Pro Football History.com Blog

2023 NFL Head Coach Trees

By Stephen Juza

July 4th, 2023

Each January and February, the coaching carousel rotates as several head coaches are fired, and new coaches are hired to replace them. Coaching trees expand with these changes, adding new branches or forming their own tree altogether. While coaching trees are often open to interpretation, let’s take a look at the current NFL coaching landscape.

Andy Reid:

Andy Reid continues to boast the largest active coaching tree in the league, with five former assistants currently leading teams. Over the years, we’ve emphasized how superb his coaching tree has been, and each year it continues to get better. It’s not just Reid’s Chiefs that dictated the path to the Super Bowl last season; four of the eight divisions last season were won by either Reid or one of his coaching protégés. Online NFL odds makers suggest that the path to the Super Bowl will again run through Reid’s tree in the coming season.

While four of the five coaches won division championships last season, Ron Rivera was the lone exception. Leading the Commanders to a last place finish in the NFC East in his third season with the team, his time could be cut short in Washington unless he turns around the team this season.

Regardless of Rivera's situation, it's evident that Reid and his coaching tree will continue to exert a significant influence in the league for years to come. Their collective impact ensures a formidable presence on the coaching landscape, shaping the future of the NFL.

Orange coaches not active head coaches

Sean McVay:

The second largest active coach tree belongs to Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay. Despite a difficult 2022 season in Los Angeles, McVay’s first losing season as a head coach, rumors of retirement swirled around the team. McVay decided to return for the 2023 season, along with key veterans Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford, as the team looks to rebound from their disappointing 5-12 season.

Turning the focus to his coaching tree, the current standard bearer is Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor. After a difficult start to his head coaching career (six wins in his first two seasons), he led the team to a Super Bowl appearance against McVay in Taylor’s third season. The Bengals followed up their AFC Championship with a second division title, the first time in team history they won the division in consecutive seasons.

The coach in the most unknown position may be Matt LaFleur. After winning 13 games in each of his first three seasons, the Packers crashed to third in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers now a New York Jet, the Packers face the challenge of reshaping their offense around first-year starter Jordan Love.

Frank Reich:

Tied for the third largest active coaching tree, Frank Reich was fired by the Colts amid his worst season in Indianapolis. Despite enduring consistent quarterback turnover throughout his five-year tenure, with a new quarterback taking the helm each season, Reich managed to lead the Colts to the playoffs in two out of his four full seasons. Reich was not out of work long - he was quickly hired by the Panthers to lead their franchise.

Reich’s coaching tree is small but growing. Nick Sirianni has shown the most promise of the three branches, leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl berth last season after a wildcard berth in 2021. In the latest offseason, another branch emerged as Jonathan Gannon, former defensive backs coach, was hired as the new head coach for the Arizona Cardinals.

Kyle Shanahan:

Kyle Shanahan leads the other third-largest coaching tree with three active branches. 2022 was a tumultuous year for the 49ers. After a slow start, the team reeled off ten consecutive wins to end the season and clinch the NFC West.

Starting quarterback Trey Lance played only two games before going on the injured reserve list. Prior starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo started ten games before he went down injured and shut down for the season. Subsequently, Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 NFL draft, came in and won his first seven starts (two in the playoffs) before hurting his elbow during the NFC Championship. He was forced to continue playing after fourth-string Josh Johnson was knocked out of the game with his own injury.

Shanahan’s tree has shown limited promise, but Robert Saleh hopes to break that trend this upcoming season. The Jets’ trade for quarterback Aaron Rodgers catapulted the team into Super Bowl contention. Meanwhile, DeMeco Ryans was hired for his first-ever head coaching job in the place where his professional career began - Houston.

Bill Belichick:

Despite his own professional success as arguably the greatest NFL coach ever, Bill Belichick's coaching tree has never made any real impact on the league. With the Patriots continued struggles, missing the playoffs two of the last three years, and fierce competition in the AFC East that may leave the Patriots looking at a last-place finish, we may not see another coach hired from his coaching tree for a while.

That said, Brian Daboll may present the best opportunity to have a successful coach come from his coaching tree. Daboll, the reigning Coach of the Year, led the Giants to only their second playoff berth in the last decade. The other active branch, Josh McDaniels, has a steep uphill climb trying to make his mark in his second head coaching stop. Coming off a 6-11 season, considerable hope is being placed that Garoppolo will be healthy and can lead the offense.

Orange coaches not active head coaches

Remaining Coaches:

Some coaches, such as Mike McCarthy, Pete Carroll, and Mike Tomlin, have simply been coaches long enough that their parent coaches have long since retired from the NFL. Despite their long, successful careers, they have few, or no, active head coaches that have spent time on their coaching staffs.

Methodology: Coaching trees are often open to interpretation, but throughout the website we automatically place any coach in the tree of a head coach up to their first head coaching opportunity. This allows coaches to be in multiple trees, without limiting them to only one coach that they spent the most time with.

Read last year's coaching tree article here.

Game Over Report: Tracking the Likelihood of NFL Coaches Getting Fired

By Stephen Juza

June 28th, 2023

The coaching hot seat is a perennial topic in the NFL, with no coach being immune to the pressure and speculation. With so much turnover, virtually no coach will escape the dreaded hot seat conversation. Even Bill Belichick, who is within striking distance of the career win record, has slowly had the calls for his job ramp up after missing the playoffs in two of the last three seasons.

With so much pressure on coaches, the constant chatter of ‘are they on the Hot Seat’ weighs with every win or loss. A particularly bad loss is immediately followed by “Is this the game that gets them fired?” A key winning streak to close the season can give a team hope that just maybe the coach is living up to the promise and deserves another season at the helm.

This season, we will debut the “Game Over Report” where each week, we will track each coach’s likelihood to be fired by the end of the season. Using a machine learning algorithm, we will assign a probability to each coach that they will be fired by the end of the season.

Who is likely to be fired?

Since 2010, an average of seven coaches have been fired each season. It’s such a common occurrence that a frequent prop bet on various online bookies is for how many coaches will be fired, which coach will be fired, and if they will be fired by the end of the season.

So what does the average fired coach look like? A coach who just led a team to a five-win (or worse) season, who was a career 40%-win percentage coach, and ended the season in the bottom third of the league in points scored and points allowed. If coaches can avoid a terrible season, quiet mediocrity is enough to skate by. Nine-win seasons are typically enough to stick around for another season, if they play nicely with the ownership group.

Which coaches have surprised the model?

While the machine learning algorithm used in the "Game Over Report" boasts a 85% accuracy rate, there have been instances where it failed to predict coaching moves accurately.

Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars – 2013 (68% chance to be fired)

Gus Bradley’s first season in Jacksonville did not inspire much hope for the future. Finishing with a 4-12 record with the worst offense and fourth-worst defense in the league (by points scored). While he survived his initial season, he eventually was fired before the conclusion of his fourth season after leading the team to a 14-48 record.

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns – 2017 (67% chance to be fired)

Hue Jackson’s lack of firing surprised many people in 2017. Not only was the team coming off an 0-16 season, the team only went 1-15 in his first season with the franchise. Despite the 1-31 record, Jackson came back for a third season, only to be fired eight games into the 2018 season.

Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers – 2014 (0% chance to be fired)

While it was initially reported that the decision to leave the 49ers was a ‘mutual’ decision, Jim Harbaugh disagreed with this statement. The model had 74 instances where a coach had 0% chance of being fired at the end of the season – Harbaugh is the only one that was fired. It’s easy to see why the model was surprised. Winning 70% of his games with the franchise, one NFC championship, and playoffs in three of his four seasons. Success that most franchises would strive for, but friction with ownership led to an earlier departure than expected from the NFL.

As the NFL season unfolds, the "Game Over Report" will provide insights into the likelihood of coaches being fired by the end of the season. While no coach can truly escape the hot seat, the report will offer a glimpse into the unpredictable nature of coaching decisions in the league and keep fans and pundits engaged in the ongoing discussion of job security in the NFL coaching ranks.

Could Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen Become an NFL Record-Breaker This Season?

June 24th, 2023

The new NFL season is right around the corner and anticipation as to what we may see in the upcoming term is already palpable. The campaign will officially get underway on September 7th when the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs take on an underdog Detroit Lions side that prevented the Green Bay Packers from reaching the playoffs last season with a stunning final-day victory at Lambeau Field. While Andy Reid’s Super Bowl holders will be heavy favorites when they welcome their visitors to Arrowhead Stadium, the Lions have shown that they are prone to shock the public, and they will be no pushovers.

Ahead of the new season, there are already plenty of interesting subplots. Future hall-of-famer Aaron Rodgers has left the Packers after 17 years, choosing to wind down his career with the New York Jets and hoping to restore them to contender status once more. Last season's strugglers the Houston Texans stole the show in the recent NFL Draft, and they will be hoping their new quarterback C. J. Stroud and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. - drafted second and third overall - can lead them into a prosperous future.

One of the most commonly used words in the glossary of football terms is ‘favorite’, and it will come as no surprise that the reigning champion Chiefs have been made the +600 favorite to retain the Lombardi next February. They have lifted the trophy twice in the last five seasons, and with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, it's clear to see why. He has stepped into the breach left by Tom Brady and secured his status as the finest QB on the planet in recent years, but could he be set for a record-breaking season next year?

The 2023 season marks a decade since Peyton Manning set the record for most passing yards made in a season. He threw 5,477 for the Denver Broncos back in 2013, but is that long-standing record set to be shattered next term? And if it does indeed fall, will one of these two superstars be the man responsible?

Patrick Mahomes

Ever since Patrick Mahomes was drafted as the tenth overall pick back in 2017, he has transformed the Kansas City Chiefs’ fortunes. Prior to his arrival at Arrowhead Stadium, the Missouri-based outfit had won just one playoff game in 24 years. Fast forward to 2023 and the Chiefs are approaching dynasty status, reaching at least the AFC Conference Championship game in each of the last five seasons.

Throughout the course of the last five years, the former Texas Tech standout has had several impressive seasons. He has twice thrown for more than 5,000 yards, firstly in 2018 and secondly, last season, where he came within 227 yards of breaking Manning’s record. In both of those campaigns however, he finished the season with a Super Bowl ring and the Lombardi in tow, and he will tell you that that is more important than any personal records he may or may not break.

Josh Allen

It seems that all the Buffalo Bills have known over the years is heartache. They remain the only team in NFL history to reach four consecutive Super Bowls however, as we all remember, they went on to lose all four. The maiden Lombardi remains elusive at Highmark Stadium, but ever since Josh Allen came to the New York state-based franchise, the future has looked bright.

The 27-year-old was drafted seventh overall back in 2018, and he has proven worthy of his quarterback role on one of the league’s most famed teams. He is yet to post a 5,000 throwing-yard season however, he does have a 4,500-yard campaign under his belt. And if the Bills can head deeper into the postseason, he may well stand a chance of breaking Manning’s record.

Prior to Allen’s drafting, the Bills had reached the postseason just once this millennium. That came in 2017 when they went on to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wildcard round. During Allen’s maiden campaign with the team, they would miss the postseason however, from 2019 onwards, they have reached the playoffs every year.

Last year, they were the favorites for the Lombardi all season long. They headed into the playoffs with a record that would have matched the AFC top-seed Chiefs had they managed to complete all their fixtures, something they were unable to do due to DeAndre Hamlin’s horror injury. Regardless, had they reached the Conference Championship game, the NFL confirmed that the fixture would take place at a neutral venue.

However, Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals had something to say about that. With the league’s organizers already selling tickets to the proposed neutral venue showdown, Jackpot Joey inspired his side to a stunning 27-10 victory at Highmark Stadium in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, crushing any hopes of a mouth-watering Chiefs-Bengals battle. This season, Allen will be hoping to put that defeat behind him, and if he does, he may well find himself on course for a record-breaking season in the process.

Could Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen Become an NFL Record-Breaker This Season?

Patrick Mahomes

Josh Allen

The Ascendancy of the Lions: NFC North's 2023 Frontrunner

June 5th, 2023

By Oliver Vaughn

In a startling turn of events, the Detroit Lions have surged ahead as the predicted victors of the NFC North this year, according to recent NFL information. This is largely credited to their exceptional performance in 2022 and an impressive offseason, positioning them as the team to beat. This shift represents a significant change in the NFC North, a division that has seen the Lions in the underdog role for many years.

The Detroit Lions Rise:

The Lions' transition to frontrunners in the NFL’s NFC has been facilitated by a mix of their strategic maneuvers and the declining fortunes of their division rivals. The team has significantly improved, with additions that enhance their roster's strength. This change is not only hypothetical - the improvements are tangible and have increased the team's chances of securing the division title.

Concurrently, their division rivals have been grappling with challenges that have affected their competitiveness. The Green Bay Packers, for instance, have suffered a huge loss with the departure of Aaron Rodgers. This has considerably weakened their roster, casting doubt on their ability to pose a serious challenge this season.

The Minnesota Vikings, another key competitor, are also going through a period of transition. They've lost several top players during this offseason, which could impact their performance in the upcoming season. Furthermore, there is uncertainty surrounding star player Dalvin Cook, whose presence in the upcoming season is still unclear. The Vikings had a remarkable season last year, but it seems they may face a tougher road ahead.

Chicago Bears' Promising Offseason:

Despite the amusement often directed toward the Chicago Bears, they have managed to pull off a rather solid offseason. They initially raised eyebrows by investing heavily in two linebackers during the free agency period. However, they made a prudent move by trading away the first overall pick, consequently acquiring substantial draft capital for the future. Although the Bears' performance in the previous year might not inspire much confidence, their offseason moves have laid a foundation that could potentially improve their standings in the division.

Projections for the NFC North:

Given the current circumstances, there is an expectation that the Lions will claim the division title for the first time since 1993. Their stars have aligned, creating an ideal situation for them to seize this opportunity. Anything short of a victory this year could be considered a massive letdown, considering the advantageous position they find themselves in.

The Bears, though not the most likely contenders, could come in second in the division. This prediction is less about the Bears' strength and more about the Packers' and Vikings' decline. For the Bears to make significant progress, their quarterback, Justin Fields, would need to make a substantial leap forward. It's plausible that they could secure seven or eight wins and finish second in the division.

The Minnesota Vikings could possibly end up in the third position. Their recent loss of Za'Darius Smith to the Browns and the overall changes to their roster make them less of a threat this season. It wouldn't be surprising if they even ended up at the bottom of the division this year.

In contrast, the Green Bay Packers remain the division's greatest enigma. With Rodgers gone, it's Jordan Love's time to prove his mettle. His performance could significantly impact the team's standing, but it remains unpredictable how he will adjust to his new role.

Conclusion:

The 2023 NFC North division presents an intriguing scenario. The Lions, once underdogs, are now leading the pack, while former powerhouses are struggling. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of the NFL, where fortunes can change dramatically from one season to the next. As the Lions aim to capitalize on their favorable position, the Bears, Vikings, and Packers will have to navigate their challenges to stay competitive. This upcoming season promises to be a captivating display of resilience, strategy, and the relentless pursuit of excellence in the face of changing odds.

Read our other division predictions:

Chiefs Continued Dominance: Predictions for the AFC West

Sustained Success of the Bills: AFC East’s 2023 Frontrunner

NFC South Rankings: Analyzing the Division's Teams and Outlook