Pro Football History.com Blog
January 7th, 2026
With the 2026 NFL Draft approaching, fan excitement is building as analysts, scouts, and front offices evaluate prospects and team needs at the very top of the board. Holding the number one pick brings enormous pressure, as a single decision can define a franchise for years to come.
As of early January 2026, the draft order at the top is largely defined, and discussion around the first selection has reached a level of intensity comparable to the speculation seen around an online casino jackpot run. The Las Vegas Raiders are positioned to select first overall after a difficult 2025 season, giving them a rare opportunity to reset the direction of the organization. The New York Jets are projected to follow closely behind, with several other rebuilding teams clustered near the top based on record and tiebreakers.
This draft class is viewed as a complex mix of promise and uncertainty. While there may not be a universally accepted generational prospect, teams see multiple players with legitimate star potential at premium positions. That lack of consensus is part of what makes this year’s draft especially compelling, as differing evaluations and philosophies could lead to very different outcomes on draft night.
Quarterback debate at the top
Quarterbacks remain the central focus when discussing the number one pick, and the Raiders’ roster situation only reinforces that trend. The franchise lacks a clear long term answer under center, making quarterback the most scrutinized position in the evaluation process.
Several passers are firmly in the conversation to be selected first overall. Among them is Fernando Mendoza, who has drawn attention for his combination of size, arm strength, and ability to operate within a structured offense. Evaluators praise his poise and leadership, traits that often carry significant weight during draft interviews and meetings.
Another frequently mentioned prospect is Dante Moore, whose game is built around accuracy, mobility, and decision making. Moore’s ability to distribute the ball quickly and extend plays when necessary appeals to teams that favor timing based offensive systems. Meanwhile, quarterbacks such as Ty Simpson remain under close evaluation as teams assess raw upside versus immediate readiness.
What complicates the decision is the absence of a clear cut top quarterback. Some scouts believe the class lacks a guaranteed franchise changer, while others argue that the right development environment could elevate one of these prospects into a long term starter. That internal debate could influence whether the first pick is ultimately used on a quarterback or redirected elsewhere.
Impact players beyond the quarterbacks
Although quarterbacks dominate most early draft conversations, the 2026 class includes several non quarterback prospects worthy of serious consideration near the top. Defensive players, in particular, are generating strong interest due to their potential to impact games immediately.
Edge rushers and defensive backs headline this group. Players such as Rueben Bain Jr. and Caleb Downs are widely viewed as foundational defenders. Their ability to disrupt offenses, create turnovers, and lead from day one makes them attractive options for teams seeking stability rather than risk.
Offensive linemen and wide receivers also rank highly on many draft boards. Securing elite protection in the trenches or a true number one receiving option can transform an offense, especially for teams that believe quarterback solutions can be found later in the draft or through alternative means.
How team priorities shape draft strategy
The identity and situation of the team holding the first pick often matter as much as the talent available. For the Raiders, quarterback need is impossible to ignore, but modern front offices are increasingly cautious about forcing a selection simply because of positional value.
Trade scenarios remain very much in play. A quarterback desperate team could attempt to move up, offering future draft capital in exchange for control of the first pick. Such a move would allow the Raiders to accelerate a broader rebuild while shifting the risk of selecting a quarterback to another franchise.
Ultimately, the top of the draft will reflect each team’s appetite for risk and belief in its evaluation process. Whether the first pick becomes a franchise quarterback, a defensive cornerstone, or the centerpiece of a major trade, the opening of the 2026 NFL Draft promises debate, unpredictability, and long term consequences for the teams involved.
December 30th, 2025
Professional football in the 1920s was a rough, unstable, and largely unregulated sport that barely resembled the modern NFL, yet these chaotic early years laid the foundation for everything the league would become.
When people think of the NFL today, they imagine massive stadiums, nationwide television deals, and athletes treated as global stars. In the 1920s, professional football was none of those things. It was a fledgling enterprise struggling for legitimacy, competing with college football for attention, and constantly fighting financial collapse. Teams came and went, players earned modest wages, and the rules of the game were still evolving. Even modern entertainment brands like Bigclash operate in a vastly more stable and regulated environment than early professional football ever did. Understanding how the NFL looked in the 1920s provides crucial context for how professional football survived its most fragile decade and slowly transformed into a national institution.
A League Still Finding Its Identity
The NFL began life in 1920 under the name American Professional Football Association, only adopting the NFL name in 1922. Even then, it barely resembled a unified league. Teams were concentrated in small Midwestern industrial towns rather than major cities. Places like Canton, Akron, Dayton, and Rock Island were central to professional football, while New York and Los Angeles played little or no role early on.
There was no standardized schedule. Teams often played different numbers of games, and championships were determined by league votes rather than a playoff system. Some teams scheduled games against non league opponents, including local clubs and college teams, and those results sometimes counted and sometimes did not. The lack of structure made standings confusing and occasionally controversial.
League leadership focused more on survival than growth. Meetings often centered on preventing teams from stealing players under contract and maintaining some basic competitive integrity. The idea of national expansion or long term planning was secondary to keeping teams solvent from one season to the next.
Players, Pay, and a Brutal Style of Play
NFL players in the 1920s were far from full time professionals. Most held regular jobs in factories, businesses, or farms and played football on weekends for extra income. Pay varied widely, but many players earned between fifty and one hundred dollars per game, with stars receiving slightly more. There were no long term contracts or guarantees, and players frequently moved between teams within the same season.
The game itself was extremely physical and often dangerous. Equipment was minimal, with leather helmets offering limited protection and little padding elsewhere. Injuries were common, and medical care was rudimentary by modern standards. Substitutions were restricted, meaning players often stayed on the field for entire games, playing both offense and defense.
Strategy was conservative and run heavy. The forward pass existed but was tightly regulated and viewed as risky. Offenses focused on brute strength, misdirection, and endurance rather than speed or creativity. Games were often low scoring and played in poor conditions, especially late in the season.
Public Perception and the Fight for Respectability
One of the biggest challenges facing the NFL in the 1920s was public perception. College football dominated the sporting landscape and was widely seen as more respectable and exciting. Professional football was often viewed as inferior, even unethical, due to the idea that athletes were being paid to play.
To combat this image, the league made several high profile moves. The signing of college superstar Red Grange in 1925 brought unprecedented attention to professional football. Grange’s barnstorming tours drew large crowds and demonstrated that pro football could attract national interest when marketed effectively.
Still, attendance remained inconsistent, and many teams folded due to financial losses. Franchises like the Hammond Pros and the Tonawanda Kardex lasted only briefly, while others relocated or rebranded multiple times. In contrast to today’s digital platforms that can reach over 30 million active users, early professional football relied almost entirely on local support and word of mouth. Stability was rare, and success often depended on strong local backing rather than league support.
December 29th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
If you spend enough time digging into sports analytics, you’ll eventually stumble across the Elo rating — a deceptively simple formula born not in a football stadium or a Vegas sportsbook, but across the quiet tables of mid-century chess tournaments.
Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physics professor, created the system to measure skill levels among chess players. His idea was brilliant in its simplicity: each player has a rating, and that rating goes up when they win and down when they lose. But the amount it moves depends on the expectation. Beat someone you were supposed to beat? You gain a little. Upset a favorite? You gain a lot.
That core principle, that every contest both confirms and challenges our expectations, makes Elo a perfect fit for sports, especially football. And the unpredictability of the NFL season mirrors the experience at skycrown casino, where outcomes can swing just as quickly as a late-game touchdown.
Why Elo Works for the NFL
Football isn’t chess, of course. In chess, there are only the opponents’ skills to consider. However, in the NFL, there is far more complexity at play. There are home crowds, weather, travel, injuries, free agency, and coaching changes. Yet, underneath all that chaos, there’s still an underlying truth we’re trying to measure: how good is this team?
That’s what Elo ranks gives us. It’s a living number that reflects a team’s strength at any given moment. Every game shifts those numbers slightly, and over time, those shifts tell a story of dynasties building, of underdogs rising, and of powerhouses fading.
But applying Elo to the NFL takes a few tweaks to help accommodate these changes.
The Home-Field Advantage Factor
Home-field advantage is one of the most reliable forces in sports. The home team benefits from loud crowds that make opposing communication more difficult. All those audibles a quarterback needs to make now may have to rely on silent signals, otherwise you run the risk of a wide receiver running the wrong route. Research into multiple sports has even shown that referees are more likely to favor the home team with calls.
Teams may also benefit from familiar surroundings, whether that’s understanding how the wind may swirl on kickoffs in a particular endzone or by stadium designs that have the sunny midday heat bake the opposing sideline (while the home side stays nice and shaded). Another way the familiar setting can benefit teams is by inclement weather.
Lastly, travel fatigue for visitors all add up. As teams fly from coast to coast, their internal body clocks can be slow to adjust.
To capture all these considerations, our Elo models bake in a fixed boost for the home team. From the kickoff, we spot the home team a 65-point Elo boost, roughly the difference between a .500 team and a playoff contender. The model is saying: All else equal, you probably don’t want to play in Arrowhead in December.
Resetting the Board: Offseason Regression
Chess players don’t retire between rounds. NFL players do.
Each offseason, teams change. Coaches are replaced, stars retire, and GMs reshuffle the roster. Even when a team looks the same on paper, regression to the mean is a powerful force. Last year’s breakout team might not sustain their edge; a struggling franchise might quietly build back.
To reflect this reality, our Elo score doesn’t start each new season where it left off. Instead, it pulls every team slightly toward the league average. In our model, we have set this value to 10%. It’s a mathematical way of saying, “Let’s not assume last year’s magic (or misery) lasts forever.”
When John Elway retired after leading Denver to back-to-back Super Bowls, the Broncos weren’t the same team, even if many faces remained. Our Elo rating captures that subtle truth, not by overreacting, but by acknowledging change entering the 1999 season.
The K-Factor: How Fast Things Can Change
In Elo, the K-value decides how quickly ratings respond to new information.
A high K means rapid swings, where one big win can launch you up the charts. A low K means ratings move slowly, smoothing over week-to-week noise. Finding the right balance matters, especially in a 17-game season. For our model, we have an input value of 50.
Sometimes, the right answer is to move quickly. Take 2008, when Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1. With Brady, the Patriots were one of the greatest teams ever assembled. Without him, they missed the playoffs that year after an 11-5 season. Another example is when Peyton Manning missed the 2011 season with a neck injury, plunging the Colts from Super Bowl contenders to a 2-14 season. Fans watching their team instantly knew these teams would not be as good as the prior season, but any Elo model can only adapt as fast as the K-value allows.
So How Well Does It Work?
Pretty well, actually. Across NFL history, teams with the higher Elo rating, once home-field advantage is factored in, win about 60% of the time. That’s a solid baseline for a one-number measure of strength. Undoubtably the predictive power of the model would grow as we add more factors into the decision. Will the weather play a role? Is there a key injury or suspension that shifts the expected winner?
Why Elo Is More Than Just a Number
Beyond predictions, Elo is a time machine. It gives us a way to compare across eras — not by yards or wins, but by dominance relative to peers.
Could the 1985 Bears’ defense stop the 1999 Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf”? No simulation can tell us definitively, but Elo gives us a framework for the debate. It places both teams on the same mathematical scale, letting us measure their greatness in context.
And it shines a light on history’s biggest surprises, too. When the 2007 Giants upset the 18–0 Patriots in the Super Bowl, it wasn’t just a dramatic moment — it was one of the most statistically improbable upsets in NFL history. Elo can tell us exactly how improbable.
What Comes Next?
This is just the foundation. Over the coming articles, we’ll explore Elo stories; how teams rise and fall, how rivalries shift over decades, and how those numbers can help us simulate “what if” matchups that never were.
We’ll go inside the data to see when a dynasty truly begins, how momentum shifts during a season, and why even the smallest upsets can echo across years of ratings.
Elo isn’t just a formula, it’s a way to translate the chaos of the NFL into something measurable, comparable, and, in its own way, poetic.
December 25th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
With Week 16 in the books, we are nearing the end of the regular season. The race for the top seed in the AFC tightened this week with the Denver Broncos dropping their game against the Jaguars as every other playoff team claimed a victory this week.
While we have an exciting full slate of games this week, with games on four days of the week upcoming week, fans can check out melbet login tanzania for any gaming fun on the NFL’s off days.
#1 Denver Broncos
The current #1 seed in the AFC is the Denver Broncos, tied in a virtual dead-heat with the New England Patriots with two games to go. While they have the same record (12-3), the Broncos have a better win percentage in shared games, giving them the slight edge. The Broncos fell this week against the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20, leading to the Broncos having to win their remaining games to continue to have a shot at the bye week in the playoffs.
While the seeding isn’t set, the Broncos have clinched at least a wildcard spot in the playoffs. They will go on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, who are now reeling after losing yet another quarterback to an ACL injury.
#2 New England Patriots
Hot on the heels of the Broncos are the New England Patriots who just clinched their first 12-win regular season ever in franchise history without Tom Brady. The Patriots went on the road this week to beat the Baltimore Ravens 28-24 to clinch a playoff berth. MVP contender Drake Maye threw for a career high 380 yards while the Patriots while being nearly perfect in the fourth quarter (12-14 for 139 yards). The Ravens tried to overcome losing two-time MVP Lamar Jackson in only the second quarter to a back injury, and his replacement Tyler Huntley was a very efficient backup. However, in the end, the Ravens defense wasn’t able to keep them out of the end zone when it mattered.
The Patriots will travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets this weekend and can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Buffalo loss.
#3 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars traveled to beat the Denver Broncos 34-20 in one of Trevor Lawrence’s best games of his career. Throwing three touchdowns, and adding one more with his legs, to move one game behind the Broncos and Patriots for the #1 seed. The Jaguars hot streak right now has also given rise to rookie head coach Liam Coen’s bid for Coach of the Year, who has already secured a seven game improvement over 2024 for the team and their best record since at least 2007.
The Jaguars will go on the road and face the Indianapolis Colts this week, with the Colts holding on to the slimmest of hopes for a wildcard berth.
#4 Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have almost clinched the AFC North title over the Baltimore Ravens with their win over the Detroit Lions this week. The Steelers won 29-24 against the now-struggling Lions, who have now dropped to 8-7 and are on the verge of playoff elimination. However, the Steelers will be going the rest of the regular season without wide receiver DK Metcalf, who was suspended by the league after a fan altercation. The victory was not without controversy on the field, where the Lions’ possible game-winning touchdown was negated by an offensive pass interference penalty.
The Steelers will travel to Cleveland this week to face the Browns and try to clinch their first division title in five seasons.
#5 Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers continued on their playoff-bound path this week with a 34-17 victory against the Dallas Cowboys. With this victory, the Chargers officially knocked the Cowboys out of playoff contention while almost clinching their own wildcard berth. However, they have much bigger things in mind than a wildcard. The Chargers sit one game behind the Broncos with two weeks remaining in the season.
The Chargers looked sharp against the Cowboys, scoring in each quarter with Justin Herbert throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another touchdown with his legs. Not only that, but the team’s 452 offensive yards was their season high. The team returns home to face the Houston Texans on Saturday.
#6 Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills traveled to Cleveland to beat the Browns 23-20 to keep their slim AFC East hopes alive. The bright spot for the Bills was running back James Cook III who rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns on the day. All three of their touchdowns came on the ground, with Josh Allen only contributing 130 yards of offense through the air. The defense helped keep the Browns offense in check by forcing two interceptions on the day.
The Bills will host the NFC East champions Philadelphia Eagles this week.
#7 Houston Texans
The final playoff spot falls to the Houston Texans, coming off a 23-21 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Texans extended their win streak to seven games to keep them one-game back in the AFC South race. They will need help though to overcome the Jaguars. The Texans top-ranked defense in the league continued to lead the way for the team while handing the Raiders their ninth straight loss in Pete Carrol’s first season as head coach for the team.
The Texans will travel West to take on the Chargers this Saturday.
Teams Eliminated: Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and the Las Vegas Raiders
December 15th, 2025
The 2025/26 NFL season is coming to close, with just a couple of game weeks remaining - and there's still many playoff spots to fight for. In fact, none of the eight NFL divisions has a mathematically guaranteed winner even at this late stage in the season. But what have been the biggest surprise packages of this highly competitive year so far?
The main surprises of the season have mostly been quarterback related. A few teams have had surprise turnarounds, and a few teams have fallen off. Things are looking quite different now than they were in the early weeks, with some early MVP contenders dropping off in form and others gathering pace. These, are three of the biggest surprise stories so far.
The Kansas City Chiefs Have Fallen Off Hard - How Did that Happen?
Although in the preseason many thought the dominant era of the Chiefs might be on the decline, few will have predicted just how far they've fallen this year. After winning the AFC West nine years in a row, at 6-7 the Chiefs are now mathematically out of the running for the division title and face a difficult battle to even make the playoffs.
Interestingly this fall off comes just as Missouri legalized sports betting - meaning a fair few Chiefs fans will have likely already lost money betting on their team. Since the market opened on December 1, the Chiefs have played one game - a shock 10-20 home defeat to the Houston Texans. At least sports betting Chiefs fans can console themselves with DraftKings Missouri sign-up promotion details, listed with expert analysis of the very best options.
The Chiefs were especially known for their tight execution, making the most of their chances in key moments during one-score games - but this season those games have gone 0-5 against them. A combination of the decline of the formerly imperious Patrick Mahomes (who threw 10 intercepted or missed passes in a row against the Texans in game week 15) and defensive lapses have cost the Chiefs in vital moments, and this has undoubtedly been their worst season in years.
Sam Darnold Pushed the Seahawks to the Strong Playoff Contenders
While the Chiefs are a team on the spinout with a declining legend at quarterback, one of the big surprises of the season has been The Seattle Seahawks and their new QB Sam Darnold. Having not won a division title since 2014, the Seahawks' 10-3 record in the NFC West sees them well in contention with only a few games to go.
The Seattle team has had an unexpectedly explosive offence this year, including the recent 37-9 blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons to hit the 10 win mark. And a lot of that success has come through Sam Darnold. At his fifth team in six years, Darnold had a breakout season with the Minnesota Vikings last year - but few expected him to light it up as much as he has in the Pacific Northwest. He has compiled 3,162 passing yards and 22 touchdown passes so far, with a passing rating of 103.8 putting him among the league's best.
Although the Seahawks' remaining scheduled games mean contending with late-season Super Bowl favorites the Los Angeles Rams for their division title, they currently have the momentum with three straight wins and shouldn't be counted out just yet.
Drake Maye Has Stepped up as the New England Patriots Rebound
After back-to-back losing seasons in the AFC East, the Patriots have come back in 2025 with a bang. They currently have the best record in the League at 11-2, and a lot of that is down to the heroics of second-year QB Drake Maye.
In fact, his performances this season have already seen him take a franchise record formerly held by the one most legendary quarterbacks in NFL history Tom Brady. He’s thrown for over 3,400 yards with 23 touchdowns and just six interceptions, across the longest streak in Patriots' history of consecutive 200+ yard, 100+ rating games.
The Patriots' resurgence has obviously also influenced by the arrival of new head coach Mike Vrabel, who few expected to have such an immediate impact. Although not winning anything in his four seasons in charge of the Tennessee Titans, Vrabel did lead them to four winning seasons in a row - the kind of stability that the Patriots sorely needed as they look to get back to the dynastic form of a decade ago.
As a former Patriots line-backer himself, Vrabel knows the systems that helped the Patriots to win three Super Bowls between 2014 and 2018 and he has instilled some of that in team. In fact even Brady himself has had big praise for Maye, saying that he sees the new Patriots system as fitting the quarterback perfectly - just as it did for him in his day.