Pro Football History.com Blog
February 6th, 2025
You might wonder if first-time NFL head coaches are truly capable of transforming struggling franchises. The data suggests a compelling narrative of potential and strategic innovation, where new leadership can quickly reshape team dynamics. With average win improvements and fresh tactical approaches, these coaches challenge traditional expectations about organizational change. What drives their surprising success, and how do they manage to outperform seasoned veterans in such a competitive landscape? The answers might reshape your understanding of leadership in professional football.
Key Takeaways
- Rookie NFL head coaches improve team win totals by an average of 2.0, with 26 out of 40 coaches leading teams to better records.
- First-time coaches exhibit a 41.7% playoff likelihood and a .447 winning percentage, demonstrating significant potential for immediate team transformation.
- According to The 33rd Team, 68% of recent head coach hires were first-time NFL head coaches, signaling a league-wide trend valuing fresh perspectives and adaptability.
- Teams scoring under 18 PPG often experience dramatic improvements, with new coaches potentially generating up to 5.3 additional wins.
- Successful coaching trajectories show significant performance growth, with win rates increasing from 31.39% to 50.86% over three consecutive seasons.
First-Year Performance Metrics
The challenge of first-year NFL head coaches reveals a nuanced landscape of performance and potential.
When you look at the data, rookie coaches typically improve their team's win total by an average of 2.0 wins, with 26 out of 40 coaches leading teams to better records.
Your chances of success are even higher if your team previously scored less than 18 points per game, where improvements average 5.3 wins.
Notably, first-year head coaches are 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs compared to experienced coaches with new teams.
The point differential also plays an essential role, with teams outscored by 7.5 PPG showing remarkable resilience, consistently improving in their inaugural season under new leadership.
Defensive strategy can significantly influence a rookie head coach's first-year performance and team turnaround.
Historical Coaching Trends
Throughout NFL history, coaching trends have revealed fascinating patterns of success, longevity, and organizational decision-making. Veterans who struggle, winning three or fewer games, face a 75% likelihood of termination, while first-year coaches receive more organizational patience.
You'll notice that continuous improvement defines successful coaching trajectories, with win rates progressively increasing from 31.39% to 50.86% over three seasons.
The landscape increasingly favors younger, innovative coaches, with the average hire being 46.5 years old and bringing 19.5 years of diverse organizational experience.
Remarkably, 68% of recent head coach hires were first-time NFL head coaches, signaling a shift towards fresh perspectives and dynamic leadership strategies. This trend suggests organizations value potential and adaptability over traditional coaching pedigrees.
Scoring and Statistical Improvements
Examining first-time NFL head coaches reveals compelling scoring dynamics that reshape team performance. Indeed, detailed NFL game prop analysis often underscores how these new coaches drive significant offensive transformations, with Sean McVay’s Rams setting a benchmark by improving 15.9 points per game in 2017. Teams scoring under 18 PPG previously have seen dramatic turnarounds, averaging 5.3 additional wins under fresh leadership.
The statistical landscape shows more than just offensive shifts. Defensive improvements—like Ben McAdoo’s Giants reducing points allowed by 9.8 PPG in 2016—demonstrate the extensive impact new coaches can have. By focusing on key metrics like point margin, scoring, and turnover rates, first-time head coaches can rapidly elevate their team’s competitive profile and set the stage for sustained success.
Betting and Game Strategies
Five essential betting dynamics emerge when analyzing first-time NFL head coaches’ strategic landscape. You’ll want to recognize that rookie HCs have a challenging 41.7% playoff likelihood, with a .447 overall winning percentage. When betting at your favorite online sportsbook, focus on their early-season unpredictability, where opponents might struggle to prepare against unfamiliar strategies.
Your best approach involves careful contextual analysis. Look beyond raw statistics, studying individual matchups, coaching styles, and game-planning nuances. West coast teams traveling east present unique opportunities, but you’ll need to dig deeper than surface-level trends. Remember that while rookie HCs often improve point differentials and win totals, they’re statistically more likely to lose than win.
Your betting success hinges on understanding these complex dynamics and avoiding knee-jerk reactions to isolated data points.
Long-Term Coaching Sustainability
While the NFL's coaching landscape has become increasingly volatile, long-term sustainability remains a critical factor in team success.
You'll notice that teams like the Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs demonstrate how consistent leadership can drive organizational stability. The data shows that frequent coaching changes often fail to address systemic issues and can lead to organizational instability.
Your understanding of coaching tenure should recognize that teams with coaches who stay 10+ years typically have higher winning percentages. The constant player turnover due to free agency makes building a cohesive roster challenging, but maintaining coaching continuity can provide the strategic consistency needed to overcome these obstacles.
Your team's success might hinge on resisting the temptation of quick, reactive coaching changes.
The Power of Analytics in Football
You've witnessed the transformative power of fresh NFL coaching talent - like a spark igniting a dormant engine. First-time coaches aren't just replacements; they're strategic revolutionaries who can turn struggling teams into competitive powerhouses. With data-driven approaches and innovative game plans, these coaches aren't just changing scores - they're rewriting franchise narratives and proving that new leadership can breathe life into any organization.
February 5th, 2025
American football is the ultimate team game where dozens of players contribute to each win. That doesn’t diminish the value of individual greatness, which is why the best professional league in the world hands out the MVP award to the most outstanding player. Every year, there is a discussion about the most deserving candidates and this season is no exception – while there is a clear group of frontrunners to win 2025 NFL MVP, the decision is anything but easy and predicting the winner is still a bit tricky.
Let’s take a closer look at the four players that are still considered to have a realistic chance to win the award.
1. Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)
Allen is widely expected to pick up his first MVP award after a truly dominant season for the resurgent Bills team. With an impressive 13-4 record in the regular season, Allen helmed one of the most fearsome offenses in the league and contributed both in the passing and the running game. His statistics are very solid but not incredible, as Allen had 26 touchdown passes versus just 6 interceptions, and gained a total of 3549 passing yards with a passer rating of 101.4. He added another 500 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, proving his value as a dual threat, leader on the field, and the main decision maker in Buffalo’s offensive unit. MVP voters like to reward winning quarterbacks and there seems to be a consensus that Allen did just enough this year to deserve the highest accolade.
2. Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
Another dual threat quarterback is seen as the biggest rival to Allen, and with good reason too. Two-time MVP winner Lamar Jackson had a very fine season for a Baltimore team that is built around his uncompromising play. He piloted the Ravens through a season that started poorly and quickly righted the ship to sail to another first-place finish in AFC North. The statistical case for Jackson is quite strong, as he threw for 4,172 yards and had a passer rating of 119.6, while also rushing for more than 900 yards. His 41 passing touchdowns were second in the NFL this season, and he also scored 4 rushing touchdowns. Jackson was very responsible with the ball and allowed only 4 interceptions in 17 games, although he was sacked 23 times. In the eyes of some MVP voters, this kind of production is impossible to ignore when deciding about the 2025 winner.
3. Saquon Barkley (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
Long-time NFL fans are aware that no running back has won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson famously did it in 2012, but this year there is a completely legitimate candidate to reverse this trend. Saquon Barkley joined the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason and wasted no time rewriting the history books. He became just the ninth player ever to rush for at least 2000 yards in a season, and he did it in 16 games. Barkley had the best rushing average of his career with 5.8 yards and scored 13 rushing touchdowns, with just 6 fumbles. He also demonstrated some versatility with 278 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, although this is a decrease compared to his previous seasons with the New York Giants. His season was definitely one for the ages, but it’s not clear if that will suffice to crown him as the Most Valuable Player.
4. Joe Burrow (QB, Cincinnati Bengals)
While Burrow had a very successful season by all parameters, his MVP chances seem to be slipping according to most sportsbooks like WoomBet that offer NFL MVP betting. Despite leading the league in total passing yards with 4,918 and passing touchdowns with 43 with a decent passer rating of 108.5 and only 9 interceptions, Burrow finds himself as an underdog in the race largely due to poor team results. The Bengals finished the season with a disappointing 9-8 record, good only for 3rd place in their division and not good enough for a wildcard slot in the playoffs. It’s rare for a player from a middling team to claim the MVP award, so despite his statistical dominance this season Burrow might have to wait for another opportunity to add the centerpiece to his growing trophy case.
February 5th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
After last season’s head coaching searches, we published our initial ranking of how we felt each team did during the latest round of hiring. With their first season under the belt, it’s time to revisit how each coach did in their first season with their new franchise.
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New Ranking (Last Years Ranking):
- Dan Quinn (4th)
- Jim Harbaugh (1st)
- Mike Macdonald (5th)
- Raheem Morris (8th)
- Dave Canales (6th)
- Brian Callahan (2nd)
- T - Antonio Pierce / Jerod Mayo (3rd and 7th)
#1 Dan Quinn:
I think it’s fair to say that no team is happier with their new head coach than the Washington Commanders are with their new head coach Dan Quinn. We ranked Quinn fourth entering the season, but his inaugural season in Washington was a major success. The team’s twelve wins was the most since their 1991 Super Bowl season, and the eight win improvement over 2023 was the most of any other new coach.
The team is well positioned for the future as well. The defense made significant strides after being ranked 32nd in both yards and points allowed, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was sensational and the front-runner for the offensive rookie of the year award. The last time the team had a Top-5 offense, they were led by another rookie quarterback sensation (RGIII). Hopefully Daniels can remain healthy as he looks to build on his rookie year.
#2 Jim Harbaugh:
Before the season, we ranked Harbaugh as the best coaching hire of the offseason, and he lived up to expectations. Successful every stop on his coaching journey, we fully expected that to continue with the Chargers. Leading the team to an 11-win season, their most since 2018, and a wildcard appearance, the team wasn’t quite able to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs for the divisional title.
Before the season, we wrote that new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter had a major task on his plate - leading the defensive charge against the Chief - and he surpassed expectations. Holding the Chiefs to an average of 18 points in their two meetings, the Chargers posted the best scoring defense in the league. The stout defenses will need to continue, because the emergence of Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix gives two potentially high-powered offenses the Chargers will have to contend with each season.
#3 Mike Macdonald:
Macdonald showed a lot of promise for the Seahawks in his first season as a head coach, but he had some big shoes to fill after replacing Pete Carroll in the organization. While the offense stayed around the middle of the pack across the league, Macdonald was able to bring a new focus on the defense that saw it improve from 25th in points to 11th.
Before the season, we wrote about the importance of the offensive coordinator for a coach like Macdonald, and let’s just say his first pick did not pan out. After only a single season, the team fired Ryan Grubb. He was quickly replaced by Klint Kubiak, who was the Saints offensive coordinator last season. One positive for Kubiak compared to Grubb - at least he has been an NFL coordinator before. The downside? Those results aren’t what you would exactly want to stake your job on.
#4 Raheem Morris:
Possibly the biggest surprise on our list - Raheem Morris comes in at number four on the re-ranked list. After an initial three-season run as the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we did not expect very much from this hiring. While the results were only an 8-9 season, that was at least a mild improvement over 2023’s 7-10 season.
Most surprising to us was the offensive output from the Falcons. In the preseason article, we talked about how the new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson could be a great hire after spending years in Los Angeles with the Rams. This hiring could be the start of something good for the Falcons, who put up more yards per game than any other team with a new coach. While there was some offseason confusion about the quarterback position - first signing Kirk Cousins to a large multi-year contract, then trading up in the draft to nab Michael Penix Jr., - the team eventually turned to the rookie to close out the season. A full offseason of reps will help Penix realize his potential if the team moves beyond Cousins.
#5 Dave Canales:
Canales probably was hired into the worst situation of any coach on this list. The Panthers were the worst team in 2023 after drafting Bryce Young first overall, and despite the poor season, they had already traded away the first overall pick, so the team had to watch as the Bears drafted first overall. While Canales was hired as an offensive mind, it took a while for the team to hit their stride. Young was benched early in the season, but came back and showed quite a bit of promise by the end of the season.
In fact, the entire team showed serious growth as the season continued. After a 1-7 start to the season, the team finished on a 4-5 stretch. After their bye week, the offense showed a spark, improving from an average of 281 YPG, up to 323 YPG. Additionally, the team averaged eight more points a game after the bye week. If the performance after the bye week can continue into Canales second year as a head coach, they may be looking to compete for a division title in two years.
#6 Brian Callahan Possibly no coach disappointed more on this list than Callahan. Originally ranked second going into the season, we had expected great things from the new Titans coach. One of the first moves of the offseason was hiring his dad and longtime offensive line coach, Bill Callahan, as an assistant coach. Considered one of the greatest offensive line coaches in the game, the Titans were tied for the third-most sacks allowed all season with 52. Pressure like that gave second-year quarterback Will Levis no time to improve on his rookie year.
Callahan didn’t waste any time in the offseason to make the changes he felt were necessary. The Titans have already shaken up the coaching staff, firing special teams coordinator Colt Anderson and letting several other assistants’ contracts expire. They moved fast to bring in long-time special teams coordinator John Fassel, new defensive passing game coordinator Tony Oden, and promote Luke Stocker to tight ends coach. Teams aren’t typically patient, so Callahan will need to show major improvement in 2025 to retain his job beyond next season.
T - #7 Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo
Coming in at the bottom of the list is Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo, tied for last place since the team felt one season was enough. Both the Raiders and the Patriots moved on and cut their losses quickly. In fact, in the case of Pierce, it happened midseason - he won more games with them last season as an interim head coach than this year as their full time head coach. We felt last year the Pierce hiring was strong, he had a lot of buy-in from the locker room and seemed to turn them around toward the end of the season as an interim. We missed the mark on that prediction.
However, with Mayo we did feel that it was a lackluster hiring, rating him seventh overall on the list. After replacing Bill Belichick, there were big shoes to fill. Unfortunately, Mayo was not the right person for the job as the team seemed to regress across the board. It was an opportunity to move beyond the aura of Belichick, but owner Robert Kraft decided that one season was enough.
February 3rd, 2025
By Stephen Juza
Last week, the New England Patriots announced the hiring of Mike Vrabel as their new head coach. Vrabel returns to the Patriots as their head coach after excelling for the team as a linebacker and sneaky red zone receiving option. One of the top coaching candidates this offseason, the Patriots locked him up as the first vacancy filled across the league, which will undoubtedly give their sports betting odds a boost ahead of the start of next season. Moving fast is often necessary for a team to get their pick. With only a few vacancies each year, teams need to move quickly if they have someone in mind.
However, after last season, Patriots fans may be concerned that they have remained too entrenched in the Bill Belichick coaching tree. After all, it seems like Belichick’s style started to fall flat with the team toward the end of his 24 seasons as their head coach, and the team moved on to one of his top assistants, Jerod Mayo.
The team continued to struggle under Mayo’s sole season at the helm. They struggled top-to-bottom, and the team moved on after one season. Patriots fans may be concerned about another coach that is so close to the “Patriot Way” that Belichick would espouse. While Vrabel represents a familiar face for owner Robert Kraft, there are a lot of reasons why the hiring of Vrabel should be viewed with optimism.
Distance from the Belichick Coaching Tree
There’s certainly a lot that’s been written about the lack of success from Belichick’s coaching tree. While it’s not a stain on his accomplishments, you would be hard-pressed to find much success through any of the branches. Realistically, only two of his eleven assistants have gone on to have any semblance of success as a head coach, and the most notable of that list (Nick Saban) only accomplished that success in college football, not the NFL. The other coach, Bill O'Brien, led the Houston Texans to several division titles during his seven years in Houston.
The other nine? Only a few winning seasons between them. In fact, all eleven coaches combined for a record of 224-328-2. Teams kept hiring his assistants, hoping to replicate the success in New England, but it never transpired.
Although Vrabel was a key piece of the Patriots dynasty, he was eventually traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, where he finished his playing career. While there, he played under new systems and coaches, giving him more broad exposure to other coaching styles. Additionally, while he entered coaching immediately after retiring, he returned to college football for several years.
Once he broke back into the NFL, it wasn’t with Belichick, but O’Brien who gave him his shot. In the midst of a successful run for the Texans, Vrabel became the head coach for the Tennessee Titans where he had a moderately successful run - three playoff appearances in six seasons, and one appearance in the AFC Championship game.
All told, in his two decades since he was drafted, less than half was with Belichick. Contrast this with Mayo who only played for or coached under Belichick. He will be bringing new perspectives, and new assistants, to the Patriots.
Prior Success as a Head Coach
While prior success does not always indicate future success, it is always reassuring when the new head coach can walk-the-walk of a successful franchise. It feels like it brings a sense of legitimacy and swagger to the locker room. It can be great to recruit free agents. It can bring hope to the fan base.
Enter Vrabel. Vrabel’s Titans won back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1960-1962 when the then-Houston Oilers won their division in the AFL in three consecutive seasons. If fans are concerned about staying within the “Patriots Way”, just know that none of the other coaches in Belichick’s coaching tree had the level of success in their first job (including Belichick himself).
Overall, Vrabel had success with the Titans, and was a highly sought after coaching prospect the last two years. He has had to build a successful program from scratch, and he should be able to do it again for the Patriots in the coming years.
January 27th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
The Cowboys announced last week that their new head coach for the 2025 season is going to be Brian Schottenheimer. While owner Jerry Jones has consistently run the franchise to the beat of his own drum, there are plenty of times where Cowboys fans are left wondering, “What are the Cowboy’s thinking?!?”
Cowboys fans looking for online gambling with 1000 free spins no deposit can play online while their team takes shape as the newly-promoted Schottenheimer forms his coaching staff. All the while wondering, “What is going on in Dallas?”
Cowboys’ Approach to Head Coaches
Before we dive into why Schottenheimer was an unusual pick, let’s cover how the Cowboys have an unusual approach to head coaches. For 31 other teams across the NFL, coaches end their employment two ways - they either retire, or they are fired. It doesn’t matter if you are a coaching legend like Bill Belichick, poor performance results in a firing.
Knowing this, it’s incredibly unusual for a head coach to enter the last year of his contract. It’s almost a given that a contract extension will come their way with a year to go. However, for the Cowboys, they have simply let their last two head coaches walk away as their contract ended. Jason Garrett frustrated Dallas fans throughout his tenure for how exceedingly mediocre the Cowboys were. Four of his nine seasons at the helm were 8-8, with only making the playoffs three times during his run.
McCarthy was a mild improvement, but still not what Jones is after. McCarthy led the team to three consecutive 12-win seasons, but only a single playoff win. Despite a high-powered offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott, the team could never get it done when it mattered. At the conclusion of the season, McCarthy and Dallas were trying to work out a new contract, but could not come to an agreement.
Unfortunately for Cowboys’ fans, all of this took place after some of the top coaching candidates already started joining their new teams, leading the Cowboys to miss out on some prized candidates. Fans may feel that the team could have landed a better coach had Jones had a better vision. He even acknowledged that Schotty is a “risky” hire in his introductory press conference. So what makes him so risky?
Schottenheimer as a Risky Hire
Schottenheimer has been around the game for a very long time. Twenty five years in the league as a coach, fourteen years as a coordinator, and countless more around the game as the son of Marty Schottenheimer. With that long track record, you have to wonder why such an experienced coordinator has never gotten his shot at the top job.
The results don’t follow him. Only five of his fourteen seasons at the helm did the team rank in the top-10 in points scored. One season in Dallas, one season with the Jets, and three with the Seahawks. While he coached on teams with impressive defenses giving him shorter fields frequently, his offense couldn’t get the job done.
He also doesn’t exactly have a long track record of developing offensive playmakers under his tenure. Arguably the only season-award winner he has coached is Chad Pennington to the 2006 Comeback Player of the Year. No MVPs, no offensive players of the year, no rookies of the year. It certainly feels like the main reason why Jones wanted Schottenheimer was for the continuity, and his four year contract lines up with Prescott’s and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. After four years, it could be easier to hit the reset button if Jones is thinking like that.
25 years in the league, and stunning mediocrity. Maybe that’s why he’s a fit for the Cowboys.