February 3rd, 2025
By Stephen Juza
Last week, the New England Patriots announced the hiring of Mike Vrabel as their new head coach. Vrabel returns to the Patriots as their head coach after excelling for the team as a linebacker and sneaky red zone receiving option. One of the top coaching candidates this offseason, the Patriots locked him up as the first vacancy filled across the league, which will undoubtedly give their sports betting odds a boost ahead of the start of next season. Moving fast is often necessary for a team to get their pick. With only a few vacancies each year, teams need to move quickly if they have someone in mind.
However, after last season, Patriots fans may be concerned that they have remained too entrenched in the Bill Belichick coaching tree. After all, it seems like Belichick’s style started to fall flat with the team toward the end of his 24 seasons as their head coach, and the team moved on to one of his top assistants, Jerod Mayo.
The team continued to struggle under Mayo’s sole season at the helm. They struggled top-to-bottom, and the team moved on after one season. Patriots fans may be concerned about another coach that is so close to the “Patriot Way” that Belichick would espouse. While Vrabel represents a familiar face for owner Robert Kraft, there are a lot of reasons why the hiring of Vrabel should be viewed with optimism.
Distance from the Belichick Coaching Tree
There’s certainly a lot that’s been written about the lack of success from Belichick’s coaching tree. While it’s not a stain on his accomplishments, you would be hard-pressed to find much success through any of the branches. Realistically, only two of his eleven assistants have gone on to have any semblance of success as a head coach, and the most notable of that list (Nick Saban) only accomplished that success in college football, not the NFL. The other coach, Bill O'Brien, led the Houston Texans to several division titles during his seven years in Houston.
The other nine? Only a few winning seasons between them. In fact, all eleven coaches combined for a record of 224-328-2. Teams kept hiring his assistants, hoping to replicate the success in New England, but it never transpired.
Although Vrabel was a key piece of the Patriots dynasty, he was eventually traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, where he finished his playing career. While there, he played under new systems and coaches, giving him more broad exposure to other coaching styles. Additionally, while he entered coaching immediately after retiring, he returned to college football for several years.
Once he broke back into the NFL, it wasn’t with Belichick, but O’Brien who gave him his shot. In the midst of a successful run for the Texans, Vrabel became the head coach for the Tennessee Titans where he had a moderately successful run - three playoff appearances in six seasons, and one appearance in the AFC Championship game.
All told, in his two decades since he was drafted, less than half was with Belichick. Contrast this with Mayo who only played for or coached under Belichick. He will be bringing new perspectives, and new assistants, to the Patriots.
Prior Success as a Head Coach
While prior success does not always indicate future success, it is always reassuring when the new head coach can walk-the-walk of a successful franchise. It feels like it brings a sense of legitimacy and swagger to the locker room. It can be great to recruit free agents. It can bring hope to the fan base.
Enter Vrabel. Vrabel’s Titans won back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1960-1962 when the then-Houston Oilers won their division in the AFL in three consecutive seasons. If fans are concerned about staying within the “Patriots Way”, just know that none of the other coaches in Belichick’s coaching tree had the level of success in their first job (including Belichick himself).
Overall, Vrabel had success with the Titans, and was a highly sought after coaching prospect the last two years. He has had to build a successful program from scratch, and he should be able to do it again for the Patriots in the coming years.