Pro Football History.com Blog

The Boom-Or-Bust Nature of College Coaches

By Stephen Juza

January 17th, 2021

On January 14th, the Jacksonville Jaguars announced Urban Meyer as their new head coach, turning the keys of the franchise over to a coach who has no NFL experience. Heading into the offseason, they have the first pick in the draft with a generational quarterback talent available in Trevor Lawrence, and they have the most cap space of any team. It could be a very quick turnaround for the franchise, with the ability to change much of the roster that finished 1-15 in 2020.

However, hiring a coach without NFL experience is usually a risky proposition in NFL history. Since 1980, Meyer will be the twelfth head coach to be hired without any NFL coaching experience. Three of the twelve coached in other professional leagues, either the CFL or the USFL, while the other nine had coached exclusively in college. Success is a mixed bag from this group, a trend that the Jaguars hope Meyer will break.

The gold standard of this group is either Jimmy Johnson or Barry Switzer. Both were hired by the Dallas Cowboys, and they are two of the three coaches who have won both a college national championship and a Super Bowl (Pete Carroll is the other). Between Johnson’s hiring in 1989 and Switzer resigning from the team in 1997, the team went 84-60, with three Super Bowl titles. In fact, from 1991 to 1996, the Cowboys went 70-26, good for a winning percentage of 73%. These coaching hires can clearly pay dividends for a team.

Meyer is the most accomplished coach from this group of twelve and his college success matches closely with Switzer and Johnson. He found success wherever he coached. He won three national championships, two with Florida and one with Ohio State, and had an undefeated season at Utah. In fact, he is only the second coach to win a national championship at multiple schools, preceded by current Alabama coach Nick Saban.

However, success is not a sure thing. Even removing Johnson and Switzer, there are accomplished names in the group. Steve Spurrier and Dennis Erickson both won college championships and Hugh Campbell won five Grey Cups in the CFL. But the remaining nine coaches have an average winning percentage of 37% and failed to win a single playoff game in their combined 34 seasons.

At a pivotal moment in their franchise, the Jaguars are putting all their eggs in the Urban Meyer basket. Meyer has already said that whoever the team drafts first in April will be one of the most important professional decisions in his career. With a successful draft in April, the Jaguars could be set up for success for years to come.

When should you move on from your coach?

By Stephen Juza

December 25th, 2020

With the end of each NFL season comes a range of decisions that general managers have to make regarding their head coach. For underperforming teams, these questions focus on retention. Should the team move on from their current coach, or does the general manager think the coach will improve with one more season? Looking through coaching data since 1978 (when the league adopted a 16-game season), very few coaches have a poor first season and eventually turn into a winning coach.

Not every coaching hire achieve success as quickly as Doug Pederson did with the Philadelphia Eagles--capping his second season as a head coach with a Super Bowl victory. There are many successful coaches who take longer to reach the pinnacle of their career. Andy Reid was a head coach twenty one years before finally winning a Super Bowl, despite having one of the most accomplished head coaching careers in the modern NFL.

When looking at a chart of all coaches’ winning percentage as their career progresses, unsuccessful coaches have their career end early, leaving an indistinguishable mark in the chart below. Few coaches make it multiple years with a sub-.500 winning percentage. As coaches drop out of the dataset, survivorship bias slowly pushes the average winning percentage to around 60% for those that coach more than 200 games.

What does a poor initial season tell us about his future prospects? There are 191 coaches who have coached an entire 16-game season since 1978. After their first season, the average win percentage of the bottom third is 23%--the equivalent of a 3.6 win season. By the end of their coaching careers--whenever that may be--their career winning percentage isn’t much better, rising to only 33% by their final game.

Is this enough to write off a coach’s future? Almost a third of teams do--only 45 coaches complete another season as head coach. However, this group does contain some coaches who were able to quickly rebound after a poor first season. Reid was able to overcome a 5-11 start to his career to improve the Eagles to 11-5 and a playoff appearance in his second season, en route to a Hall of Fame-worthy career.

For coaches that start even worse than Reid, the chance of rebounding to be a successful NFL head coach are slim. Coaches who win fewer than four wins their first season average less than six wins in their next season--if they survive through two full seasons at all. Over the course of their career, their collective win percentage is below 30%.

However, while success is rare from these coaches, it is possible for a great coach to emerge from such a bad start. While this group contains such coaches as Cam Cameron (1-15 with the Dolphins in 2007 and not retained), it also contains several Hall of Fame coaches: Bill Parcells (3-12-1 in 1983) and Jimmy Johnson (1-15 in 1989).

In recent seasons, NFL teams are typically very quick to fire coaches who are underperforming. A coach is only as good as their recent season, as Pederson is finding out. After four seasons with the Eagles, two division titles, and a Super Bowl, he has faced criticism and talk of replacements much of the 2020 season throughout the worst season of his career. If Parcells or Johnson had started their career in 2020 instead of the 1980s, they may not have been able to overcome their dreadful inaugural season to compile their lengthy career.

The Weather's Influence on the NFL Playoff Picture

By Stephen Juza

December 5th, 2020

As the season progresses, NFL teams need to prepare for the weather to play an increasing role in their game planning. Using forecast data from NFLWeather.com between 2009-2019, one in twenty NFL games in September and October are played in inclement weather, defined as freezing temperatures or precipitation during the game. In the later months, as many as one in five games will be played in these conditions during December.

Month	Games in Inclement Weather
September	6%
October	6%
Novemeber	8%
December	20%
January	29%

While the weather is inescapable for some teams such as the Buffalo Bills or the Green Bay Packers, other teams such as the New Orleans Saints or the Los Angeles Chargers will only encounter harsh weather conditions on the road. Encountering these conditions may leave those franchises unprepared. Home field advantage plays a more significant role across the league, increasing the home team’s win percentage 11% during inclement weather.

While playing on the road already stacks the deck against the visitors, those franchises that infrequently play in the cold or rain have their road winning percentage drop from 46% to 28% during harsh conditions. For teams that more frequently play in these conditions, their winning percentage only drops to 40% on the road during the regular season.

This phenomenon becomes more pronounced during the playoffs, when games carry more importance. Winter weather evens the playing field for the road team, making upsets more likely. Home teams win 62% of playoff games, but only 54% when they are played in these inclement weather conditions. The ability to pull off these upsets depends greatly on how often franchises play in these conditions.

When a franchise that rarely plays in the cold or rain has to play in these conditions on the road for the playoffs, their win percentage drops from 33% to 11%. These teams rarely play in these conditions, and likely can’t practice in these conditions even if they wanted to, leaving it more difficult to prepare themselves as well as they possibly can.

However, for the top third of the league that already frequently plays in these conditions, upsets become far more likely. Their winning percentage on the road jumps from 39% to 71%. Besides the experience of playing in these games, they also may be able to practice in these conditions throughout the week since their own practice conditions likely mirror that of the road stadium.

How will this potentially impact the playoffs this season? As the standings currently sit, in the AFC, the three highest seeds (Steelers, Chiefs, and Bills) are among the teams with the most games in inclement weather. It could be difficult to upset them during the playoffs if winter weather sets in, making their path to the Super Bowl easier.

In the NFC, the opposite may happen. The onset of winter weather likely won’t influence their games come playoff time. Right now, the path to the Super Bowl travels through New Orleans, a domed stadium. However, sitting one game back from the Saints is the Packers. A road playoff game at Lambeau Field in January will prove a daunting task for many aspiring playoff teams.

With only a few weeks remaining in the season, there is still plenty of football to play. But the weather will play an increasingly large role in game-planning between now and the end of the season, and one that will increasingly tip the odds in the favor of the seasoned team.

Top Coaching Trees in NFL History

By Stephen Juza

October 17th, 2020

Throughout NFL history, coaching strategies can be traced by following a head coach’s coaching tree--assistants from their coaching staff that went on to become head coaches themselves. Previously, an article examined the difference in success between Andy Reid’s and Bill Belichick’s coaching trees. While Reid’s was clearly superior, it begs the question: how does it stack up among the best coaching trees in history?

Two head coaches stand out with the most successful coaching trees in NFL history, leading in NFL championships won while also maintaining their own level of personal success.

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Jim Lee Howell--Highest Coaching Tree Win Percentage (59.6%), Tied for Most Championships Won(7)

Jim Lee Howell was the head coach of the New York Giants from 1954-1960 before moving into a front office role. During his seven season head coaching career, the Giants won a single NFL championship and played in two more. However, his coaching staff was packed with future talent that would influence the NFL for the next four decades.

Howell’s coaching tree does not have the breadth of other coaches, consisting of only four coaches. Between the four of them, they won 421 games and seven championships in their combined fifty one seasons leading their own team--the vast majority of that success coming from Vince Lombardi and Tom Landry, two of the most successful coaches in league history.

Lombardi was the first coach from his tree to branch out and lead a team on his own. While Lombardi’s claim to fame comes from his tenure with the Green Bay Packers, he was an impressive offensive coordinator for years under Howell. Pioneering a zone blocking scheme, the Giants offense improved from last to sixth in a single season.

Under Lombardi’s leadership the Packers won five championships in seven years, a run of domination that has yet to be surpassed by any team in league history. During his career, he would also hold one of the highest winning percentages among coaches in NFL history.

After coaching the defense for six years under Howell, Landry became the first head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Leading the Cowboys for 29 years, Landry’s team won more than half of the coaching tree’s total victories (250).

Under Landry, the Cowboys grew into the dominating team in the NFL during the 1970s, winning two championships and playing three more. While the team remained competitive throughout the 1980s, Landry’s time with the Cowboys, and the NFL, came to an end in 1988 under new owner Jerry Jones.

Not only is Howell’s coaching tree dominant in the regular season, they are also tied with the most championship rings among coaching trees (seven) with Paul Brown’s tree.

Paul Brown--Tied for Most Championships Won (7)

Paul Brown began his NFL coaching career in 1946 for the eponymous Cleveland Browns, replacing the city’s team after the Rams left in 1945. Starting in the All-American Football Conference (AAFC), the Browns dominated the new league to the point of dissolution.

In the four years of the AAFC’s existence, the Browns won all four championships while posting a regular season record of 47-4-3. After four seasons, the league dissolved and the Browns, along with two other teams, joined the NFL. However, this didn’t halt the Browns’ domination. The team played in the NFL championship seven of their first eight years, winning three.

During Brown’s 25-year career with both the Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals, five of his assistants became head coaches themselves. The most successful of the five were Weeb Ewbank and Bill Walsh.

Ewbank was the first to get a head coaching position, first leading the Baltimore Colts and eventually the New York Jets. Ewbank led the Colts for nine seasons and two championships, working with the legendary QB Johnny Unitas. After his tenure with the Colts, Ewbank led the Jets for the newly established American Football League (AFL), eventually winning Super Bowl III. This helped lead to a merger between the AFL and the NFL.

Bill Walsh coached quarterbacks and wide receivers for Paul Brown during his tenure with the Bengals. Walsh left the Bengals after Brown stepped down and coached a year in San Diego before becoming head coach for Stanford for two years. In 1979, Walsh earned his opportunity as an NFL head coach for the San Francisco 49ers.

During Walsh’s ten years as a head coach, the 49ers won three Super Bowls and spawned an offensive revolution throughout the league. Walsh adapted the offense around quick, short passes built on precise timing. Not only did this lead to the dominant dynasty for the 49ers through the 80s, but also Walsh’s own successful coaching tree that soon saw the West Coast Offense take hold across the league.

Andy Reid--Successful and Still Growing

Reid’s tree has more branches (ten) than either Brown or Howell, and is still growing. Eric Bieniemy, the Chiefs current offensive coordinator, has been considered a top head coaching candidate for a few years and will definitely receive consideration again this year January.

However, the tree has a long way to go to match the success of either Howell or Brown. Reid’s assistants have only won two championships so far and several have left a lot to be desired as a head coach. Steve Spagnuolo, for example, lost more games in his three seasons as a head coach for the St. Louis Rams than Andy Reid has lost since 2012.

However, several coaches are primed to carry the torch of Reid’s coaching tree for many years to come. John Harbaugh looks to have the Baltimore Ravens built to compete for many years behind reigning MVP Lamar Jackson while Sean McDermott has the Bills in the pole position to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995. Even if they can’t surpass either Brown or Howell’s trees, they can further cement their status as the most dominating coaching tree in several decades.

Methodological Note: Only trees with at least four coaches were included. When looking at the success of coaching trees, I made the decision to remove Bill Belichick’s stats from the analysis. The success of the Patriots dynasty made any historical comparison irrelevant. His individual success was enough to raise his parent coaches to the top of virtually any comparison made, making the impact of the broader tree impossible. When removing Belichick’s impact, the affected trees fell far behind the success of Howell or Brown.

Redemption or Retread?

By Stephen Juza

October 9th, 2020

Each January, the coaching carousel turns in the NFL, leading several teams to give walking papers to their head coaches in hopes of future success. However, even with the utmost consideration, replacing a head coach can lead to dismal results for a team.

Should a team select an up-and-coming coordinator to be a rookie head coach? Should they hire someone from the college ranks? Or should they hire one of the many experienced head coaches waiting for a shot to redeem themselves?

Since the NFL merger in 1970, only 66 coaches have been hired for a second head coaching opportunity. These coaches fall into one of four groups:

Unsuccessful in their first job and immediately hired for their second job (the “Adam”)
Successful in their first job, but at least a year between their head coaching opportunities (the “Mike”)
Unsuccessful in their first job, but at least a year between their head coaching opportunities (the “Bill”)
Successful in their first job and immediately hired for their second role (the “Andy”)

For a general manager, there is no guarantee for success regardless of which coach they hire. There is also not a more consequential decision they will make in their job. Unfortunately, there’s far more chance of failure than success; the average coach in the NFL, throughout the league's history, has a sub-.500 winning percentage. For every Don Shula (with a win percentage of 68%), there are a dozen Hue Jacksons (with a win percentage of only 21%).

However, we may gain more insight into this conundrum by comparing examples of the four groups of redemption (or retread) coach:

The “Adam”:

In 2019, the Miami Dolphins fired Adam Gase after three seasons. After a promising rookie season, the Dolphins went 13-19 in his last two seasons, and Gase was subsequently fired. Despite the lack of success, the New York Jets swooped in and hired him less than two weeks later.

It seems crazy to expect different results, but what does NFL history tell us about a coach like Gase, who was sub .500 in their first job and immediately hired by a new team. This doesn’t happen very often, and for good reason. Barring a dramatic turnaround by Gase and the Jets the rest of the season, none of the six coaches would go on to have a winning record in their second job.

Ray Rhodes was close, posting a record of 8-8 in his sole season for the Green Bay Packers.

Teams tend to quickly recognize their error, and “Adam” typically only coaches 35 games for his second team; more than two seasons, but fewer games than the other coach groups. Historically, expecting a failed coach to immediately turn into a winning coach in a single offseason seems like a tall order, and one that GMs should shy away from in the future.

The “Mike”:

Mike McCarthy had an incredibly successful run with the Packers starting in 2006. After an 8-8 season that year, the Packers won at least 10 games in eight of the next ten seasons, including a Super Bowl victory after the 2010 season. However, the Packers couldn’t maintain that excellence forever, and McCarthy was fired during the 2018 season, going 12-16-1 in his final two years. Spending a year outside of the NFL, he re-emerged in 2020 as the new head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys appear primed for success behind young stars Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, and after a decade of mediocrity under Jason Garrett, they are eager to prove themselves. Tenacity aside, here’s a word of caution for Cowboys fans: this coaching group rarely works out.

“Mikes” tie for the largest number of repeat coaching hires; twenty-three of the 66 rehired coaches fall under this group. After winning an average of 58% of their games in their first job, or at least for nine wins every year, their average win percentage drops down to 39% with their next team, translating to only six wins per season. Most of the coaches in this group had amazing success in their first job that failed to develop in their next job.

Vince Lombardi won five championships with the Packers, but he only went 7-5-2 and missed the playoffs in his sole season with the Washington Redskins. Jimmy Johnson won two Super Bowls with the Cowboys in the 90s. He only won two playoff games with the Dolphins in his four seasons as their head coach.

However, the largest drop-off in success belongs to George Seifert. After winning two Super Bowls and 75% of his games in San Francisco, he was tasked with leading the expansion team, Carolina Panthers. In three seasons, the Panthers won 16 games and endured a then-record 15 consecutive losses.

While bringing in a “Mike” to turn around the franchise seems like a sure thing, only 4 of the 23 coaches in this group won more games than they lost with their second team.

The “Bill”:

Bill Belichick was a rising star as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, a star pupil of Bill Parcells, and instrumental in their two Super Bowl wins. After the second Super Bowl victory for the Giants in 1990, he earned his first shot as an NFL head coach. However, the five seasons leading the Cleveland Browns were anything but the success the team envisioned. Winning only 45% of their games and one trip to the playoffs in that time led to Belichick’s firing as the team moved to Baltimore before the 1996 season.

Belichick returned to the assistant ranks for several seasons before rising back to the head coaching level for the New England Patriots in 2000. From there, the Patriots have reeled off one of the greatest dynasties in all of sports history.

While Belichick is a clear outlier—any team would love to hire arguably the greatest coach ever—the break in head coaching stints seems important when hiring a “Bill”. While “Mikes” seem to regress after their time off, “Bills” come back better.

Six of the 23 coaches in this category improved to have winning records. Belichick isn’t the only Super Bowl coach in the group: Gary Kubiak won the Super Bowl in 2015 with the Broncos and Marv Levy took the Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls.

The time away from head coaching seems like it gives these coaches an opportunity to reflect on what they did wrong in their first job, and come up with ways to fix it for their next team. This leaves the last, and most successful group.

The “Andy”:

Andy Reid was incredibly successful with the Philadelphia Eagles, making numerous NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl during his fourteen years as their head coach. However, after a long run of success, his tenure ended on a sour note. The team finished 4-12 in 2012, only the third losing season of Reid’s tenure, and the Eagles fired him. Quickly, the Kansas City Chiefs hired Reid as their head coach in 2013, and his success followed him. Seven seasons, 82 wins (and counting), six playoff berths, and one Super Bowl win followed.

While it’s rare that a successful coach is fired, they are able to bring that success to their new team better than any other group. . Of the 14 “Andys”, six of them continued to have a winning record for their second team. Not only are they winning games, they are winning Super Bowls. Tony Dungy, Don Shula, and Jon Gruden won four Super Bowls between them with their second stints as a head coach, and George Allen and Mike Holmgren went to one each.

While “Mikes” tend to do worse after some time away from head coaching, “Andys” are more likely to pick up at their peak and continue winning. Occasionally, they elevate their already high bar of success to new levels.

This track record bodes well this season for Washington and new head coach Ron Rivera—the latest “Andy” to be hired. After nine seasons as the head coach of the Panthers in which he coached the team to the playoffs four times and one Super Bowl, Rivera was hired by Washington as their new head coach.

Importance of Experience:

While there is a lot to consider when hiring experienced NFL head coaches, there seems to be one more variable that could help GMs make this critical decision—years of experience. Regardless of their prior success or time off, making it at least five seasons with their former team is a critical indicator of future success for most redemption coaches.

Only three coaches (out of thirty) who failed to make it five years in their initial head coaching gig were able to turn it around and lead their second team to a winning record. Jon Gruden is one of those three coaches, who moved from a successful tenure with the Oakland Raiders to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and led them to a Super Bowl in his first season as their head coach (against his former team, no less).

While former tenure (or lack thereof) offers similar results for “Mikes”, it seems to be the biggest benchmark for a “Bill” to become successful. If they were good enough to coach five years in their first job, while it wasn’t ultimately successful, they have valuable experience to bring to their future job. Five of the seven “Bills” that made it five years ended up winning in their second job. This is also an important factor for “Andys” as well. Five of nine “Andys” were successful once again, compared to only one of five rehires that coached four years or less with their first team.

It offers a mark of future success for all coaches--except for “Adam”. No one should hire an “Adam”, as the Jets are currently finding out.

After this season, there will be inevitably several head coaching positions opening up. Who are some current NFL assistants primed for a second chance at head coaching jobs? There are two potential “Bills” with five years of experience: former head coaches Jim Schwartz and Jay Gruden. Both have at least five years of experience and coached a team to the playoffs.

There could be a few other enticing names, albeit falling short of the five years of experience, such as Josh McDaniels or Steve Spagnuolo. Both had disastrous results as a head coach in their first stint, but have had a decade pass since they were a head coach and, subsequently, may have learned a few new tricks.

Either way, teams should shy away from fired coaches who failed to win in their first job. Chances are, they will replicate the success, or lack thereof, and both the teams and the fans will find themselves disappointed.