January 7th, 2026
With the 2026 NFL Draft approaching, fan excitement is building as analysts, scouts, and front offices evaluate prospects and team needs at the very top of the board. Holding the number one pick brings enormous pressure, as a single decision can define a franchise for years to come.
As of early January 2026, the draft order at the top is largely defined, and discussion around the first selection has reached a level of intensity comparable to the speculation seen around an online casino jackpot run. The Las Vegas Raiders are positioned to select first overall after a difficult 2025 season, giving them a rare opportunity to reset the direction of the organization. The New York Jets are projected to follow closely behind, with several other rebuilding teams clustered near the top based on record and tiebreakers.
This draft class is viewed as a complex mix of promise and uncertainty. While there may not be a universally accepted generational prospect, teams see multiple players with legitimate star potential at premium positions. That lack of consensus is part of what makes this year’s draft especially compelling, as differing evaluations and philosophies could lead to very different outcomes on draft night.
Quarterback debate at the top
Quarterbacks remain the central focus when discussing the number one pick, and the Raiders’ roster situation only reinforces that trend. The franchise lacks a clear long term answer under center, making quarterback the most scrutinized position in the evaluation process.
Several passers are firmly in the conversation to be selected first overall. Among them is Fernando Mendoza, who has drawn attention for his combination of size, arm strength, and ability to operate within a structured offense. Evaluators praise his poise and leadership, traits that often carry significant weight during draft interviews and meetings.
Another frequently mentioned prospect is Dante Moore, whose game is built around accuracy, mobility, and decision making. Moore’s ability to distribute the ball quickly and extend plays when necessary appeals to teams that favor timing based offensive systems. Meanwhile, quarterbacks such as Ty Simpson remain under close evaluation as teams assess raw upside versus immediate readiness.
What complicates the decision is the absence of a clear cut top quarterback. Some scouts believe the class lacks a guaranteed franchise changer, while others argue that the right development environment could elevate one of these prospects into a long term starter. That internal debate could influence whether the first pick is ultimately used on a quarterback or redirected elsewhere.
Impact players beyond the quarterbacks
Although quarterbacks dominate most early draft conversations, the 2026 class includes several non quarterback prospects worthy of serious consideration near the top. Defensive players, in particular, are generating strong interest due to their potential to impact games immediately.
Edge rushers and defensive backs headline this group. Players such as Rueben Bain Jr. and Caleb Downs are widely viewed as foundational defenders. Their ability to disrupt offenses, create turnovers, and lead from day one makes them attractive options for teams seeking stability rather than risk.
Offensive linemen and wide receivers also rank highly on many draft boards. Securing elite protection in the trenches or a true number one receiving option can transform an offense, especially for teams that believe quarterback solutions can be found later in the draft or through alternative means.
How team priorities shape draft strategy
The identity and situation of the team holding the first pick often matter as much as the talent available. For the Raiders, quarterback need is impossible to ignore, but modern front offices are increasingly cautious about forcing a selection simply because of positional value.
Trade scenarios remain very much in play. A quarterback desperate team could attempt to move up, offering future draft capital in exchange for control of the first pick. Such a move would allow the Raiders to accelerate a broader rebuild while shifting the risk of selecting a quarterback to another franchise.
Ultimately, the top of the draft will reflect each team’s appetite for risk and belief in its evaluation process. Whether the first pick becomes a franchise quarterback, a defensive cornerstone, or the centerpiece of a major trade, the opening of the 2026 NFL Draft promises debate, unpredictability, and long term consequences for the teams involved.