Pro Football History.com Blog

Early Front Runners for Coach of the Year

By Stephen Juza

March 12th, 2024

As the league opens the new season with free agency this week, all eyes turn toward the 2024 season. Key players are already on the move in free agency as teams aim to address gaps in their rosters before the upcoming draft next month. As coaches around the league start to strategize for the 2024 season, we look today at the most likely candidates for the Coach of the Year award.

Each new signing or departure has the potential to impact the online betting odds for each coach vying for the award. While losing Kirk Cousins in free agency may hurt the Vikings next year, if they can replace him and show improvement next year, Kevin O'Connell will be in advantageous position to win the award. However, if they falter from last year’s 7-10 record, O’Connell may be looking for work next offseason.

When considering the Coach of the Year, it is rarely given to the best coach in the game. For example, Andy Reid, one of the greatest coaches of the last 30 years, has only won the award once in his career.

While new coaches make up about 20-25% of the league each season, they have won four of the last ten COTY awards. Voters love to focus on a ‘narrative’, and a new coach coming in to lead a team to the playoffs is always a compelling story.

Even if it is not a new coach, coaches need to have a major improvement from the prior season. Since 2014, in the year preceding the COTY win, the teams averaged a 7-9 record - right on the cusp of the playoffs but needing just a little more push. The following year, to secure the award, the average COTY winner led his team to five more wins from the prior season, with the largest turnaround at nine wins for Ron Rivera’s COTY win in 2015 when he led the Panthers to a Super Bowl berth.

So, who are the three coaches to look out for next year?

#1 - Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh will make a lot of noise next season. Returning to the NFL after winning the NCAA championship at his alma mater, Michigan, Harbaugh took one of the prime positions in the league. While the Chargers have some key positions filled with potential stars, his coaching will help them with the push needed to improve on last year’s 5-12 finish. It is not rare that one team will go worst-to-first in their division, and with a little luck, the Chargers can achieve that this year.

With a new coach coming in, if he manages to topple the Kansas City Chiefs’ reign in the AFC West, expect Harbaugh to win his first coach of the year award.

#2 - Sean Payton, Denver Broncos

Staying within the AFC West, another strong candidate for the Coach of the Year award is Sean Payton. After returning to coaching after a brief retirement, the Broncos had extremely high expectations with Payton last year. They all fell flat. An 8-9 finish, with a quarterback debacle that led to Russell Wilson’s release last week was not what the team had in mind when they hired the former Super Bowl winner. Poor results in 2023 only lead to increased pressure in 2024, and the job is not any easier this season.

Entering free agency, the team’s top priority is to replace Wilson, and Payton has had major success at working with quarterbacks throughout his tenure in the league. Spinning yarn into gold this season and replacing the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West will put Payton’s name on his second COTY award.

#3 - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

The last coach to keep an eye on in 2024 is Shane Steichen. The Colts were able to surprise people last year with a strong 9-8 finish to the season, good for a second-place finish behind 10-7 Houston. However, the season encountered early struggles when rookie starting quarterback Anthony Richardson went down with a season ending injury in the fifth game of the season. While his rookie season was brief, they were signs of the explosive potential he possesses - Richardson ranked first in the league in explosive plays before he went down injured.

While backup quarterback Garner Minshew II left the team in free agency, Richardson’s injury rehab is progressing as expected and began throwing the ball last month. With a healthy Richardson, and enough improvement from the rest of the team to take the division title, Steichen could win his first COTY award of his career next February.

Ranking the 2024 Head Coaching Hires

By Stephen Juza

March 8th, 2024

As teams around the league finalize their coaching staffs, our latest blog post looks at the eight new head coaching hires for the 2024 season. With a mixture of new head coaches and experienced head coaches, some offensive minds, and some defensive minds, we take a quick look at how we think the coach will do in the coming years. We look not just at their prior book of work, but also their ability to hire critical roles for their coaching staff.

With such a critical hire, it can make-or-break a team’s success for years to come, and Super Bowl betting odds constantly adjust to reflect how people feel the team will fare in the upcoming season. The right coach can transform a team from forgotten to Super Bowl contender in a single offseason. So, who is positioning their new team the best?

#1 Jim Harbaugh: Prior Head Coaching Record: 44-19-1 (5-3 in the Playoffs)

Arguably the crown jewel of the 2024 coaching carousel was Jim Harbaugh. Fresh off a college National Championship at his alma mater (Michigan), he decided now is the right time to jump back into the NFL. After taking several interviews over the last few years, 2024 Harbaugh will return to the NFL sideline, bringing his strong track-record of success as a coach and a quarterback-mentor. He brings a successful pedigree (winner of 2011’s Coach of the Year) and reconnects with his long-time offensive coordinator Greg Roman to help bring the Los Angeles Chargers to the top of the AFC West.

One major roadblock to the Chargers’ hopes of winning the division is the current defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs. Tasked with the tall order of slowing down the high-powered Chiefs offense, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, is new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who hasn’t been a defensive coordinator at the NFL level before. While he led the defense to slow down Heisman runner-up Michael Penix, Jr., Mahomes will represent a significantly more difficult challenge.

#2 Brian Callahan: Zac Taylor Coaching Tree (Five Seasons)

Former Bengals offensive coordinator is next on our list after he joined the Tennessee Titans this offseason. Callahan is the first coach from the Zac Taylor coaching tree to be hired as a head coach, and all eyes in Nashville will be on Callahan to bring an offensive coaching pedigree that will hopefully help mold their quarterback of the future, Will Levis.

Levis sees similarities between himself and Callahan’s last quarterback, Joe Burrow. However, Callahan has experience around many great quarterbacks, and the Titans should be excited about what that experience can yield for their offense. One of the critical coaching hires he made for his inaugural coaching staff was getting his father, Bill Callahan, as the team’s offensive line coach. Bill has long been considered one of the greatest OL coaches in the league, and having his talents to help take pressure off the young quarterback will be key moving forward.

If Brian is successful in Tennessee, the AFC South may become the most exciting and competitive division in the NFL for the foreseeable future.

#3 Antonio Pierce: Interim record: 5-4

Coming in third of our ranking is former interim head coach Antonio Pierce, promoted to the top job after a successful audition for the top job in 2023. After stepping in for the disastrous Josh McDaniels-tenure, the Las Vegas Raiders were able to salvage the 2023 season with an 8-9 record and a second-place finish in the AFC West.

Pierce was a big hit with the players on the Raiders, with several like Davante Adams publicly advocating for the job to be Pierce’s. Pierce comes in with a lot more playing background than he does coaching background. Pierce played nine seasons in the NFL and only has two years of NFL coaching experience. However, experienced NFL players have recently made the jump to NFL head coaches rather quickly, with great success. Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans are two examples of those who were hired as head coaches after a few seasons as assistant coaches.

While Pierce may be a great coach, he and the Raiders will struggle in a division with the Chiefs (and now potentially the Chargers).

#4 Dan Quinn: Prior Head Coaching Record: 43-42 (3-2 in the Playoffs)

Taking the fourth spot in our ranking is the new Washington Commanders’ head coach, and former Falcons head coach, Dan Quinn. Quinn led the Falcons between 2015 and 2020, before he was let go in the middle of the season. While his Falcons experienced some successful years, two playoff berths in his first three seasons and a Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, it was a slow downward slide for the Falcons from his peak. After going 11-5 in his second season, each year was slightly worse than the prior, until the team opened up 2020 with an 0-5 record -- and Quinn’s firing.

However, since his Falcons days, he has been the defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. After three consecutive 12-5 records, Quinn is ready for his second shot at the top job. Quinn represents a “Mike” - type rebound head coach: Winning record in their first stint, with an assistant role between head coaching gigs. These coaches frequently regress in their second head coaching role, and in a tough NFC East, expect the same to happen with Quinn.

#5 Mike Macdonald: John Harbaugh Coaching Tree (Nine Seasons)

Fifth on our list is former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, taking over the top job for the Seattle Seahawks. After spending the first nine seasons of his coaching career under John Harbaugh, Macdonald had several opportunities for head coaching positions this offseason. Defensive coaches have generally had success as head coaches coming from the Harbaugh coaching tree, so that bodes well for Macdonald.

Coming from a defensive background though, his initial offensive coordinator is an important hire. His pick, former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, has no NFL experience and only two seasons at a Power-5 conference. However, during his two seasons at Washington, he coached Heisman runner-up quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. en route to a national championship berth.

A skilled offensive coordinator to help set the offensive strategy has been the undoing of several coaches from the Harbaugh Tree, such as Rex Ryan and Chuck Pagano. The Seahawks’ Macdonald can be the coach to break through.

#6 Dave Canales: Pete Carroll Coaching Tree (Thirteen Seasons)

From the coach replacing Pete Carroll, to the fourth coach from Pete Carroll’s coaching tree to become a head coach, our sixth entry in our list is new Carolina Panthers coach Dave Canales. After following Carroll to the NFL in 2010, Canales spent the next thirteen years of his career working in various roles for the Seahawks before finally getting his shot as an offensive coordinator last year for the Buccaneers.

Coaching changes can be crucial for young quarterbacks, and Canales’ top goal for his first season will be to help Bryce Young take a similar leap to Trevor Lawrence in his second season. The Panthers are on a streak of six consecutive sub-.500 seasons, and last year posted the lowest average offensive yards per game in the league. Canales offensive experience could be crucial for the team to turn it around.

#7 Jerod Mayo: Bill Belichick Coaching Tree (Five years as a coach)

Seventh on our list is the new New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo. No one likes being ‘the guy’ who follows a great, and Mayo is in a tough spot. Anyone following the greatest coach ever would have difficulty bringing the changes necessary. The Patriots are just a few years removed from the greatest sports dynasty ever, but the years since their last Super Bowl victory have been tough for the fan base’s high expectations. While Mayo has been considered a future head coach for a few years, I’m not envious of the task ahead of him. Belichick is the only coach he ever played for, or coached for, in the NFL.

While Mayo knows defense and comes from one of the greatest defensive masterminds to coach in the NFL, this is a great opportunity to shake up the Patriots organization. Draft rumors have the Patriots looking at a quarterback in the first round, and should they move on from Mac Jones, they have a great new offensive coordinator in place. Alex Van Pelt, who spent last season with the Browns, has a great history of working with quarterbacks of a wide range of abilities. If they take a quarterback in the first round, it will be a great way to help the Patriots move beyond the Belichick era.

#8 Raheem Morris: Head Coaching Record: 21-38 (0-0 in the Playoffs)

Coming in last in our 2024 ranking is new Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris. After a poor first attempt as a head coach for the Buccaneers, Morris spent the next decade working his way back up the coaching ranks from a position coach to coordinator. And while he was moderately successful during his short tenure as an interim head coach for the Falcons in 2020, it’s not hard to improve on the 0-5 start to the season that led to Quinn’s firing.

After spending his last several years as the defensive coordinator for the Rams, he was hired by the Falcons after shifting focus away from hiring Belichick. During his time in LA, the team won one Super Bowl (2021), his second of his assistant coaching career. Among the other coaches coming from LA is new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, a potentially great hire who will bring the offensive mind and scheme that Morris can hope to win with.

Andy Reid’s Success with the Kansas City Chiefs

By Stephen Juza

February 16th, 2024

With the Super Bowl now in the books, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has led his team to their third Super Bowl victory of the last five years. Reid’s third championship puts him in rare company within NFL history. Since the inception of the Super Bowl era, only Bill Belichick and Chuck Noll have won more Super Bowls than Reid. While success is not guaranteed in the NFL, the Chiefs are as well positioned as any prior dynasty to continue their run.

While the NFL season is over, fans may be looking for offseason entertainment. Many may turn to playing poker online with states relaxing gambling laws, some may tune in to watch the newly merged spring football league, or begin following the constant stream of NFL draft news on what their team can do to improve in 2024.

2023 Season

In a challenging season that witnessed the first road divisional loss of the Patrick Mahomes/Reid era, the Chiefs managed to pull it all together in time for the playoffs. Throughout the playoff run, the Chiefs faced a more challenging road than the past - having to win the conference on the road. Despite the road challenge in Buffalo, the Chiefs were able to prevail over the Buffalo Bills yet again.

The uphill battle continued through the Super Bowl. During the game, the team quickly found itself in a deficit against the San Francisco 49ers, trailing 10-0 in the first half. However, with second half adjustments, the Chiefs came out strong in the third quarter, taking their first lead toward the end of the third quarter on a touchdown reception by Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Mecole Hardman’s game-winning touchdown reception in overtime clinched Reid’s latest championship and elevated the Chiefs to one of the greatest sport dynasties of all time. While he is getting up there in age (he will be sixty-six next month), he is at the pinnacle of his coaching game.

With Mahomes at quarterback, the most critical position is filled for as long as Reid wants to coach. However, questions will soon arise regarding other positions on the team.

Chiefs Offense

While Mahomes will provide stability, his security blanket since he came into the league has been tight end Travis Kelce. Despite his remarkable durability throughout his career, never missing more than two games in a season since becoming a starter, this season might signal the beginning of a downward trend. He will turn thirty-five next season. He posted his fewest receiving yards since 2015 and his fewest touchdowns since 2019. However, he is still the clutch, go-to person for the Chiefs when they need a pivotal reception.

With all the mishaps with the Chiefs wide receiver core this season, Kelce was a key person for the team. If the Chiefs cannot upgrade their receiving weapons this offseason, they may not be able to withstand another year of decline for Kelce.

While the Chiefs won two Super Bowls after trading away the best wide receiver in the league (Tyreek Hill), the struggles may be too much for Mahomes to overcome next year unless they get more receiving threats.

Chiefs Defense

General manager Brett Veach will have a tough decision to make this offseason: re-sign either defensive tackle Chris Jones or cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to a big free agent contract.

Chris Jones has been as crucial to the defense over the years as Mahomes has been to the offense. Jones is coming off his fourth consecutive All-Pro season and will be looking for a major raise. The average salary of the top defensive tackles is north of $22 million, and Jones has proven to be in that company.

Meanwhile, Sneed is finishing his rookie contract and has made crucial plays at pivotal moments along this playoff run, such as forcing a pivotal fumble at the one-yard line against the Ravens to prevent a touchdown. He was a crucial player for the fourth-ranked passing defense in the league.

Reid’s Legacy

Five years ago, it seemed as if Belichick was the coach most likely to break Don Shula's wins record. However, since then, Belichick posted his worst seasons ever in his career, leading to his firing by the Patriots this offseason. Meanwhile, Reid has averaged more than twelve wins a season since Mahomes has taken over at quarterback.

While it is still a longshot for Reid to break the record, he sits seventy away from Shula. At his Mahomes-rate, he would need six more seasons to break the record. Not many coaches continue into their seventies, putting the threshold possibly out of reach for Reid. However, if the Chiefs can maintain their franchise icons or replenish playmakers through the draft, Reid might find that he is enjoying too much success and fun in winning games to consider retirement.

What Will 2024-25 Look Like for the Chargers After Jim Harbaugh’s Appointment?

February 7th, 2023

After eight years at the helm of NCAA giants, Michigan Wolverines, Jim Harbaugh has taken the bold move to leave college football and return to the spotlight of the NFL. The 60-year-old has signed a five-year contract to take charge as the new head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, a team he played for during the 1999-2000 NFL season.

Harbaugh’s last foray into NFL coaching came with the San Francisco 49ers. He steered the 49ers to Super Bowl XLVII, where they would lose to the Baltimore Ravens, coincidentally coached by his elder brother, John Harbaugh. After taking a year out when leaving the 49ers, Harbaugh returned to coaching in the NCAA with Michigan, winning the College Football Playoff National Championship in January. He’d enjoyed success previously in the NCAA before landing his first NFL head coach role with San Francisco. Between 2004-06, he led San Diego to successive Pioneer League titles before steering Stanford to two bowl berths in four years, as well as an Orange Bowl victory in 2011.

What’s the motivation behind Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL?

When questioned about his reasons for returning to the NFL, Harbaugh admitted he had plenty of “sands left in the hourglass”, with a burning desire to have another “crack” at winning the Lombardi Trophy.

Many of the leading online sportsbooks have already priced up the 2024-25 NFL season before the current one has even concluded. Harbaugh’s Chargers are expected to be a middle-of-the-road outfit in 2024-25 if their latest future odds to win the 2024-25 Super Bowl are to be believed. LeoVegas has priced the Chargers at +2800, making them the 14th favorites to lift the Lombardi Trophy next season. This is a long-standing, licensed brand in the sports betting space, so it’s certainly one to take note of in the NFL betting markets. Canadians looking for some ideas for brands that offer iGaming platforms and sports betting functionality under one roof could also consider this operator. Its online casino is powered by 15 of the leading game suppliers in the iGaming scene.

Harbaugh arrives at a time when expectations are pretty low at the Chargers

Harbaugh assumed the head coach role of the Chargers after the team suffered one of the most embarrassing defeats in NFL history at the playoff stage. Under former head coach, Brandon Staley, the team limped into the playoffs with a .500 record and then contrived to let a 27-0 first-half advantage slip against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The team was then thrashed 63-21 days later, resulting in Staley’s swift exit, stage left.

With a 5-12 regular season record in 2023-24, the good news for Harbaugh is the only way is up. There’s very little downside and plenty of upside potential for him to work with. Harbaugh is well-known for being a great man manager – and they’ll certainly need those skills with very few new recruits expected. The Chargers are expected to be over $54 million above their salary cap for 2024-25.

The one major positive for Chargers fans is that Harbaugh brings a winning mentality to the locker room. Having won the NCAA national title with Michigan, this is a coach who knows how to foster a positive culture within a roster. After just one playoff campaign in the last three years under Staley, Harbaugh, and the Chargers’ quarterback, Justin Herbert, are now the icons fans can reunite behind in 2024-25 and beyond.

Miami Dolphins’ Have Plenty of Reasons for Optimism Ahead of 2024

January 30th, 2024

With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and Tua Tagovailoa in their midst, it’s little wonder that some pundits described the Miami Dolphins’ offensive play as some of the most entertaining they saw during the 2023-24 campaign.

Having scored 496 points during the regular season, Miami was one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL – that’s why they were expected to fare so well in the playoffs before they came unstuck against the Chiefs first up.

The NFL has long been home to franchises that are electric on offense and weak defensively, or vice versa, and it’s these teams that often fail to deliver on their promise in the postseason. It's a point that the Dolphins roster will be left to ponder over the break.

Having shipped 391 points during the regular season - only the Colts, Broncos, and Chargers conceded more in the entire AFC Conference, there's an argument that Mike McDaniel and his back office team will need to recruit wisely during the off-season to have any chance of improvement in 2024-25.

But is the picture as bad as it appears at first glance? With Jalen Ramsey (presumably) evading the injuries that dogged his campaign – plus the continued emergence of Canadian-born Jevon Holland, the Dolphins may just have the pieces to solve their defensive puzzle and make a more concerted challenge for the Super Bowl in 2025.

A Case for the Defense

Whether a show of patriotic support in favor of Holland or not, there will be plenty of interest from the Canada sports betting fraternity when it comes to backing Miami for Super Bowl LIX - they will open at around the +1200 mark, but will likely shorten as they make a big trade announcement or two over the summer.

The sportsbooks will make the key protagonists from the 2024 playoffs their favorites for 2025 too, with the 49ers (+550) likely to lead the way ahead of the Chiefs (+850) and Ravens (+950), but the stunning offensive play of the Dolphins means that they cannot be discounted.

Of course, defensive improvements will be necessary. A full season from Ramsey will be key - the three-time All-Pro selection battled a succession of knee injuries not long after undergoing surgery, but if he recuperates well over the summer and has a strong pre-season, the Dolphins can rely upon the 29-year-old to return to his previous elite level and act as their defensive lynchpin. If Ramsey is the bedrock of Miami's hopes for 2024-25, others around him in the defensive unit can up their game and ensure the Dolphins' tackling is greater than the sum of its parts.

If they can start to ship fewer points, with the offensive jewels at their disposal, McDaniel's men will surely become much more dangerous foes in playoff games - that could be the difference between them battling it out for Super Bowl LIX and not.

Thou Shalt Not Pass

With 52 solo tackles to his name, Holland is building a reputation as something of a sniper when called upon.

Together with the likes of David Long and Bradley Chubb, there’s a solidity that will need to be fostered further if Miami is to tighten up its defense and stop its opponents from crossing the whitewash with such regularity.

The challenge facing the Dolphins hierarchy is that it's well documented that they need to trim their roster to free up funds to participate in free agency, let alone more expensive trade acquisitions. That will also include the need to tie down the exceptional defensive tackle, Christian Wilkins, to a lucrative long-term deal to prevent him from being seduced by other franchises.

But if Wilkins stays and other defensive recruits are assembled, that element of the team's game should improve – allowing Holland to express himself fully, as he did with that incredible interception and 99-yard touchdown run against the Jets back in November 2023.

With three forced fumbles in his collection in 2023-24, Holland is a nuisance for opposition offenses, and with greater structure and organization around him, he and Ramsey could elevate Miami’s game to a level where they’re much more than just the Tyreek and Tua show.

If they do, the Dolphins could well become a probable, rather than a possible, for Super Bowl LIX.