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Game Over Report: Tracking the Likelihood of NFL Coaches Getting Fired

By Stephen Juza

June 28th, 2023

The coaching hot seat is a perennial topic in the NFL, with no coach being immune to the pressure and speculation. With so much turnover, virtually no coach will escape the dreaded hot seat conversation. Even Bill Belichick, who is within striking distance of the career win record, has slowly had the calls for his job ramp up after missing the playoffs in two of the last three seasons.

With so much pressure on coaches, the constant chatter of ‘are they on the Hot Seat’ weighs with every win or loss. A particularly bad loss is immediately followed by “Is this the game that gets them fired?” A key winning streak to close the season can give a team hope that just maybe the coach is living up to the promise and deserves another season at the helm.

This season, we will debut the “Game Over Report” where each week, we will track each coach’s likelihood to be fired by the end of the season. Using a machine learning algorithm, we will assign a probability to each coach that they will be fired by the end of the season.

Who is likely to be fired?

Since 2010, an average of seven coaches have been fired each season. It’s such a common occurrence that a frequent prop bet on various online bookies is for how many coaches will be fired, which coach will be fired, and if they will be fired by the end of the season.

So what does the average fired coach look like? A coach who just led a team to a five-win (or worse) season, who was a career 40%-win percentage coach, and ended the season in the bottom third of the league in points scored and points allowed. If coaches can avoid a terrible season, quiet mediocrity is enough to skate by. Nine-win seasons are typically enough to stick around for another season, if they play nicely with the ownership group.

Which coaches have surprised the model?

While the machine learning algorithm used in the "Game Over Report" boasts a 85% accuracy rate, there have been instances where it failed to predict coaching moves accurately.

Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars – 2013 (68% chance to be fired)

Gus Bradley’s first season in Jacksonville did not inspire much hope for the future. Finishing with a 4-12 record with the worst offense and fourth-worst defense in the league (by points scored). While he survived his initial season, he eventually was fired before the conclusion of his fourth season after leading the team to a 14-48 record.

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns – 2017 (67% chance to be fired)

Hue Jackson’s lack of firing surprised many people in 2017. Not only was the team coming off an 0-16 season, the team only went 1-15 in his first season with the franchise. Despite the 1-31 record, Jackson came back for a third season, only to be fired eight games into the 2018 season.

Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers – 2014 (0% chance to be fired)

While it was initially reported that the decision to leave the 49ers was a ‘mutual’ decision, Jim Harbaugh disagreed with this statement. The model had 74 instances where a coach had 0% chance of being fired at the end of the season – Harbaugh is the only one that was fired. It’s easy to see why the model was surprised. Winning 70% of his games with the franchise, one NFC championship, and playoffs in three of his four seasons. Success that most franchises would strive for, but friction with ownership led to an earlier departure than expected from the NFL.

As the NFL season unfolds, the "Game Over Report" will provide insights into the likelihood of coaches being fired by the end of the season. While no coach can truly escape the hot seat, the report will offer a glimpse into the unpredictable nature of coaching decisions in the league and keep fans and pundits engaged in the ongoing discussion of job security in the NFL coaching ranks.

Could Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen Become an NFL Record-Breaker This Season?

June 24th, 2023

The new NFL season is right around the corner and anticipation as to what we may see in the upcoming term is already palpable. The campaign will officially get underway on September 7th when the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs take on an underdog Detroit Lions side that prevented the Green Bay Packers from reaching the playoffs last season with a stunning final-day victory at Lambeau Field. While Andy Reid’s Super Bowl holders will be heavy favorites when they welcome their visitors to Arrowhead Stadium, the Lions have shown that they are prone to shock the public, and they will be no pushovers.

Ahead of the new season, there are already plenty of interesting subplots. Future hall-of-famer Aaron Rodgers has left the Packers after 17 years, choosing to wind down his career with the New York Jets and hoping to restore them to contender status once more. Last season's strugglers the Houston Texans stole the show in the recent NFL Draft, and they will be hoping their new quarterback C. J. Stroud and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. - drafted second and third overall - can lead them into a prosperous future.

One of the most commonly used words in the glossary of football terms is ‘favorite’, and it will come as no surprise that the reigning champion Chiefs have been made the +600 favorite to retain the Lombardi next February. They have lifted the trophy twice in the last five seasons, and with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, it's clear to see why. He has stepped into the breach left by Tom Brady and secured his status as the finest QB on the planet in recent years, but could he be set for a record-breaking season next year?

The 2023 season marks a decade since Peyton Manning set the record for most passing yards made in a season. He threw 5,477 for the Denver Broncos back in 2013, but is that long-standing record set to be shattered next term? And if it does indeed fall, will one of these two superstars be the man responsible?

Patrick Mahomes

Ever since Patrick Mahomes was drafted as the tenth overall pick back in 2017, he has transformed the Kansas City Chiefs’ fortunes. Prior to his arrival at Arrowhead Stadium, the Missouri-based outfit had won just one playoff game in 24 years. Fast forward to 2023 and the Chiefs are approaching dynasty status, reaching at least the AFC Conference Championship game in each of the last five seasons.

Throughout the course of the last five years, the former Texas Tech standout has had several impressive seasons. He has twice thrown for more than 5,000 yards, firstly in 2018 and secondly, last season, where he came within 227 yards of breaking Manning’s record. In both of those campaigns however, he finished the season with a Super Bowl ring and the Lombardi in tow, and he will tell you that that is more important than any personal records he may or may not break.

Josh Allen

It seems that all the Buffalo Bills have known over the years is heartache. They remain the only team in NFL history to reach four consecutive Super Bowls however, as we all remember, they went on to lose all four. The maiden Lombardi remains elusive at Highmark Stadium, but ever since Josh Allen came to the New York state-based franchise, the future has looked bright.

The 27-year-old was drafted seventh overall back in 2018, and he has proven worthy of his quarterback role on one of the league’s most famed teams. He is yet to post a 5,000 throwing-yard season however, he does have a 4,500-yard campaign under his belt. And if the Bills can head deeper into the postseason, he may well stand a chance of breaking Manning’s record.

Prior to Allen’s drafting, the Bills had reached the postseason just once this millennium. That came in 2017 when they went on to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wildcard round. During Allen’s maiden campaign with the team, they would miss the postseason however, from 2019 onwards, they have reached the playoffs every year.

Last year, they were the favorites for the Lombardi all season long. They headed into the playoffs with a record that would have matched the AFC top-seed Chiefs had they managed to complete all their fixtures, something they were unable to do due to DeAndre Hamlin’s horror injury. Regardless, had they reached the Conference Championship game, the NFL confirmed that the fixture would take place at a neutral venue.

However, Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals had something to say about that. With the league’s organizers already selling tickets to the proposed neutral venue showdown, Jackpot Joey inspired his side to a stunning 27-10 victory at Highmark Stadium in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, crushing any hopes of a mouth-watering Chiefs-Bengals battle. This season, Allen will be hoping to put that defeat behind him, and if he does, he may well find himself on course for a record-breaking season in the process.

Could Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen Become an NFL Record-Breaker This Season?

Patrick Mahomes

Josh Allen

The Ascendancy of the Lions: NFC North's 2023 Frontrunner

June 5th, 2023

By Oliver Vaughn

In a startling turn of events, the Detroit Lions have surged ahead as the predicted victors of the NFC North this year, according to recent NFL information. This is largely credited to their exceptional performance in 2022 and an impressive offseason, positioning them as the team to beat. This shift represents a significant change in the NFC North, a division that has seen the Lions in the underdog role for many years.

The Detroit Lions Rise:

The Lions' transition to frontrunners in the NFL’s NFC has been facilitated by a mix of their strategic maneuvers and the declining fortunes of their division rivals. The team has significantly improved, with additions that enhance their roster's strength. This change is not only hypothetical - the improvements are tangible and have increased the team's chances of securing the division title.

Concurrently, their division rivals have been grappling with challenges that have affected their competitiveness. The Green Bay Packers, for instance, have suffered a huge loss with the departure of Aaron Rodgers. This has considerably weakened their roster, casting doubt on their ability to pose a serious challenge this season.

The Minnesota Vikings, another key competitor, are also going through a period of transition. They've lost several top players during this offseason, which could impact their performance in the upcoming season. Furthermore, there is uncertainty surrounding star player Dalvin Cook, whose presence in the upcoming season is still unclear. The Vikings had a remarkable season last year, but it seems they may face a tougher road ahead.

Chicago Bears' Promising Offseason:

Despite the amusement often directed toward the Chicago Bears, they have managed to pull off a rather solid offseason. They initially raised eyebrows by investing heavily in two linebackers during the free agency period. However, they made a prudent move by trading away the first overall pick, consequently acquiring substantial draft capital for the future. Although the Bears' performance in the previous year might not inspire much confidence, their offseason moves have laid a foundation that could potentially improve their standings in the division.

Projections for the NFC North:

Given the current circumstances, there is an expectation that the Lions will claim the division title for the first time since 1993. Their stars have aligned, creating an ideal situation for them to seize this opportunity. Anything short of a victory this year could be considered a massive letdown, considering the advantageous position they find themselves in.

The Bears, though not the most likely contenders, could come in second in the division. This prediction is less about the Bears' strength and more about the Packers' and Vikings' decline. For the Bears to make significant progress, their quarterback, Justin Fields, would need to make a substantial leap forward. It's plausible that they could secure seven or eight wins and finish second in the division.

The Minnesota Vikings could possibly end up in the third position. Their recent loss of Za'Darius Smith to the Browns and the overall changes to their roster make them less of a threat this season. It wouldn't be surprising if they even ended up at the bottom of the division this year.

In contrast, the Green Bay Packers remain the division's greatest enigma. With Rodgers gone, it's Jordan Love's time to prove his mettle. His performance could significantly impact the team's standing, but it remains unpredictable how he will adjust to his new role.

Conclusion:

The 2023 NFC North division presents an intriguing scenario. The Lions, once underdogs, are now leading the pack, while former powerhouses are struggling. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of the NFL, where fortunes can change dramatically from one season to the next. As the Lions aim to capitalize on their favorable position, the Bears, Vikings, and Packers will have to navigate their challenges to stay competitive. This upcoming season promises to be a captivating display of resilience, strategy, and the relentless pursuit of excellence in the face of changing odds.

Read our other division predictions:

Chiefs Continued Dominance: Predictions for the AFC West

Sustained Success of the Bills: AFC East’s 2023 Frontrunner

NFC South Rankings: Analyzing the Division's Teams and Outlook

Can the Kansas City Chiefs Repeat as Champions

May 11th, 2023

The Kansas City Chiefs are currently on everyone's minds as they emerged victorious from the Super Bowl. Many presumed that losing out on Tyreek Hill, their top wide receiver, last offseason would have hurt their offense, but they came back with the top ranked offense in 2022. Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes paved the way for the Chiefs' victory in the Super Bowl as he completed 21 of 27 passes and three touchdowns.

With the NFL draft behind us, speculation for Super Bowl 2024 has already begun. While any team can feel optimistic on their chances for the upcoming season, the odds are not in most team’s favor. While the odds are a great tool for analyzing a team's performance, they're also an incredible tool to manage your bets for the biggest football game on Earth.

It’s not surprising for prominent online betting sites to provide odds of big sports event in much advance. According to the American Gaming Association, over 50.4 million people placed their bets on the teams participating in the gargantuan football event. With over $16 billion estimated to have been wagered, that number will only grow larger by the next Super Bowl. If the bets are placed correctly, players can enjoy the dynamic betting experience and walk away with a lot of rewards.

Kansas City Chiefs: Current Super Bowl Favorites

While the betting odds are subject to a lot of factors, the Kansas City Chiefs entered the offseason as the team with the best odds. Winning one Super Bowl is incredibly difficult - repeating is near insurmountable. The Chiefs are hoping to be the first team since the Patriots in the early 00’s to repeat as champions, and only the ninth team ever to accomplish the task.

In the Chiefs way stand the San Francisco 49ers, assuming they can keep a QB healthy for the entire season. Brock Purdy is expected to be ready for training camp in a few months, but he will still have a competition between Trey Lance and Sam Darnold.

With the New York Jets quiring the former MVP and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, they are a dark horse candidate to win this season.. Needless to say, the Chiefs road ahead to claim the third Super Bowl in the Andy Reid era is not an easy one. Despite the competition, they remain a favorite for bettors and rightfully so.

The betting action next year is sure to be even more lively, and not to mention the recent betting legalization has drastically driven up the public interest in the sport. American Gaming Association also noted “bettors are evenly split on the outcome of the game with 44 percent each planning to bet on the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.” This says a lot about the NFL’s current state.

Conclusion

If the Chiefs’ rookie class can contribute for the team and replace starters who departed in free agency, it will certainly help the Chiefs repeat as champions. The team invested heavily during the draft in the offensive line, pass rush, and pass defense. Their contributions will be key to keep the team in championship status.