Pro Football History.com Blog

Makeup of a Defensive Coordinator

By Stephen Juza

March 3rd, 2023

Every year, defenses struggle to keep up with the offensive explosions throughout the league. Scoring peaked in 2020 at 24.8 points per game. In fact, the ten highest scoring seasons since 1970 have occurred in the last twelve seasons. Each year, defensive coordinators are tasked with finding new ways to slow down the increasingly pass-happy offenses.

Our earlier article examined the background of the league’s offensive coordinators where almost two thirds of the tacticians in charge of the offense come from a quarterback coach background. Today, we examine the position coaching background of the 2022 defensive coordinators.

The Coaches:

As with offensive coordinators, not every team has someone designated as the coordinator, and sometimes the head coach is in control of play calling. Two teams, the Saints and the Buccaneers, have split the role in two, one for passing and one for running.

Unlike offense, there is the potential for more granularity in position coaches on the defensive side. Some teams have separate coaches for inside and outside linebackers, defensive tackles and defensive ends, etc. For this article, I’ve grouped the coaches into defensive line, linebackers, and secondary coaches.

Career Experience:

Across the league, defensive coordinators in 2022 were more likely to come from farther away on the line of scrimmage. Seventeen of the thirty four coaches had experience coaching defensive backs, seventeen coached linebackers, and five had experience with defensive lines. Since coaches have opportunities to coach multiple positions during their career, these numbers don’t line up perfectly, as five coaches had experience crossing multiple position groups.

Defensive coordinators spent about eight seasons in their career as a position coach prior to their current coordinator position. This is almost double the experience with offensive coordinators (~4.75 seasons of experience). Several offensive coordinators came in with zero NFL position coaching experience, a fact not shared by the defensive staff.

What stands out to me is how little there is a relationship between experience and results on the defensive end. Unlike the offensive side of the ball, where more experience generally led to higher scoring offenses, defenses led by coordinators with more experience had worse performing units.

The top ten most-experienced coordinators (ten or more seasons as a position coach) led units that averaged just over 23 points per game. Looking at the other end of the experience spectrum, the nine least-experienced coaches (two through four seasons of experience) led units averaging 21 points per game. Additionally, it’s not simply because the coaches with the most potential move up to coordinators quickly - both groups have spent similar time in coordinator roles as well.

Positional Coaching Experience:

Not only is the number of years of experience not related to team performance, there is little difference between what level of defense they were coaching. Former linebackers coaches led defenses that gave up an average of 21.5 points per game, best of the three position groups. Former secondary coaches gave up the most points per game at 22.1 - a difference of only 3%.

No matter how you slice it, no amount of experience trends toward better performing defenses.

Key Takeaways: My theory on why we see such a lack of a difference compared to offensive coordinators is due to the unique ways that defenses can help cover their own shortcomings. An excellent pass rush can make a secondary seem better because opposing quarterbacks have less time to throw. Lockdown cornerbacks can give their defensive line more time to get to the quarterback.

The same is not inherently true on offense. An excellent quarterback can cover up deficiencies across the unit, but the same is not necessarily true for other units. Look no further than prime Randy Moss for the best example of this.

His two seasons in Oakland in the middle of prime, were season lows for his career up to that point (excluding 2004 where he only played 13 games). Despite his talent, in 2006 the Raiders had the third worst passing offense in the league. After being traded to New England, he immediately broke the individual season receiving touchdown record as the Patriots set all sorts of team offense records.

Defensive coordinators are tasked with slowing down the increasingly potent offenses around the league. When teams look to hire one, betting on experience to elevate the defensive unit may not be the way to go.

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Recent History of Super Bowl Underdogs

By Oliver Vaughn

February 23rd, 2023

Are you wondering how often favorites and underdogs have won the Super Bowl in the last five years? Well, we have the answer for you. Keep reading to find out who has been winning the most and why.

Overview

The past 5 Super Bowls have offered a treat to both favorite and underdog fans. Of the 5 Super Bowls played in the last five years, the favorite team has won 2 of these matchups, and 3 out of 5 wins went to the underdog team, highlighting their determination and resilience despite any underlying disadvantages.

Super Bowl LVII

During the build-up to Super Bowl 57, held a few days ago, analysts across the board gave the Kansas City Chiefs slim chances of triumph against their celebrated opponents, the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite the lopsided predictions, quite a few remained hopeful that quarterback Patrick Mahomes' prowess might just be enough to bridge the gap between them and the reigning champions.

Remarkably, through an intense game and some clever play-calling by Andy Reid’s team, they upended expectations and emerged victorious at 38-35 in one of the sport’s all-time greatest showdowns.

Super Bowl LVI

In 2022, the Los Angeles Rams made an incredible upset against the Cincinnati Bengals, thereby ending their four-game losing streak. Despite the odds being firmly in favor of the Bengal's advantage due to their strong momentum coming from a streak of three consecutive wins, it was the Rams rallied late to pull off a stunning 23-20 victory on their home turf.

This triumphant win was solely credited to the timely and clutch performance by quarterback Joe Burrow and his offensive line, which successfully pushed back against a fierce defensive push from the Bengals.

It was truly an admirable display of strength and resilience by the Rams that saw them come out on top that day, giving them much-needed confidence as they geared up to push further into postseason play.

Super Bowl LV

The victory of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV was truly remarkable. Going into the game, most professional football analysts had picked the Chiefs as favorites because of their impressive season record and experience.

However, the Bucs proved to be too strong for them, showcasing superior tactics and defensive play throughout all four quarters. From Tom Brady's pinpoint accuracy to Devin White's gutsy defensive decisions, the Bucs completely outplayed their opponents and clinched a decisive win with a score of 31-9. This result is sure to go down as one of the biggest upsets in NFL history and serves as a testament to what teamwork, leadership, and determination can achieve.

Super Bowl LIV

Many believed that the 2020 Super Bowl would be a match for the ages, pitting the heavily favored Kansas City Chiefs against the underdog San Francisco 49ers, with many betting on the upset.

However, when the final whistle blew, it was confirmed: The Chiefs had come out victorious at 31-21. Led by Patrick Mahomes, who was named MVP of Super Bowl LIV, and veteran guru Andy Reid on the sidelines, it's no surprise how deftly they were able to defeat their opponents.

Super Bowl LIII

The 2019 Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams was one of the most highly anticipated games in NFL history. The Patriots, who fielded an experienced team with veteran talent and a four-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback, were heavy favorites to take home another championship.

Despite the Rams' impressive regular season record and a younger yet talented roster, it felt that the odds were against them coming into this big game. Turned out that the pre-game analysis was spot on. On February 3rd, 2019, the Patriots made sure to shut down any possible comeback from their opponent.

They dominated both offense and defense, and after four quarters of play, they took the crown with a score of 13 - 3. Although it was a much less exciting game than expected, it was a great victory for New England’s veteran team full of illustrious historical NFL players such as Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

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Best 2023 NFL Coach of the Year Candidates

By Oliver Vaughn

January 31st, 2023

With the NFL regular season wrapping up, it's time to start thinking about who the leading candidates are for Coach of the Year. There are a lot of great coaches in the league, but we've narrowed it down to 2023's top five. Here they are; Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles), Brian Daboll (New York Giants), Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars), and Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers). We'll take a look at why each of these coaches deserves consideration for the award.

Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

Kyle Shanahan, the current head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, is a leading candidate for NFL Coach of the Year honors. Leading by example and inspiring his players to better heights, Shanahan has guided the 49ers on an incredible current 13-4 winning streak.

His knack for finding ways to get the most out of all positions has made him a stand-out candidate and a must-watch during this season. With stunts like 4th down gambles and deep strategic analysis during games dominating headlines, there's no doubt he's put himself in line for recognition as one of football's best young coaches.

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Nick Sirianni, the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, has emerged as one of the most impressive coaches in the NFL this season. Under his leadership and guidance, the team has exceeded expectations, garnering multiple wins and maintaining a strong hold on a playoff spot.

Sirianni's creative playcalling ability and innovative smart adjustments to game situations have generated tremendous praise from football pundits near and far. With an explosive offense and solid defense, there's no denying that he is another great NFL coach of the year candidate - a well-deserved honor for one of the league's best minds.

Brian Daboll, New York Giants (9-7-1)

Brian Daboll, coach of the New York Giants, has strongly impacted the 2023 season. His guidance helped guide the team to an impressive current 9-7-1 record that makes them one of the favorites to land a spot at this year’s Super Bowl, and he is also highly considered for the NFL Coach of the Year Award.

Daboll has made a name for himself as a coach who positively contributes to his team's success by getting the best out of their players. Even more amazingly, this is all accomplished under the tremendous pressure on coaches today. If Brian continues his trajectory of great success, he may soon be walking away with one of football’s most prestigious awards.

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

Doug Pederson is another likely candidate for NFL coach of the year. After taking over the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022, Pederson has reshaped the team and made a real impact on their performance this season. From his record with the Philadelphia Eagles and an impressive 20 years as a coach, he came in with big aspirations in Jacksonville.

With a new energy, training regimens, and approaches to both offensive and defensive play, he’s turned things around. It seems like the Jackson Jaguars can only be going up from here! We’ll have to wait and see if his hard work pays off, but it looks like Doug Pederson is one of the strongest contenders for the NFL Coach of The Year award.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

Mike Tomlin, the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, has been praised as one of the best coaches in the NFL. During his 15-year career with the Steelers, Tomlin managed to bring them to three Super Bowl appearances, securing two victories and six division titles.

His innovative methods and untiring drive have helped propel him to become a nominee for such a prestigious award this season. Despite being unable to make a super bowl appearance this year, Mike Tomlin's immense capabilities have demonstrated why he is truly one of the most valuable members of the Pittsburgh Steelers family.

Although the NFL Coach of the Year is one of the most anticipated awards, the NFL props have also made quite a stir, with the NFL player props odds getting impressive volume this season. So as we enter the final stages of the 2022-23 season, be sure to stay up to date with the latest NFL news and rumors, as there is sure to be more drama before the season ends at the Super Bowl on the 12th of February!

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What Makes a Good Offensive Coordinator?

By Stephen Juza

January 25th, 2023

As the league becomes more geared toward offense, increased importance is placed on hiring the best possible coaching staff to work with the players. As we look around the coordinator landscape, today we dive into what backgrounds the 2022 offensive coordinators came from, and what may make a coordinator successful.

Coaches:

Not every team names an offensive coordinator, and not every team has them carry the same responsibilities. The vast majority of teams name an offensive coordinator to implement the offensive strategy and to call plays during the game. However, there are exceptions to this rule.

Some teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs, may have an offensive coordinator, but the head coach still calls plays most of the time. While offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy carries the title, head coach Andy Reid continues to serve as the primary play caller for the offense. Occasionally when the head coach calls the plays, they do not name an offensive coordinator for the team. Finally, there is one team, the New England Patriots, who had the play calling responsibilities fall to Matt Patricia, their Senior Football Advisor/Offensive Line Coach.

Experience:

In 2022, the average offensive coordinator or play-caller had 4.75 seasons of experience as an offensive position coach. This ranged from the twelve seasons for Alex Van Pelt of the Browns, down to zero years of NFL position coach experience for Patricia, Liam Coen, and Kliff Kingsbury, of the Patriots, Rams, and Cardinals, respectively.

While experience may not always dictate success, it certainly appears to help. Coordinators with two or fewer seasons of experience led offenses that only managed an average of 325 yards a game and 20 points. In fact, only two had above-average scoring offenses (Dallas and Las Vegas).

On the other end of the spectrum, coordinators with eight or more years as a position coach led offenses averaging 356 yards and 24 points. That four point improvement is the difference between a team ranked 21st in the league and one ranked 9th overall.

The lack of success comes with a price. When looking at the least experienced coordinators, very few of them are returning to their OC role for next season. Among the nine coordinators with two or fewer seasons as a position coach, only Matt Canada, Mick Lombardi, and Kellen Moore are expected to be on their team in 2023.

Position Experience:

If there is a premium on position coaching experience, which position dominates the offensive coordinator rank? Not likely a surprise, but quarterback coaches are an abundance throughout the coordinator rank.

Twenty one of the coordinators spent time as an NFL quarterbacks coach, by far the most of any position. This doesn’t include Kingsbury who himself was a NFL quarterback (and NCAA quarterbacks coach for several seasons). After quarterbacks came tight ends coach (nine individuals), wide receivers (eight), with offensive line and running back tied for two a piece. (The number doesn’t add up to 32 since coaches have coached multiple positions over their career).

While it may be a quarterback-driven league, hiring an experienced quarterbacks coach to be your offensive coordinator is not always a guaranteed ticket to quarterback success. Two of the five most experienced quarterbacks coaches-turned-coordinator (Pep Hamilton and Todd Downing) led two of the worst offenses this season.

Key Takeaways:

When looking at the list of inexperienced coordinators, it is heavily populated by teams with young quarterbacks. Teams don’t appear to be setting their future franchise quarterback up for success by pairing them with an inexperienced coach.

When examining the remaining teams in the playoffs, all four offensive coordinators have 4+ years as a position coach, and all four are leading high-scoring offenses led by young quarterbacks. It may be a hard adjustment for a new quarterback coming into the league, and teams may not be giving them every chance of success with an experienced coordinator.

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Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: First Time Candidates

By Stephen Juza

January 4th, 2023

With each NFL season, about 25% of the teams will fire their head coach and begin searching for their next franchise savior. In this series, we will look at the top coaching candidates that will be considered for a head coaching opportunity. In our prior posts, we looked at the top former head coaches and the top former players who are primed for a promotion to the head coaching role. In our final post, we look at the best who would be making their first interview for a head coaching vacancy.

Ejiro Evero:

Current Job: Defensive Coordinator, Denver Broncos

Broncos Record: 4-12-0

Years of NFL Experience: Fifteen seasons in the NFL, with one as a defensive coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Ejiro Evero will be a new branch in the Gruden/Morris/Harbaugh/Tomsula/McCarthy/McVay/Hackett coaching trees. Evero spent two years as a member of Jon Gruden's staff, one year as a member of Raheem Morris' staff, four years as a member of Jim Harbaugh's staff, one year as a member of Jim Tomsula's staff, one year as a member of Mike McCarthy's staff, five years as a member of Sean McVay's staff, and one year as a member of Nathaniel Hackett's staff.

Parting Thoughts: The Broncos general manager has already stated he would like to interview Evero for the top job after the season. He declined the offer to interview for the interim head coach position after Hackett was fired mid-season. Evero has had tremendous success with defenses across multiple coaching stops. While the Broncos season has been far worse than expected, the defense has been a consistent bright spot and a source of optimism.

Shane Steichen:

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Record: 13-3-0

Years of NFL Experience: Twelve seasons in the NFL, including three as offensive coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Shane Steichen will be a new branch for the Turner/Chudzinski/McCoy/Lynn/Sirianni coaching trees. Steichen spent two years as a member of Norv Turner's staff, one year as a member of Rob Chudzinski's staff, three years as a member of Mike McCoy's staff, four years as a member of Anthony Lynn's staff, and two years as a member of Nick Sirianni's staff.

Award-winning Players: Justin Herbert, 2020, AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Los Angeles Chargers

Parting Thoughts: Steichen has never interviewed for a head coaching position before, but his success with the Eagles offense over the last two seasons will garner serious looks this offseason.

Ben Johnson:

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Detroit Lions

Lions Record: 8-8-0

Years of NFL Experience: Ten seasons in the NFL, with one season as an offensive coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Ben Johnson will be a new branch in the Philbin/Gase/Patricia/Campbell coaching trees. Johnson spent four years as a member of Joe Philbin's staff, three years as a member of Adam Gase's staff, one year as a member of Matt Patricia's staff, and two years as a member of Dan Campbell's staff.

Parting Thoughts: Johnson has the Lions offense performing way above expectations throughout the season. After finishing last season at 3-13-1, Johnson was promoted to offensive coordinator. The offense responded by ranking fourth in points scored in the 2022 season, an improvement over the 25th ranking in 2021.

Shane Waldron:

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Record: 8-8-0

Years of NFL Experience: Twelve seasons in the NFL, two as offensive coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Shane Waldron will be a new branch in the Belichick/Gruden/McVay/Carroll coaching trees. Waldron spent one year as a member of Bill Belichick's staff, one year as a member of Jay Gruden's staff, four years as a member of Sean McVay's staff, and two years as a member of Pete Carroll's staff.

Parting Thoughts: The Seahawks offense surprised many this season after losing former All-Pro quarterback Russell Wilson. However, new quarterback Geno Smith has posted his best season of his ten-year career. Waldron has coached with several of the top coaches in the game, and could bring valuable experience to a new franchise should he be hired.

Frank Smith:

Current Job: Offensive Coordinator, Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Record: 7-9-0

Years of NFL Experience: Thirteen seasons in the NFL, and one season as offensive coordinator.

Coaching Trees: If hired, Frank Smith will be a new branch in the Payton/Fox/Gruden/Staley/McDaniel coaching trees. Smith spent four years as a member of Sean Payton's staff, three years as a member of John Fox's staff, three years as a member of Jon Gruden's staff, one year as a member of Brandon Staley's staff, and one year as a member of Mike McDaniel's staff.

Parting Thoughts: When he was healthy, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa posted his best season of his short career. In a quarterback-driven league, teams will likely give Smith a look at a head coaching vacancy to hope he can replicate the same success with a new quarterback.

Check out the prior two posts in the series:

Prior Article: Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: Former NFL Players

Prior Article: Overview of Potential Head Coach Candidates: Former Head Coaches

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