Pro Football History.com Blog

The Downfall of Bill Belichick

By Stephen Juza

November 11th, 2023

Bill Belichick’s tenure with the New England Patriots has been nothing short of legendary. His unmatched success in the NFL includes six Super Bowl titles, making him one of the greatest coaches in the league's history. However, recent developments have raised concerns about his future with the franchise. Entering Week 10, he has a 49% chance of being fired after the season according to our model, leading many to speculate about the end of an era.

In this article, we will delve into the recent history of Bill Belichick and the Patriots, and the reasons why he is on the precipice of being fired.

Tom Brady:

It’s a cop out to simply suggest “it’s because he no longer has Tom Brady”. It’s true that his record without Brady as a starter pales in comparison to his record with Brady. But early on, Belichick saw something special in the 6th round draft pick, keeping four quarterbacks on the roster in Brady's rookie season when a typical team only carried three. This was even more surprising because the Patriots had signed starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe to the largest contract in NFL history before Brady’s second season. While his future GM moves have made his life as a coach more difficult, one of his first decisions certainly reshaped NFL history in his favor.

While Brady may have been a constant player on the Patriots unprecedented run of success, credit goes to Belichick to always change the team’s scheme to match where their talent lies, or spotting emerging trends before the rest of the NFL. Shifting from dominating defenses early in his tenure, to an offensive strategy that highlighted speedy or shifty wide receivers, to one that focused on two tight end sets, and back to defense, all while maintaining a level of success that was previously thought impossible in the era of free agency. However, Brady was always the glue that held the offensive side of the ball together, no matter which players suited up on Sunday.

Inflection Point: August 6th, 2020:

That all came crashing down in 2020. Brady left the team in free agency in March, 2020, but arguably the bigger hit came on August 6th, 2020. That was the day that players had to opt out of the 2020 season due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Patriots had eight players opt out, by far the most of any team. These opt outs included several starters, such as defensive players Patrick Chung and Dont’a Hightower.

While Brady created a leadership void on offense, the team had all offseason to mitigate this loss. Losing two starters on defense on the eve of training camp proved to be too much. It’s quite possible that the Patriots had so many opt outs due to their prior success; an NFL career is very short, and already reaching the Super Bowl pinnacle may have made it easy to sit out. In a way, Belichick’s success helped bring about his downfall.

While losing multiple starters was bad enough, two vital pieces of his coaching staff also departed that offseason: offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia and director of football research Ernie Adams. While Scarnecchia was vital at forming the offensive line for almost two decades, Adams was responsible for scouring any possible area for a mathematical advantage. He managed this by working with statistics professors to help hone the team’s game plan for when to go for it on fourth down, when to go for two points, and many other ideas. The Patriots were early adopters of some of these strategies, and without Adams, the rest of the league was able to catch up.

Coaching Staff Limitations:

Belichick has always shown a reluctance to hire position coaches and above from outside his coaching tree, almost always opting to promote from within. Additionally, he has shown great loyalty to former assistants, offering them a spot on the staff after they are fired from their own head coaching opportunities. However, this has led to a deficient coaching staff that is atypical from the modern NFL team.

Over his Patriots tenure, he has often opted to choose a coach with no position experience over an unfamiliar coach for a position (or coordinator) coaching role. As his long-time coaches retired, inexperience crept into his staff. Scarnecchia, who coached from 2000-2013 and again from 2016-2020, was replaced by two coaches (Cole Popovich and Carmen Bricillo) who had never coached the position before. Running backs coach Ivan Fears (2002-2021) retired and was replaced by Vinnie Sunseri, who had a single year of running back experience assistant Fears before being handed the reins. Wide receiver coach Chad O'Shea offered stability at the position from 2009-2018, but in 2019 was replaced by former special teams coach, Joe Judge.

That was also not the only time that Judge had coached a position he had no prior experience with. Last season, after being fired as head coach from the Giants, Belichick offered him the quarterbacks coach position for second-year quarterback Mac Jones. Meanwhile, Judge couldn’t even rely on an experienced offensive coordinator, because the team didn’t have one, and play calling had gone to former defensive coordinator-turned-offensive line coach (and recently fired Lions head coach) Matt Patricia.

The NFL Is Entertainment:

The NFL is first and foremost an entertainment product, and Belichick has committed a cardinal sin of having a bad team that is also a very boring team. They sit last in the league, with a quarterback who has given little hope for the future, with a bottom-tier offense and defense.

They are on pace to score their fewest points per game (15.0) since 1993, while the defense is on pace to allow more points per game (25.3) in a season since 1990. A complete breakdown on both sides of the ball, and the buck stops at Belichick. Whether it’s a coaching problem, or a player problem, his complete control of football operations in New England means he has only himself to blame.

It’s also not too late for him to turn around the season. Coming up next, they face three straight opponents without a winning record, with a bye week in there. But no coach is immune to being fired. If Tom Landry can be fired in Dallas, if Andy Reid in Philadelphia, and Mike Shanahan in Denver, are we about to see how much leeway six Super Bowls grant a coach?

Josh McDaniels: First Head Coach Fired

By Stephen Juza

November 1st, 2023

This week, the Las Vegas Raiders parted ways with head coach Josh McDaniels, making him the first head coach to be fired this season. It came as a shock, not necessarily because his performance was stellar, but rather because he had four years left on his contract. Speculation had been that McDaniels would remain at the helm simply to avoid the cost of a buyout.

While it may be surprising that he was the first to be fired, his performance has been suggesting he would have been fired for the last several weeks. According to our predictive firing model, he has been over 50% three of the last four weeks of the season, peaking at 62% after Week 5.

This score is based only on the product that’s occurring on the field, it does not factor in the discontent that has occurred in the locker room all season long. Star wide receiver Davante Adams has made it clear how unhappy he is with the Raiders season. Even before the season, he had expressed that he didn’t “see eye-to-eye” with the franchise. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, a big offseason acquisition for the team this offseason, has performed poorly and lost his starting job with the McDaniels firing.

The Raiders will move forward with linebackers coach Antonio Pierce as the interim quarterback. Additionally, offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi was also fired, although no replacement was immediately named.

With McDaniels’ termination, it continues to leave Patriots coach Bill Belichick with one of the least successful coaching trees in the last thirty years. However, Belichick has always shown loyalty to his former assistants, which could just mean we see McDaniels return to the Patriots’ sideline before the end of the season.

It’s not unprecedented that a fired head coach returns as an assistant coach for another team mid-season. For example, in 2018 Browns head coach Hue Jackson was fired midseason and spent the last five weeks of the season as an assistant for the Bengals. McDaniels could help provide valuable experience for the Patriots.

While they have a true offensive coordinator this season with Bill O’Brien, it’s worth noting that McDaniels was running the offense when quarterback Mac Jones posted his best season in the NFL. While it may be too late to salvage a winning season for the Patriots, they may be able to right the ship and give the Patriots confidence with Belichick continuing into 2024.

Even if he doesn’t end up in New England in the coming weeks, expect McDaniels to be a hot commodity as an assistant for the 2024 season. Just don’t expect him to be a head coach ever again.

From Sidelines to Spotlights: The NFL's Meteoric Rise in Sports Wagering

October 16th, 2023

The National Football League (NFL), with its thrilling touchdowns and nail-biting finishes, has etched itself into the hearts of millions. But there’s another dimension to the game that has been steadily gaining traction over the years — sports wagering. The journey from the NFL's humble betting beginnings to its current standing as a titan in the sports wagering arena is nothing short of remarkable.

A Humble Kick-off

Historically, sports wagering in the U.S. was met with skepticism. It was seen more as a seedy pastime than an engaging activity. But as time passed, perceptions started to change. By the mid-20th century, the emergence of Las Vegas as the 'Mecca of Gambling' began to paint wagering in a different, more glamorous light.

Even so, the NFL maintained a wary distance from the gambling world for several years. It wasn't until the 1970s and 1980s that a subtle shift began. With the proliferation of sports publications and the rise of Las Vegas sportsbooks, the NFL started recognizing the latent potential in sports wagering. Winds of Change: From Reluctance to Recognition The 1990s ushered in a new era. The digital age began to reshape every facet of our lives, including how we engage with sports and wagers. The internet has made it easier than ever for fans to access data, compare sports betting odds, and place stakes, driving a surge in sports wagering's popularity.

While the NFL was still hesitant to embrace wagering, they couldn't ignore its growing significance. By the early 2000s, fantasy football was all the rage, serving as a bridge between traditional football fandom and the world of wagering. This fantasy realm allowed the NFL to dip its toes into the gambling waters without fully diving in.

Legalization and Legitimization

The real game-changer came in 2018 when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), paving the way for states to legalize sports wagering. This decision opened floodgates for sports leagues, including the NFL, to explore partnerships with wagering establishments and integrate wagering more holistically into their operations.

With states legalizing sports wagering one after another, the NFL began to ink deals with major sportsbooks, further solidifying its position in the market. Not just limited to sponsorships, these collaborations started to offer immersive experiences for fans, such as in-stadium betting kiosks and exclusive wagering content.

Current Landscape: A Behemoth in the Wagering World

Today, the NFL stands tall as one of the premier events for sports betting enthusiasts. The league's games are not just about cheering for one's favorite team but also about analyzing odds, making predictions, and experiencing the thrill of a well-placed stake.

The recent NFL seasons have showcased this integration seamlessly. In-game stats aren't just for player performance analytics; they're also vital tools for live wagering, where stakes are placed in real time based on the ongoing action.

In addition, events like the Super Bowl have transcended sports to become cultural phenomena. Beyond just the game's outcome, every aspect, from the halftime show to the commercials, offers wagering opportunities, drawing both football aficionados and casual viewers into the exciting world of sports wagering.

Conclusion

The NFL's journey in the domain of sports wagering is a testament to the league's adaptability and foresight. By recognizing the changing landscape and embracing the possibilities, the NFL has not only amplified its global appeal but has also provided fans with newer, more exhilarating ways to engage with the sport they love. As the lines between sports and wagering continue to blur, the NFL is poised to remain at the forefront, leading the charge into the future.

Week 4 Recap

By Stephen Juza

October 3rd, 2023

With almost 25% of the season completed, let’s take stock of the state of the league and surprises that have occurred in the first month of the season.

In the days between Week 4 and Week 5, one way to pass the time would be playing slot games online at the various online casinos, regardless of your location.

Surprise Contender:

While most of the division leaders we predicted to be there, Miami Dolphins, at 3-1, caught us off guard. While they had their epic game against the Denver Broncos two weeks ago where they scored 70 points, they had a bit of a return to earth after losing to Buffalo 48-20. Despite the loss, the offense has been impressive, and they are loaded with speed up and down the depth chart. The running back tandem of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane has helped lift the Dolphins to the league-leading rushing attack.

If the Dolphins can keep this up, expect the team to be 5-1 before they take on the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 7 for their next opportunity for a statement win.

Surprise Dud:

Arguably the biggest disappointment throughout the first four games was the Cincinnati Bengals, who currently sit at 1-3. After finishing last year as the AFC’s #3 seed and losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, many people expected the Bengals to be right back in the thick of things in 2023.

However, quarterback Joe Burrow struggled in the first four games, posting some of his worst stats of his career. His completion percentage has dropped more than 10 percentage points since last year, while posting the lowest passing rating this season of any quarterback who has played all four games. Meanwhile, there may be some discontent in the locker room with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who expressed his frustration with his lack of opportunities after the latest loss to the Titans.

Biggest Injury:

The most impactful injury through four games has undoubtedly been to New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon four plays into his inaugural season with the Jets, causing the team to unexpectedly revert back to Zach Wilson. The Jets spent all offseason turning over the roster and coaching scheme to make Rodgers comfortable, only to have to pull an audible quickly.

The Jets had Super Bowl aspirations entering the season and are now having to reset expectations. While Zach Wilson played the best game of his NFL career on Sunday against the Chiefs, he ultimately turned the ball over at the worst time, fumbling the snap with an opportunity to take the lead late in the fourth quarter. If he can continue to play like he did against the Chiefs, the Jets may still be able to scrape out a wild card appearance. But it will remain a “what-if” season compared to what would have been with Rodgers at the helm.

Game of the Week:

Week 5’s game of the week is a matchup of two between the top teams in the NFC when the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers (4-0) on Sunday Night Football. This matchup pits the two best offenses against the two best defenses of the conference. This will also represent both teams' most difficult game so far in the young season.

The teams the Cowboys have beaten each have only one win on the season, so a victory against the 49ers would help to give them an early statement win and show they are truly a contender this season.

Coaching Hot Seat

While Bears coach Matt Eberflus tops our likelihood of being fired at the end of the season at 81% again, there are a few coaches that are contending for the top spot.

Brian Daboll:

With Monday’s latest loss to Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants head coach Norm Gerber now sits at 76% chance of being fired. While he won coach of the year in 2022, the Giants (1-3) are off to a terrible start to the season, sitting last in the NFC East. With consecutive road games against AFC East-leading Bills and Dolphins, the schedule won’t get easier for them.

Zac Taylor:

With the latest loss for the Bengals, Zac Taylor now ranks just below Daboll at a 68% chance to be fired if he can’t turn around the team. This was the first week that he scored above 50% for the season, and their best chance of a win in the coming weeks is next week against the Arizona Cardinals. After that, the Bengals face the Seahawks, 49ers, and the Bills, a combined 10-2 on the season.

Week 3 - What did we learn

By Stephen Juza

September 28th, 2023

The third week of the NFL season saw countless great games across the league, the highest-scoring game in decades, and top teams in the league continued their trek towards a Super Bowl championship.

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So, what were the top takeaways from a packed Week 3?

The Dolphins Will Be Scary

Before the season, we wrote about how quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has posted incredibly strong advanced metrics, but his struggle has been staying on the field. Through three games, he’s second in the league in passing yards, with the highest average per completion, and the second most touchdowns. But the offense isn’t just Tagovailoa - last week their speedsters shined en route to 726 yards, an NFL record for the Super Bowl era, and the first 70 point game since 1966.

Even more remarkable, this offensive output was without Jaylen Waddle due to injury. Despite the injury, the Dolphins excelled at spreading the ball around. Five different players had more than fifty yards of offense while running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert combined for eight touchdowns.

They won’t always be able to go up against a hapless team like the Broncos, but with so many offensive weapons, there are few teams that will be able to slow down this team.

Eagles and 49ers continue their march toward an NFC Championship Rematch

The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers are now the only remaining undefeated teams in the NFC. The 49ers have been very consistent en route to the top scoring team in the NFC, scoring exactly 30 points in each game. Meanwhile, the Eagles are only a shade behind them with the fourth-highest scoring offense in the conference at 84 points.

While it’s early in the season, both teams are putting themselves in early position for a deep playoff run, sitting atop their conference, using the same successful formula that put them in the NFC Championship Game last season.

Without Aaron Rodgers, the Jets are atrocious

I’ve never seen a swing-for-the-fences move backfire so spectacularly, so early in a season. All offseason long, the Jets were dark-horse contenders. There were some questions if Aaron Rodgers had started to decline or if his 2022 season was an anomaly. The Jets offensive line was also considered a weak point. All of that came to a screeching halt after only four plays when Rodgers went down with his Achilles injury. In comes Zach Wilson, a quarterback who time and time again has shown he’s not an NFL caliber quarterback. While the team managed an overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, there were questions on what the Jets should do to proceed.

Unfortunately, the team’s hands were tied - now that the season had started, all the capable veteran quarterbacks were on a roster. Beyond that, experienced backups, such as Gardner Minshew or Andy Dalton, were virtually untouchable because their respective teams also valued an experienced backup for their young quarterback. That’s even before you get into the discussion of what the Jets have at their trade disposal (spoiler, not much).

Head coach Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas will likely be fired after yet another bad season behind a very talented team. Their only hope is that Wilson turns things around and shows talent that made him a second overall pick in the draft just a few short years ago.

Games to Watch This Week:

There are two excellent divisional matchups that fans need to watch this upcoming week.

The first is tonight, when the Lions take on the Packers. With both teams sitting at 2-1, it will offer a great chance to take early control of the division with the other two teams floundering at 0-3. The Packers have been far more secure with the football, only turning the ball over once all season, and this could be the deciding factor in the divisional matchup. Expect the Packers to secure the home victory.

The second divisional matchup kicks off Sunday afternoon when the Dolphins take on the Bills. As the two highest scoring offenses match up, with the Dolphins coming off one of the most dominating performances ever seen, everyone is eager to watch how they respond. The team hopes to have Waddle back in the lineup to help fuel the offense, and that should be enough to topple the Bills for control of the AFC East.

Coaches on the Hot Seat:

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (81% Chance of being fired)

On top of our coaching hot seat report is Eberflus again. After yet another loss, his likelihood of being fired has crept up to 81%. This week could be their best shot at a win for a little while when they play at home against the Denver Broncos. Eberflus needs to right the ship quickly for his team, otherwise it may be an early offseason for him.