Pro Football History.com Blog

Week 3 - Games to Watch

By Stephen Juza

September 21st, 2023

As the third week of the NFL approaches, which are the top games that you should build your sports calendar around in the coming days?

Thursday Night: Giants at 49ers

The NFL week kicks off with one of this week’s top matchups when the New York Giants (1-1) travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers (2-0). The 49ers have looked like the best team in the league so far, winning both of their games on the road. They have the third best scoring offense and defense, and have excelled in all facets of the game.

The Giants came into this season with higher expectations after last season's Wild Card appearance, but had a very slow start, losing 40-0 against the Cowboys and starting down 20-0 against the Cardinals. They were able to come back and beat the Cardinals, giving life to their team, but can they keep the momentum with a short week of preparation? It will be difficult without their best offensive weapon after running back Saquon Barkley was ruled out with an ankle injury.

Sunday Afternoon: Saints at Packers

Both the New Orleans Saints (2-0) and the Green Bay Packers (1-1) have pleasantly surprised fans to start the NFL season. Both teams are tied for the division lead entering Week 3. For the Saints, the NFC South was expected to be wide open this season as every single team was breaking in a new starting quarterback, and that’s held true through the first two games.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love has looked strong in his first two games as the leader of the Packers, with six touchdowns (T-1 in the league) with zero interceptions. He leads the second ranked offense in the league, averaging 31 points a game. They lost a nail-biter of a game last week against the undefeated Falcons, 25-24, and look to rebound against another NFC South team this week.

Monday Night: Eagles at Buccaneers

The game of the week kicks off a Monday Night double-header when the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0). Regarding the Eagles, their ability to dominate the running game on both sides of the ball has been instrumental in their success so far this season. They’ve rushed for the second most yards through two weeks, while their defense is ranked first in rush defense.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are also tied for their division lead behind new quarterback, Baker Mayfield. He has big shoes to fill, replacing future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. However, the Bucs key to the game lies with their rush defense. While the Eagles have the second ranked rushing offense, the Bucs have the second ranked rushing defense. It will be a battle of strengths in Tampa Monday night, with the victor continuing their undefeated season.

Coaches on the Hot Seat:

Before the season started, we announced the Game Over Report, a predictive model that scores a coach’s likelihood being fired. Each season, around five coaches decide to part ways with their head coach and search for greener pastures. So which coaches are feeling the heat early in the season?

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Leading the report with an 86% chance of being fired if the season were to end today, and it’s easy to see why. The team has started 0-2, went 3-14 in his first season, and the starting quarterback is now openly questioning the coaching staff. While it’s early in the season, the Bears will need to turn things around quickly for Eberflus to have a chance to come back for a third season.

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Entering the season, the Chargers were primed for another wild card run. While they likely weren’t good enough to top the Chiefs for an AFC West title, they looked to be an easy choice for second place and another wild card appearance. While their offense has been good enough to keep them in games, ranked sixth in total points, their defense continues to be holding the team back. Entering Week 3, no team has given up more yards than the Chargers. Not a good look for a former defensive coordinator, who now has a 73% chance of being fired.

NFL Under 25: Ranking the Best Young Players Entering the 2023 Season

September 13th, 2023

The NFL saw the exit of top stars after last season, with Tom Brady, Devin McCourty, A.J. Green, and J.J. Watt hanging their boots after a successful career. However, the older players are leaving the scene for young stars like Micah Parsons, Justin Jefferson, and Sauce Gardner across the league to emerge and take the stage.

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Micah Parsons, Edge (Dallas Cowboys)

Parsons had another strong year as a pass rusher after continuing his excellent play from his rookie season. Registering a 92.0 pass-rush grade and 23.4% pass-rush win percentage according to Pro-Football-Focus in 2022, Parsons has established himself as one of the most impactful players in the NFL, age regardless.

Justin Jefferson, WR (Minnesota Vikings)

For the Minnesota Vikings for three years running, Justin Jefferson has demonstrated exceptional performances, earning commendable evaluations. His performances in the last three years have recorded at least a 90+ grade. He is therefore unparalleled among NFL receivers and stands head and shoulders above many others his age based on dominance and consistency.

Tristan Wirfs, OT (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Although Wirfs’ overall grade dipped from his 2022 performance from 84.3 to 83.1, his pass-blocking grade spiked to a near-elite 89.1. The stand-out Tampa Bay offensive tackle allowed only six total pressures on 696 pass-blocking snaps, consistently putting up strong play that can help him properly transition from right tackle to left tackle during the 2023 season.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR (Cincinnati Bengals)

Chase received grades during his first two professional seasons, registering 86.1 in 2021 and 85.2 in 2022. He’s recorded 3,000 receiving yards and 25 receiving touchdowns over the same period. With explosive plays of at least 20 yards, Chase is sure to be one of the top wide receivers in the NFL.

Sauce Gardner, CB (New York Jets)

Sauce Garder has displayed such an impressive outing in his rookie year that we've decided to include him in this list. The New York Jets cornerback registered an elite 90.0 coverage grade with 20 forced incompletions and less than 400 receiving yards allowed on 613 total coverage snaps. Remember that despite being targeted constantly (74 times), Sauce remained a shutdown player throughout the 2022 season.

Creed Humprey, C (Kansas City Chiefs)

Humprey has remained as rock solid as you'd expect a young offensive lineman to be. He's registered consecutive elite performances in 2021 and 2022, registering 91.8 and 89.9 respectively. On over 1,400 true pass-blocking snaps played, Humprey gave up only 28 total pressures and one sack over the last two seasons!

Patrick Surtain II, CB (Denver Broncos)

Patrick’s 66.3 coverage grade in 2021 was immense for a rookie cornerback (bar Sauce Gardner’s unbelievable feat). However, his 2022 86.7 coverage grade was what the fans expect from a player getting into elitism. Patrick allowed only 47 passing yards in coverage with eight forced incompletions.

Rashawn Slater, OT (Los Angeles Chargers)

No thanks to his injury during the 2022 season, Slater would have likely recorded a better outing. Ending his rookie year with an 83.6 overall grade on over 1,000 snaps played, the Los Angeles offensive tackle has cemented himself among the NFL International Series tops in his age range. Undoubtedly, a healthy season for the Northwestern graduate will be at the top of his priorities going into the 2023 season.

CeeDee Lamb, WR (Dallas Cowboys)

Lamb has been an immediate impact receiver for the Dallas Cowboys since his debut season. Recording just under 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie years, Lamb has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in each of the last two seasons. Meanwhile, his receiving grades have spiked, jumping from 72.6 in 2020 to 84.8 in 2021 and 87.0 in 2022. Save Justin Jefferson, Lamb has recorded more explosive plays of 20 yards or more since 2021 than any other player, old or young, in the NFL.

Andrew Thomas, OT (New York Giants)

Andrew registered a significant leap in his sophomore season in 2022, recording a jump from his 2021 78.9 grade to an elite 90.3 in 2022. Initially a first-round (4th pick overall) draft choice by the Giants in 2020, Andrew Thomas also registered an 89.9 pass-blocking grade in 2022, one of the highest in the league, allowing only seven sacks or hits on 700 pass-blocking snaps. This should provide a sufficient explanation if anyone wondered why Andrew Thomas got a record-setting contract with the Giants.

Trevor Lawrence, QB (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Lawrence has made immense progress over the last season under head coach Doug Pederson. The quarterback's skill was demonstrated in 2022, elevating him to the top spot among draught prospects in 2021. Lawrence led the Jaguars to their first playoff win since the 2017 season when Todd Wash coordinated the defense. However, the future looks bright for Jacksonville with Lawrence on the roster as he looks poised to improve his game.

Christian Barmore, IDL (New England Patriots)

Barmore makes this list because of how his impact jumps out when you watch him from the screen. The defensive tackle has wreaked havoc on opposing sides, making contributions that his stat line will heavily underrepresent (2.5 sacks in 10 games in the 2022 season). Although Barmore, 23, is frequently disregarded, the Patriots consider him to be a treasure.

Summing Up

These young stars take the top stage among their peers, displaying impressive performances in their budding careers. There are undoubtedly other young players putting out their A-game in the league, and fans can expect more from this new crop of NFL stars.

Week 1 - What Did We Learn?

By Stephen Juza

September 12th, 2023

Last Thursday saw the start of the 2023 NFL Season, when the Detroit Lions traveled to Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl champions. After a months-long offseason, we finally had meaningful football back in our life this past weekend. So what are the top things we learned after Week 1?

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Lions continue to roll

Halfway through the last year, the Lions were 1-6, and things looked bleak for Dan Campbell’s future. Since then, they closed out the season winning eight of their next ten games and half a game out of the playoffs. So how would they respond to the increased hype for 2023?

Traveling to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and coming home with a win. True, the Chiefs were without their second and third best players, but you can only play against the players that are on the field. The Lions showed promise, coming back from a 14-7 halftime deficit to clinch the win in the fourth quarter.

Purdy picks up where he left off

The San Francisco 49ers season came to an unfortunate end last season in the NFC Championship game after their entire QB room ended up injured. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy burst out of the injury-stricken depth chart to start the final five games of the regular season and lead the team into the playoffs. He suffered a torn UCL in their final game, but had to continue playing since no other QB was healthy. So how would he look after an offseason as the starter?

Pretty sharp. The 49ers topped the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-7 with Purdy picking up right where he left off last season. 220 yards through the air, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. When he’s that efficient, the 49ers will be hard to topple. Christian McCaffery averaged almost seven yards a carry for 152 yards on the ground. The one area they need to clean up for next week is ball security - the 49ers fumbled three times.

Jets’ defense is scary, but the offense is limited by the QB position

After an entire offseason of hype for the New York Jets came crashing to earth just four offensive snaps into the game when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury and missed the rest of the game. The Jets’ defense looked incredible, forcing Josh Allen into four turnovers and limiting last year’s second-ranked offense to only one offensive touchdown.

The Jets offense at times was hard to watch. Breece Hall had a few spectacular runs, and Garrett Wilson had a spectacular one-handed touchdown catch. But with Rodgers now missing the rest of the season, the team will need to add another quarterback on the roster or face a long season with Zach Wilson back at the helm.

Rough week for the new head coaches

This past offseason saw five head coaches hired with a wide range of expectations entering the season. Each of the five will need to wait until Week 2 to earn their first victory with their new team.

Sean Payton entered with the most expectations by virtue of his past success with the Saints, but the Broncos fell by a single point to the division rival Las Vegas Raiders. Frank Reich’s debut with the new rookie quarterback Bryce Young was spoiled by the Atlanta Falcons. Expectations may be lower for the trio of rookie head coaches (2999 does not exist, Shane Steichen, and Jonathan Gannon), but all hoped for a brighter start to their coaching careers, after having such success as a coordinator last season.

Week 1 - What Did We Learn?

By Stephen Juza

September 12th, 2023

Lions continue to roll

Purdy picks up where he left off

The 49ers season came to an unfortunate end last season in the NFC Championship game after their entire QB room ended up injured. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy burst out of the injury-stricken depth chart to start the final five games of the regular season and lead the team into the playoffs. He suffered a torn UCL in their final game, but had to continue playing since no other QB was healthy. So how would he look after an offseason as the starter?

Jets’ defense is scary, but the offense is limited by the QB position

After an entire offseason of hype for the Jets came crashing to earth just four offensive snaps into the game when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury and missed the rest of the game. The Jets’ defense looked incredible, forcing Josh Allen into four turnovers and limiting last year’s second-ranked offense to only one offensive touchdown.

Rough week for the new head coaches

This past offseason saw five head coaches hired with a wide range of expectations entering the season. Each of the five will need to wait until Week 2 to earn their first victory with their new team.

Sean Payton entered with the most expectations by virtue of his past success with the Saints, but the Broncos fell by a single point to the division rival Las Vegas Raiders. Frank Reich’s debut with the new rookie quarterback Bryce Young was spoiled by the Atlanta Falcons. Expectations may be lower for the trio of rookie head coaches (DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen, and Jonathan Gannon), but all hoped for a brighter start to their coaching careers, after having such success as a coordinator last season.

Cowboys’ Destruction of the Giants

It’s hard to picture a more complete victory than the Dallas Cowboys dismantling of the New York Giants on Sunday, a 40-0 shutout that included all areas of the game. Dallas scored their 40 points in unconventional ways. In the first quarter alone, the Cowboys returned an interception and a blocked field goal for a touchdown. Their defense limited the Giants’ offense to less than 200 yards of offense, harassing Daniel Jones to the tune of seven sacks and two interceptions.

If there was a question remaining after the game, it was that we only got to see a limited Cowboys’ offense because they were rarely on the field. The Cowboys were already at a 16 point lead by the time the offense trotted out for their second drive.

The Giants had high hopes coming into this season, with reigning coach of the year Brian Daboll and the Daniel Jones of 2022 looking like a solution to their long term QB needs. They were thoroughly outplayed by the division rivals to kick off the season.

The second week of the season will kick off Thursday when the Vikings travel to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football.

Week 1 Games to Watch

By Stephen Juza

September 6th, 2023

After a long offseason, the NFL returns to action this week. The season kicks off on Thursday with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. With a full slate of games, which ones should capture your attention? Here are our top three games for Week 1, all in different time slots to offer you maximum viewing opportunities.

Lions at Chiefs:

The NFL selected an exciting game to kick off the NFL season, with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions, a team desperate to prove that last season was not a fluke. The Chiefs enter the season primed for another championship run behind head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

However, the league seems to be buying into the Lions’ hype for 2023. Coming off their strongest season since 2017, the Lions are looking to capture their first division title in 30 years. Dan Campbell hopes to show that last season’s surprise outcome was not a fluke, while quarterback Jared Goff is hoping to show he can be a long term solution at the position.

A Lions win would be a surprise, but would show the entire league that 2022 was not a fluke and, while putting them squarely in contention for the NFC North title.

Bills at Jets:

The AFC East could be the toughest division in the league this year, with both the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets figuring to be competing for something more than just the division title. The Bills remain the team to beat, coming off three straight division titles. However, the Jets made probably the biggest splash of the offseason, trading for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.

The Jets suffered from arguably the worst quarterback play in the league last season, but somehow still managed seven wins behind an otherwise loaded squad. While the offense may have tons of talent and experience, it remains to be seen if the offensive line can keep Rodgers upright for the season.

Buffalo is still clearly the team to beat in the East. But with everyone eager to see what Rodgers can still be capable of, the league has a great Monday Night Football matchup to kick off the season for these teams.

Cowboys at Giants:

Turning to the other East division, the Sunday Night game features two division rivals in the Dallas Cowboys against the New York Giants. Both teams made the playoffs last season and are hoping to build on that this season.

A major story throughout the offseason was disgruntled running backs, with the Giants’ Saquon Barkley playing a major part in the story. Running backs across the league expressed a lot of frustration and anger this offseason at their diminished salaries and the lack of long term deals. After being tagged with the franchise tag, Barkley signed a 1-year deal for $11 million, much smaller than Barkley hoped. However, if the Giants want to improve this year and compete for the NFC East title, they need Barkley to be at his best.

Expect the Cowboys to secure the win. The Cowboys returned many key players from last year’s 4th ranked offense, and it will be too much for the Giants to contain.