselves in a unique position with the first overall pick. The team could use this valuable selection in a few different ways. One possibility is trading the pick to another team in exchange for multiple picks or players. Another option is using the pick to draft standout quarterback Caleb Williams.

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With all that said, Let's take a closer look at these two potential paths for the Bears.

Trading the Pick

One option the Chicago Bears have with the first overall pick in the NFL draft is to trade it to another team. This could be a strategic move if the Bears feel they have other areas of need that could be addressed by acquiring multiple picks or players in exchange for the top selection. For example, by trading the pick, the Bears could add depth to their roster and address multiple positions of need in one fell swoop.

Several teams are likely to be interested in trading for the first overall pick, as it is a valuable asset in the draft. Teams looking to secure a top quarterback prospect or a game-changing player at another position may be willing to offer a significant package in exchange for the pick. The Bears could leverage this interest to their advantage and make a deal that sets them up for success in the future.

Drafting Caleb Williams

On the other hand, the Chicago Bears could choose to use the first overall pick to draft standout USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Williams is widely regarded as one of the top prospects in the draft and has the potential to be a franchise-changing player for the Bears. By selecting Williams with the first pick, the Bears would secure a talented young quarterback to lead their team for years.

Williams has all the tools to succeed at the NFL level, with a strong arm, impressive accuracy, and excellent decision-making skills. He has shown the ability to make plays with his arm and legs, making him a dual-threat quarterback that could give the Bears' offense a dynamic new dimension. By drafting Williams, the Bears would be investing in the future of their franchise and setting themselves up for success for years to come.

The Justin Fields Dilemma

The Chicago Bears passed up C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young last year because they had Justin Fields, the 11th pick overall in the 2021 draft, in their ranks. Fields has gone 10-28 in his three seasons at the Bears; however, he finished strong at the end of their last campaign, leading the Bears to a 4-3 record over their final seven games of the season. However, Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, seems to have all the tools that Fields, unfortunately, lacks in the pro game and is being touted by many as the man to lead the Bears franchise forward to better days.

So, if the Bears choose to make Williams their number-one pick, what does this mean for Fields? The quarterback will likely be put on the off-season trading block and shown off to some quarterback-hungry NFL teams. It was initially thought that Fields could be off to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Nevertheless, reports suggest the franchise has different ideas for its quarterback position.

The Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, and New England Patriots are the other teams expected to target quarterback help this offseason. Fields could provide the perfect opportunity for them to capitalize should the Bears pick Williams, which is looking ever more likely as the draft approaches.

Final Thoughts: Analyzing the Chicago Bears' Strategies for the #1 Pick

Ultimately, the Chicago Bears' decision regarding the first overall pick in the NFL draft will be crucial. Whether they choose to trade the pick for additional assets or use it to draft Caleb Williams, the Bears will be shaping the future of their franchise with this selection. Both options have risks and rewards, and it will be interesting to see which path the Bears ultimately choose.

As the NFL draft approaches, all eyes will be on the Chicago Bears and their decision regarding the first overall pick. Will they trade the pick for additional assets, or will they use it to draft Caleb Williams and secure their future quarterback? Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain—the Bears have a big decision to make, and the future of their franchise hangs in the balance.

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By Stephen Juza

March 12th, 2024

As the league opens the new season with free agency this week, all eyes turn toward the 2024 season. Key players are already on the move in free agency as teams aim to address gaps in their rosters before the upcoming draft next month. As coaches around the league start to strategize for the 2024 season, we look today at the most likely candidates for the Coach of the Year award.

Each new signing or departure has the potential to impact the online betting odds for each coach vying for the award. While losing Kirk Cousins in free agency may hurt the Vikings next year, if they can replace him and show improvement next year, Kevin O'Connell will be in advantageous position to win the award. However, if they falter from last year’s 7-10 record, O’Connell may be looking for work next offseason.

When considering the Coach of the Year, it is rarely given to the best coach in the game. For example, Andy Reid, one of the greatest coaches of the last 30 years, has only won the award once in his career.

While new coaches make up about 20-25% of the league each season, they have won four of the last ten COTY awards. Voters love to focus on a ‘narrative’, and a new coach coming in to lead a team to the playoffs is always a compelling story.

Even if it is not a new coach, coaches need to have a major improvement from the prior season. Since 2014, in the year preceding the COTY win, the teams averaged a 7-9 record - right on the cusp of the playoffs but needing just a little more push. The following year, to secure the award, the average COTY winner led his team to five more wins from the prior season, with the largest turnaround at nine wins for Ron Rivera’s COTY win in 2015 when he led the Panthers to a Super Bowl berth.

So, who are the three coaches to look out for next year?

#1 - Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh will make a lot of noise next season. Returning to the NFL after winning the NCAA championship at his alma mater, Michigan, Harbaugh took one of the prime positions in the league. While the Chargers have some key positions filled with potential stars, his coaching will help them with the push needed to improve on last year’s 5-12 finish. It is not rare that one team will go worst-to-first in their division, and with a little luck, the Chargers can achieve that this year.

With a new coach coming in, if he manages to topple the Kansas City Chiefs’ reign in the AFC West, expect Harbaugh to win his first coach of the year award.

#2 - Sean Payton, Denver Broncos

Staying within the AFC West, another strong candidate for the Coach of the Year award is Sean Payton. After returning to coaching after a brief retirement, the Broncos had extremely high expectations with Payton last year. They all fell flat. An 8-9 finish, with a quarterback debacle that led to Russell Wilson’s release last week was not what the team had in mind when they hired the former Super Bowl winner. Poor results in 2023 only lead to increased pressure in 2024, and the job is not any easier this season.

Entering free agency, the team’s top priority is to replace Wilson, and Payton has had major success at working with quarterbacks throughout his tenure in the league. Spinning yarn into gold this season and replacing the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West will put Payton’s name on his second COTY award.

#3 - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

The last coach to keep an eye on in 2024 is Shane Steichen. The Colts were able to surprise people last year with a strong 9-8 finish to the season, good for a second-place finish behind 10-7 Houston. However, the season encountered early struggles when rookie starting quarterback Anthony Richardson went down with a season ending injury in the fifth game of the season. While his rookie season was brief, they were signs of the explosive potential he possesses - Richardson ranked first in the league in explosive plays before he went down injured.

While backup quarterback Garner Minshew II left the team in free agency, Richardson’s injury rehab is progressing as expected and began throwing the ball last month. With a healthy Richardson, and enough improvement from the rest of the team to take the division title, Steichen could win his first COTY award of his career next February.

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By Stephen Juza

March 8th, 2024

As teams around the league finalize their coaching staffs, our latest blog post looks at the eight new head coaching hires for the 2024 season. With a mixture of new head coaches and experienced head coaches, some offensive minds, and some defensive minds, we take a quick look at how we think the coach will do in the coming years. We look not just at their prior book of work, but also their ability to hire critical roles for their coaching staff.

With such a critical hire, it can make-or-break a team’s success for years to come, and Super Bowl betting odds constantly adjust to reflect how people feel the team will fare in the upcoming season. The right coach can transform a team from forgotten to Super Bowl contender in a single offseason. So, who is positioning their new team the best?

#1 Jim Harbaugh: Prior Head Coaching Record: 44-19-1 (5-3 in the Playoffs)

Arguably the crown jewel of the 2024 coaching carousel was Jim Harbaugh. Fresh off a college National Championship at his alma mater (Michigan), he decided now is the right time to jump back into the NFL. After taking several interviews over the last few years, 2024 Harbaugh will return to the NFL sideline, bringing his strong track-record of success as a coach and a quarterback-mentor. He brings a successful pedigree (winner of 2011’s Coach of the Year) and reconnects with his long-time offensive coordinator Greg Roman to help bring the Los Angeles Chargers to the top of the AFC West.

One major roadblock to the Chargers’ hopes of winning the division is the current defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs. Tasked with the tall order of slowing down the high-powered Chiefs offense, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, is new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who hasn’t been a defensive coordinator at the NFL level before. While he led the defense to slow down Heisman runner-up Michael Penix, Jr., Mahomes will represent a significantly more difficult challenge.

#2 Brian Callahan: Zac Taylor Coaching Tree (Five Seasons)

Former Bengals offensive coordinator is next on our list after he joined the Tennessee Titans this offseason. Callahan is the first coach from the Zac Taylor coaching tree to be hired as a head coach, and all eyes in Nashville will be on Callahan to bring an offensive coaching pedigree that will hopefully help mold their quarterback of the future, Will Levis.

Levis sees similarities between himself and Callahan’s last quarterback, Joe Burrow. However, Callahan has experience around many great quarterbacks, and the Titans should be excited about what that experience can yield for their offense. One of the critical coaching hires he made for his inaugural coaching staff was getting his father, Bill Callahan, as the team’s offensive line coach. Bill has long been considered one of the greatest OL coaches in the league, and having his talents to help take pressure off the young quarterback will be key moving forward.

If Brian is successful in Tennessee, the AFC South may become the most exciting and competitive division in the NFL for the foreseeable future.

#3 Antonio Pierce: Interim record: 5-4

Coming in third of our ranking is former interim head coach Antonio Pierce, promoted to the top job after a successful audition for the top job in 2023. After stepping in for the disastrous Josh McDaniels-tenure, the Las Vegas Raiders were able to salvage the 2023 season with an 8-9 record and a second-place finish in the AFC West.

Pierce was a big hit with the players on the Raiders, with several like Davante Adams publicly advocating for the job to be Pierce’s. Pierce comes in with a lot more playing background than he does coaching background. Pierce played nine seasons in the NFL and only has two years of NFL coaching experience. However, experienced NFL players have recently made the jump to NFL head coaches rather quickly, with great success. Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans are two examples of those who were hired as head coaches after a few seasons as assistant coaches.

While Pierce may be a great coach, he and the Raiders will struggle in a division with the Chiefs (and now potentially the Chargers).

#4 Dan Quinn: Prior Head Coaching Record: 43-42 (3-2 in the Playoffs)

Taking the fourth spot in our ranking is the new Washington Commanders’ head coach, and former Falcons head coach, Dan Quinn. Quinn led the Falcons between 2015 and 2020, before he was let go in the middle of the season. While his Falcons experienced some successful years, two playoff berths in his first three seasons and a Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, it was a slow downward slide for the Falcons from his peak. After going 11-5 in his second season, each year was slightly worse than the prior, until the team opened up 2020 with an 0-5 record -- and Quinn’s firing.

However, since his Falcons days, he has been the defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. After three consecutive 12-5 records, Quinn is ready for his second shot at the top job. Quinn represents a “Mike” - type rebound head coach: Winning record in their first stint, with an assistant role between head coaching gigs. These coaches frequently regress in their second head coaching role, and in a tough NFC East, expect the same to happen with Quinn.

#5 Mike Macdonald: John Harbaugh Coaching Tree (Nine Seasons)

Fifth on our list is former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, taking over the top job for the Seattle Seahawks. After spending the first nine seasons of his coaching career under John Harbaugh, Macdonald had several opportunities for head coaching positions this offseason. Defensive coaches have generally had success as head coaches coming from the Harbaugh coaching tree, so that bodes well for Macdonald.

Coming from a defensive background though, his initial offensive coordinator is an important hire. His pick, former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, has no NFL experience and only two seasons at a Power-5 conference. However, during his two seasons at Washington, he coached Heisman runner-up quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. en route to a national championship berth.

A skilled offensive coordinator to help set the offensive strategy has been the undoing of several coaches from the Harbaugh Tree, such as Rex Ryan and Chuck Pagano. The Seahawks’ Macdonald can be the coach to break through.

#6 Dave Canales: Pete Carroll Coaching Tree (Thirteen Seasons)

From the coach replacing Pete Carroll, to the fourth coach from Pete Carroll’s coaching tree to become a head coach, our sixth entry in our list is new Carolina Panthers coach Dave Canales. After following Carroll to the NFL in 2010, Canales spent the next thirteen years of his career working in various roles for the Seahawks before finally getting his shot as an offensive coordinator last year for the Buccaneers.

Coaching changes can be crucial for young quarterbacks, and Canales’ top goal for his first season will be to help Bryce Young take a similar leap to Trevor Lawrence in his second season. The Panthers are on a streak of six consecutive sub-.500 seasons, and last year posted the lowest average offensive yards per game in the league. Canales offensive experience could be crucial for the team to turn it around.

#7 Jerod Mayo: Bill Belichick Coaching Tree (Five years as a coach)

Seventh on our list is the new New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo. No one likes being ‘the guy’ who follows a great, and Mayo is in a tough spot. Anyone following the greatest coach ever would have difficulty bringing the changes necessary. The Patriots are just a few years removed from the greatest sports dynasty ever, but the years since their last Super Bowl victory have been tough for the fan base’s high expectations. While Mayo has been considered a future head coach for a few years, I’m not envious of the task ahead of him. Belichick is the only coach he ever played for, or coached for, in the NFL.

While Mayo knows defense and comes from one of the greatest defensive masterminds to coach in the NFL, this is a great opportunity to shake up the Patriots organization. Draft rumors have the Patriots looking at a quarterback in the first round, and should they move on from Mac Jones, they have a great new offensive coordinator in place. Alex Van Pelt, who spent last season with the Browns, has a great history of working with quarterbacks of a wide range of abilities. If they take a quarterback in the first round, it will be a great way to help the Patriots move beyond the Belichick era.

#8 Raheem Morris: Head Coaching Record: 21-38 (0-0 in the Playoffs)

Coming in last in our 2024 ranking is new Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris. After a poor first attempt as a head coach for the Buccaneers, Morris spent the next decade working his way back up the coaching ranks from a position coach to coordinator. And while he was moderately successful during his short tenure as an interim head coach for the Falcons in 2020, it’s not hard to improve on the 0-5 start to the season that led to Quinn’s firing.

After spending his last several years as the defensive coordinator for the Rams, he was hired by the Falcons after shifting focus away from hiring Belichick. During his time in LA, the team won one Super Bowl (2021), his second of his assistant coaching career. Among the other coaches coming from LA is new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, a potentially great hire who will bring the offensive mind and scheme that Morris can hope to win with.

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By Stephen Juza

February 16th, 2024

With the Super Bowl now in the books, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has led his team to their third Super Bowl victory of the last five years. Reid’s third championship puts him in rare company within NFL history. Since the inception of the Super Bowl era, only Bill Belichick and Chuck Noll have won more Super Bowls than Reid. While success is not guaranteed in the NFL, the Chiefs are as well positioned as any prior dynasty to continue their run.

While the NFL season is over, fans may be looking for offseason entertainment. Many may turn to playing poker online with states relaxing gambling laws, some may tune in to watch the newly merged spring football league, or begin following the constant stream of NFL draft news on what their team can do to improve in 2024.

2023 Season

In a challenging season that witnessed the first road divisional loss of the Patrick Mahomes/Reid era, the Chiefs managed to pull it all together in time for the playoffs. Throughout the playoff run, the Chiefs faced a more challenging road than the past - having to win the conference on the road. Despite the road challenge in Buffalo, the Chiefs were able to prevail over the Buffalo Bills yet again.

The uphill battle continued through the Super Bowl. During the game, the team quickly found itself in a deficit against the San Francisco 49ers, trailing 10-0 in the first half. However, with second half adjustments, the Chiefs came out strong in the third quarter, taking their first lead toward the end of the third quarter on a touchdown reception by Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Mecole Hardman’s game-winning touchdown reception in overtime clinched Reid’s latest championship and elevated the Chiefs to one of the greatest sport dynasties of all time. While he is getting up there in age (he will be sixty-six next month), he is at the pinnacle of his coaching game.

With Mahomes at quarterback, the most critical position is filled for as long as Reid wants to coach. However, questions will soon arise regarding other positions on the team.

Chiefs Offense

While Mahomes will provide stability, his security blanket since he came into the league has been tight end Travis Kelce. Despite his remarkable durability throughout his career, never missing more than two games in a season since becoming a starter, this season might signal the beginning of a downward trend. He will turn thirty-five next season. He posted his fewest receiving yards since 2015 and his fewest touchdowns since 2019. However, he is still the clutch, go-to person for the Chiefs when they need a pivotal reception.

With all the mishaps with the Chiefs wide receiver core this season, Kelce was a key person for the team. If the Chiefs cannot upgrade their receiving weapons this offseason, they may not be able to withstand another year of decline for Kelce.

While the Chiefs won two Super Bowls after trading away the best wide receiver in the league (Tyreek Hill), the struggles may be too much for Mahomes to overcome next year unless they get more receiving threats.

Chiefs Defense

General manager Brett Veach will have a tough decision to make this offseason: re-sign either defensive tackle Chris Jones or cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to a big free agent contract.

Chris Jones has been as crucial to the defense over the years as Mahomes has been to the offense. Jones is coming off his fourth consecutive All-Pro season and will be looking for a major raise. The average salary of the top defensive tackles is north of $22 million, and Jones has proven to be in that company.

Meanwhile, Sneed is finishing his rookie contract and has made crucial plays at pivotal moments along this playoff run, such as forcing a pivotal fumble at the one-yard line against the Ravens to prevent a touchdown. He was a crucial player for the fourth-ranked passing defense in the league.

Reid’s Legacy

Five years ago, it seemed as if Belichick was the coach most likely to break Don Shula's wins record. However, since then, Belichick posted his worst seasons ever in his career, leading to his firing by the Patriots this offseason. Meanwhile, Reid has averaged more than twelve wins a season since Mahomes has taken over at quarterback.

While it is still a longshot for Reid to break the record, he sits seventy away from Shula. At his Mahomes-rate, he would need six more seasons to break the record. Not many coaches continue into their seventies, putting the threshold possibly out of reach for Reid. However, if the Chiefs can maintain their franchise icons or replenish playmakers through the draft, Reid might find that he is enjoying too much success and fun in winning games to consider retirement.

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