Pro Football History.com Blog
By Stephen Juza
July 25th, 2023
As we continue our predictions for each of the divisions, our next stop is the AFC West. In what feels like the easiest division to predict its winner (spoiler, the Kansas City Chiefs), there are a lot of intriguing storylines for the remaining three teams that will impact the playoff race in January. Despite some big splashes across the division, expect the Chiefs to win their eighth consecutive division championship.
Kansas City Chiefs Fresh off their second Super Bowl victory during the Andy Reid era, the Chiefs are well positioned for their eighth consecutive division title, which will be the second longest streak in NFL history. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains the league's best quarterback and boasts some truly astonishing records against his division opponents. Since he has taken over the starting quarterback role, the Chiefs are 27-3 against AFC West opponents, and a perfect 15-0 on the road.
With the NFL Week 1 odds heavily favoring the Chiefs against the Lions, Chiefs’ fans are eagerly waiting for the season to start as they look to defend their Super Bowl title. Although they lost offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to the Commanders in the offseason, expect the offense to look similar. Matt Nagy was promoted into his second stint as the offensive coordinator this offseason, and while the coordinators may change, it remains Reid’s offense.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers finished second in the division last year and expect them to finish there again in 2023. This team has a lot of key cornerstones in place, but they have the unfortunate position of sharing a division with the Chiefs.
Quarterback Justin Herbert has looked good in his first three seasons in the league. While he is not on the same level as Mahomes or Josh Allen in Buffalo, he looks like he will be consistently toward the top of the QB rankings for the next decade. Running back Austin Ekeler is one of the most versatile running backs in the league, giving Herbert a lot of different options out of the backfield. On the defensive side of the ball, their pass rush featuring Khalli Mack and Joey Bosa will be able to get consistent pressure on opposing offenses.
While they did not likely improve to overtake the Chiefs, they should remain better than the other two teams in the division.
Denver Broncos
One of the biggest toss ups entering the 2023 season is the Denver Broncos. After finishing last place in the division, the last three seasons, there is a lot of optimism in Denver after the hiring of new head coach Sean Payton. Payton brings experience that will immediately improve the team over last year’s one-and-done head coach Nathaniel Hackett, although that is not difficult.
While quarterback Russell Wilson is on the downslide of his career, he should be better than his 2022 season. Last season, he had the fewest touchdown passes and second-most interceptions of his career. To help Wilson rebound, the Broncos prioritized the offensive line, bringing in free agents Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey to help cut down on the fifty-five sacks Wilson took last year (tied for most in the league)
So, while the team should be better, it is tough to find how they will be good enough to challenge for the division.
Las Vegas Raiders
Rounding out the division is the Las Vegas Raiders, led by head coach Josh McDaniels. While other teams in the division made moves to improve, I do not see improvement happening for the Raiders in 2023. Downgrading from a healthy Derek Carr to a questionable Jimmy Garoppolo has the potential to blow up in the Raiders’ face. Garoppolo has not played a full season since 2019 and had offseason foot surgery, but he should be ready for Week 1.
Their defense needed a lot of improvement after last season, and they prioritized that side of the ball during the draft. Six of their nine draft picks went to defensive players. They will need to do a better job of putting pressure on the quarterback in 2023, and rookie Tyree Wilson should help them in that role.
Look for the Raiders to bottom out in the division, which might lead to Josh McDaniels’ firing come January.
Read our other division predictions:
Sustained Success of the Bills: AFC East’s 2023 Frontrunner
NFC South Rankings: Analyzing the Division's Teams and Outlook
By Stephen Juza
July 12th, 2023
After a two decade run of Patriots domination, the Buffalo Bills have made a statement the last three years that the division now runs through the Bills. Expect that to continue through the upcoming season, where despite moves from the other three teams will still leave them looking up at the Bills in the standings.
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The Buffalo Bills Rise:
The Bills recent success started back in 2017 with the hiring of first-time head coach Sean McDermott, who after an inaugural 9-7 season broke the sixteen season long playoff drought for the team. The following draft, the team drafted Josh Allen seventh overall. Over the past five years together, the Bills have won the division three times, made the playoffs as a wildcard one other time, and won 10+ games each of the last four seasons, the first time the Bills have accomplished that since the 90s.
Allen has become a shining star for the team, consistently ranked in the top three of any QB ranking in the league. Between him, Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, those three quarterbacks will have many years of battling for AFC supremacy between them.
They may not have made any flashy moves in free agency, but they didn’t really need to. After winning the division three consecutive seasons, and bringing back their biggest contributors, they are still the team to beat in the division. Despite some headline-grabbing moves by others, it won’t be enough to unseat the Bills. Look for them to claim their fourth consecutive AFC East title, the first time since the 90s that a team other than the Patriots have accomplished the feat.
New York Jets Make a Splash:
Despite the team’s improvement in the win column the last two years, the New York Jets saw a major opportunity to jump into Super Bowl contention when they traded for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. Beyond the potential impact he will bring to the field this season, and maybe 2024, it also gives the Jets a chance to reset at quarterback. After Zach Wilson showed last year that he wasn’t starter material in his second season, it gives him a chance to sit on the bench and work on his game away from the pressure. It remains uncertain if he will ever regain a starting role in his career.
It’s not uncommon for a team to go worst-to-first in a division, and the Jets are a strong contender if the Bills falter during the season. Either way, look for the Jets to finish at least second in the division and end their longest playoff drought in franchise history.
Miami Dolphins Treading Water:
Coming off Mike McDaniel's inaugural season as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, along with their first playoff berth since 2016, the future felt bright for the Dolphins. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s advanced performance statistics place him among the top of the QBs in the league. Additionally, the Dolphins big acquisition this offseason, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, should be instrumental in slowing down the potent aerial offenses throughout the league.
However, despite Tua’s success when he’s been on the field, he’s missed about a quarter of the games the last two seasons with injuries. The Dolphins need him on the field all seventeen games this season to have a chance to improve on their 2022 season. Without that, look for them to slide to third place in the division.
New England Patriots In The Cellar:
The New England Patriots have themselves in unfamiliar positions the last few years. After Tom Brady left the team before the 2020 season, the team has posted two losing seasons in the last three seasons. Despite Bill Belichick’s personal greatness as a head coach, the offensive coaching staff failed second-year quarterback Mac Jones last year. At a critical point in his career development, the offense was entrusted to former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former special teams coordinator Joe Judge.
While the Patriots have an experienced offensive coordinator now with Bill O’Brien, the fierce competition in the AFC East suggests they are likely to end up at the bottom of the standings for the first time since Belichick’s first season in New England. Assuming the other teams remain healthy, the Patriots will need Mac Jones to make a monumental leap in ability this season to compete against the other teams in the division.
Read our other division predictions:
Chiefs Continued Dominance: Predictions for the AFC West
NFC South Rankings: Analyzing the Division's Teams and Outlook
By Oliver Vaughn
July 7th, 2023
The NFC South division is filled with competitive teams, making it difficult to predict their rankings. In this analysis, we will assess each team's position groups, coaching staffs, and overall outlook heading into the upcoming training camp. By assigning numerical weights to each position group ranking, we can gauge the relative strength of each team.
Despite minor variations, all four teams in the division have a reasonable chance of finishing anywhere within the top four spots. This uncertainty adds excitement for football fans, but it might cause anxiety for Tampa Bay Buccaneers supporters. Without further ado, let's delve into the full team rankings of the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints claim the top spot in the NFC South rankings. Led by quarterback Derek Carr, they possess strong units in running back, wide receiver, tight end, linebacker, safety, and special teams. The Saints have constructed a solid all-around roster, with their only weakness being the offensive line. This team's success largely depends on the performance of their quarterback and the coaching staff's ability to overcome offensive line challenges.
However, with a strong supporting cast and a competitive defense under head coach Dennis Allen, the Saints are in a good position to contend for the division title and a playoff berth.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finish just behind the Saints in the rankings, with a difference of 1.5 points. They share the highest number of top position groups with the Atlanta Falcons, totaling four.
The Bucs have assembled a plethora of talent on the defensive side of the ball, boasting players like Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, and Antoine Winfield Jr. Coached by an innovative mind, they have the potential to possess the best defense in football, if not just in the NFC South. However, questions arise on the offensive side, particularly at running back and with a rookie play-caller. Despite these concerns, the Bucs are embracing variance and banking on the potential resurgence of their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, to propel them to success.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons ranking might seem surprising, but the absence of synergy in the calculations could explain this discrepancy. Head coach Arthur Smith is constructing an offense that will be challenging for opponents to stop. The Falcons showed promise in their run game last year and have further bolstered their offensive line.
With the synergy of a potent run game against defenses primarily focused on stopping the pass, the Atlanta Falcons odds could emerge as the top offense in the NFC South.
On the defensive side, notable signings have elevated the talent level, but the cohesion of these additions remains uncertain. If the defense can gel, the Falcons might surprise as a dark horse playoff contender.
Carolina Panthers
Although the Carolina Panthers possess potential for higher rankings in the future, they are currently in a rebuilding phase. With a new coaching staff and a rookie first-round quarterback, the Panthers exhibit typical markers of a team in transition. Despite having some talented players, they did not rank first in any position group within the NFC South.
In fact, they ranked last in five different areas. However, the Panthers' coaching staff stands out as the division's best, which can maximize the team's potential even with a less impressive roster. This coaching advantage could help the Panthers compete sooner rather than later.
Conclusion
The NFC South is a highly competitive division, and each team has a viable path to claim the top spot. After careful analysis, the New Orleans Saints emerge with a slight edge due to their strong defense and the presence of the division's best quarterback.
However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers all possess unique strengths and factors that could influence the division's outcome. As football fans, we can eagerly anticipate an exciting battle among these teams in the upcoming season.
Read our other division predictions:
Chiefs Continued Dominance: Predictions for the AFC West
The Ascendancy of the Lions: NFC North's 2023 Frontrunner
Sustained Success of the Bills: AFC East’s 2023 Frontrunner
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By Stephen Juza
July 4th, 2023
Each January and February, the coaching carousel rotates as several head coaches are fired, and new coaches are hired to replace them. Coaching trees expand with these changes, adding new branches or forming their own tree altogether. While coaching trees are often open to interpretation, let’s take a look at the current NFL coaching landscape.
Andy Reid:
Andy Reid continues to boast the largest active coaching tree in the league, with five former assistants currently leading teams. Over the years, we’ve emphasized how superb his coaching tree has been, and each year it continues to get better. It’s not just Reid’s Chiefs that dictated the path to the Super Bowl last season; four of the eight divisions last season were won by either Reid or one of his coaching protégés. Online NFL odds makers suggest that the path to the Super Bowl will again run through Reid’s tree in the coming season.
While four of the five coaches won division championships last season, Ron Rivera was the lone exception. Leading the Commanders to a last place finish in the NFC East in his third season with the team, his time could be cut short in Washington unless he turns around the team this season.
Regardless of Rivera's situation, it's evident that Reid and his coaching tree will continue to exert a significant influence in the league for years to come. Their collective impact ensures a formidable presence on the coaching landscape, shaping the future of the NFL.
Orange coaches not active head coaches
Sean McVay:
The second largest active coach tree belongs to Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay. Despite a difficult 2022 season in Los Angeles, McVay’s first losing season as a head coach, rumors of retirement swirled around the team. McVay decided to return for the 2023 season, along with key veterans Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford, as the team looks to rebound from their disappointing 5-12 season.
Turning the focus to his coaching tree, the current standard bearer is Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor. After a difficult start to his head coaching career (six wins in his first two seasons), he led the team to a Super Bowl appearance against McVay in Taylor’s third season. The Bengals followed up their AFC Championship with a second division title, the first time in team history they won the division in consecutive seasons.
The coach in the most unknown position may be Matt LaFleur. After winning 13 games in each of his first three seasons, the Packers crashed to third in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers now a New York Jet, the Packers face the challenge of reshaping their offense around first-year starter Jordan Love.
Frank Reich:
Tied for the third largest active coaching tree, Frank Reich was fired by the Colts amid his worst season in Indianapolis. Despite enduring consistent quarterback turnover throughout his five-year tenure, with a new quarterback taking the helm each season, Reich managed to lead the Colts to the playoffs in two out of his four full seasons. Reich was not out of work long - he was quickly hired by the Panthers to lead their franchise.
Reich’s coaching tree is small but growing. Nick Sirianni has shown the most promise of the three branches, leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl berth last season after a wildcard berth in 2021. In the latest offseason, another branch emerged as Jonathan Gannon, former defensive backs coach, was hired as the new head coach for the Arizona Cardinals.
Kyle Shanahan:
Kyle Shanahan leads the other third-largest coaching tree with three active branches. 2022 was a tumultuous year for the 49ers. After a slow start, the team reeled off ten consecutive wins to end the season and clinch the NFC West.
Starting quarterback Trey Lance played only two games before going on the injured reserve list. Prior starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo started ten games before he went down injured and shut down for the season. Subsequently, Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 NFL draft, came in and won his first seven starts (two in the playoffs) before hurting his elbow during the NFC Championship. He was forced to continue playing after fourth-string Josh Johnson was knocked out of the game with his own injury.
Shanahan’s tree has shown limited promise, but Robert Saleh hopes to break that trend this upcoming season. The Jets’ trade for quarterback Aaron Rodgers catapulted the team into Super Bowl contention. Meanwhile, DeMeco Ryans was hired for his first-ever head coaching job in the place where his professional career began - Houston.
Bill Belichick:
Despite his own professional success as arguably the greatest NFL coach ever, Bill Belichick's coaching tree has never made any real impact on the league. With the Patriots continued struggles, missing the playoffs two of the last three years, and fierce competition in the AFC East that may leave the Patriots looking at a last-place finish, we may not see another coach hired from his coaching tree for a while.
That said, Brian Daboll may present the best opportunity to have a successful coach come from his coaching tree. Daboll, the reigning Coach of the Year, led the Giants to only their second playoff berth in the last decade. The other active branch, Josh McDaniels, has a steep uphill climb trying to make his mark in his second head coaching stop. Coming off a 6-11 season, considerable hope is being placed that Garoppolo will be healthy and can lead the offense.
Orange coaches not active head coaches
Remaining Coaches:
Some coaches, such as Mike McCarthy, Pete Carroll, and Mike Tomlin, have simply been coaches long enough that their parent coaches have long since retired from the NFL. Despite their long, successful careers, they have few, or no, active head coaches that have spent time on their coaching staffs.
Methodology:
Coaching trees are often open to interpretation, but throughout the website we automatically place any coach in the tree of a head coach up to their first head coaching opportunity. This allows coaches to be in multiple trees, without limiting them to only one coach that they spent the most time with.
Read last year's coaching tree article here.
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By Stephen Juza
June 28th, 2023
The coaching hot seat is a perennial topic in the NFL, with no coach being immune to the pressure and speculation. With so much turnover, virtually no coach will escape the dreaded hot seat conversation. Even Bill Belichick, who is within striking distance of the career win record, has slowly had the calls for his job ramp up after missing the playoffs in two of the last three seasons.
With so much pressure on coaches, the constant chatter of ‘are they on the Hot Seat’ weighs with every win or loss. A particularly bad loss is immediately followed by “Is this the game that gets them fired?” A key winning streak to close the season can give a team hope that just maybe the coach is living up to the promise and deserves another season at the helm.
This season, we will debut the “Game Over Report” where each week, we will track each coach’s likelihood to be fired by the end of the season. Using a machine learning algorithm, we will assign a probability to each coach that they will be fired by the end of the season.
Who is likely to be fired?
Since 2010, an average of seven coaches have been fired each season. It’s such a common occurrence that a frequent prop bet on various online bookies is for how many coaches will be fired, which coach will be fired, and if they will be fired by the end of the season.
So what does the average fired coach look like? A coach who just led a team to a five-win (or worse) season, who was a career 40%-win percentage coach, and ended the season in the bottom third of the league in points scored and points allowed. If coaches can avoid a terrible season, quiet mediocrity is enough to skate by. Nine-win seasons are typically enough to stick around for another season, if they play nicely with the ownership group.
Which coaches have surprised the model?
While the machine learning algorithm used in the "Game Over Report" boasts a 85% accuracy rate, there have been instances where it failed to predict coaching moves accurately.
Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars – 2013 (68% chance to be fired)
Gus Bradley’s first season in Jacksonville did not inspire much hope for the future. Finishing with a 4-12 record with the worst offense and fourth-worst defense in the league (by points scored). While he survived his initial season, he eventually was fired before the conclusion of his fourth season after leading the team to a 14-48 record.
Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns – 2017 (67% chance to be fired)
Hue Jackson’s lack of firing surprised many people in 2017. Not only was the team coming off an 0-16 season, the team only went 1-15 in his first season with the franchise. Despite the 1-31 record, Jackson came back for a third season, only to be fired eight games into the 2018 season.
Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers – 2014 (0% chance to be fired)
While it was initially reported that the decision to leave the 49ers was a ‘mutual’ decision, Jim Harbaugh disagreed with this statement. The model had 74 instances where a coach had 0% chance of being fired at the end of the season – Harbaugh is the only one that was fired. It’s easy to see why the model was surprised. Winning 70% of his games with the franchise, one NFC championship, and playoffs in three of his four seasons. Success that most franchises would strive for, but friction with ownership led to an earlier departure than expected from the NFL.
As the NFL season unfolds, the "Game Over Report" will provide insights into the likelihood of coaches being fired by the end of the season. While no coach can truly escape the hot seat, the report will offer a glimpse into the unpredictable nature of coaching decisions in the league and keep fans and pundits engaged in the ongoing discussion of job security in the NFL coaching ranks.
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