Pro Football History.com Blog
December 29th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
If you spend enough time digging into sports analytics, you’ll eventually stumble across the Elo rating — a deceptively simple formula born not in a football stadium or a Vegas sportsbook, but across the quiet tables of mid-century chess tournaments.
Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physics professor, created the system to measure skill levels among chess players. His idea was brilliant in its simplicity: each player has a rating, and that rating goes up when they win and down when they lose. But the amount it moves depends on the expectation. Beat someone you were supposed to beat? You gain a little. Upset a favorite? You gain a lot.
That core principle, that every contest both confirms and challenges our expectations, makes Elo a perfect fit for sports, especially football. And the unpredictability of the NFL season mirrors the experience at skycrown casino, where outcomes can swing just as quickly as a late-game touchdown.
Why Elo Works for the NFL
Football isn’t chess, of course. In chess, there are only the opponents’ skills to consider. However, in the NFL, there is far more complexity at play. There are home crowds, weather, travel, injuries, free agency, and coaching changes. Yet, underneath all that chaos, there’s still an underlying truth we’re trying to measure: how good is this team?
That’s what Elo ranks gives us. It’s a living number that reflects a team’s strength at any given moment. Every game shifts those numbers slightly, and over time, those shifts tell a story of dynasties building, of underdogs rising, and of powerhouses fading.
But applying Elo to the NFL takes a few tweaks to help accommodate these changes.
The Home-Field Advantage Factor
Home-field advantage is one of the most reliable forces in sports. The home team benefits from loud crowds that make opposing communication more difficult. All those audibles a quarterback needs to make now may have to rely on silent signals, otherwise you run the risk of a wide receiver running the wrong route. Research into multiple sports has even shown that referees are more likely to favor the home team with calls.
Teams may also benefit from familiar surroundings, whether that’s understanding how the wind may swirl on kickoffs in a particular endzone or by stadium designs that have the sunny midday heat bake the opposing sideline (while the home side stays nice and shaded). Another way the familiar setting can benefit teams is by inclement weather.
Lastly, travel fatigue for visitors all add up. As teams fly from coast to coast, their internal body clocks can be slow to adjust.
To capture all these considerations, our Elo models bake in a fixed boost for the home team. From the kickoff, we spot the home team a 65-point Elo boost, roughly the difference between a .500 team and a playoff contender. The model is saying: All else equal, you probably don’t want to play in Arrowhead in December.
Resetting the Board: Offseason Regression
Chess players don’t retire between rounds. NFL players do.
Each offseason, teams change. Coaches are replaced, stars retire, and GMs reshuffle the roster. Even when a team looks the same on paper, regression to the mean is a powerful force. Last year’s breakout team might not sustain their edge; a struggling franchise might quietly build back.
To reflect this reality, our Elo score doesn’t start each new season where it left off. Instead, it pulls every team slightly toward the league average. In our model, we have set this value to 10%. It’s a mathematical way of saying, “Let’s not assume last year’s magic (or misery) lasts forever.”
When John Elway retired after leading Denver to back-to-back Super Bowls, the Broncos weren’t the same team, even if many faces remained. Our Elo rating captures that subtle truth, not by overreacting, but by acknowledging change entering the 1999 season.
The K-Factor: How Fast Things Can Change
In Elo, the K-value decides how quickly ratings respond to new information.
A high K means rapid swings, where one big win can launch you up the charts. A low K means ratings move slowly, smoothing over week-to-week noise. Finding the right balance matters, especially in a 17-game season. For our model, we have an input value of 50.
Sometimes, the right answer is to move quickly. Take 2008, when Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1. With Brady, the Patriots were one of the greatest teams ever assembled. Without him, they missed the playoffs that year after an 11-5 season. Another example is when Peyton Manning missed the 2011 season with a neck injury, plunging the Colts from Super Bowl contenders to a 2-14 season. Fans watching their team instantly knew these teams would not be as good as the prior season, but any Elo model can only adapt as fast as the K-value allows.
So How Well Does It Work?
Pretty well, actually. Across NFL history, teams with the higher Elo rating, once home-field advantage is factored in, win about 60% of the time. That’s a solid baseline for a one-number measure of strength. Undoubtably the predictive power of the model would grow as we add more factors into the decision. Will the weather play a role? Is there a key injury or suspension that shifts the expected winner?
Why Elo Is More Than Just a Number
Beyond predictions, Elo is a time machine. It gives us a way to compare across eras — not by yards or wins, but by dominance relative to peers.
Could the 1985 Bears’ defense stop the 1999 Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf”? No simulation can tell us definitively, but Elo gives us a framework for the debate. It places both teams on the same mathematical scale, letting us measure their greatness in context.
And it shines a light on history’s biggest surprises, too. When the 2007 Giants upset the 18–0 Patriots in the Super Bowl, it wasn’t just a dramatic moment — it was one of the most statistically improbable upsets in NFL history. Elo can tell us exactly how improbable.
What Comes Next?
This is just the foundation. Over the coming articles, we’ll explore Elo stories; how teams rise and fall, how rivalries shift over decades, and how those numbers can help us simulate “what if” matchups that never were.
We’ll go inside the data to see when a dynasty truly begins, how momentum shifts during a season, and why even the smallest upsets can echo across years of ratings.
Elo isn’t just a formula, it’s a way to translate the chaos of the NFL into something measurable, comparable, and, in its own way, poetic.
December 25th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
With Week 16 in the books, we are nearing the end of the regular season. The race for the top seed in the AFC tightened this week with the Denver Broncos dropping their game against the Jaguars as every other playoff team claimed a victory this week.
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#1 Denver Broncos
The current #1 seed in the AFC is the Denver Broncos, tied in a virtual dead-heat with the New England Patriots with two games to go. While they have the same record (12-3), the Broncos have a better win percentage in shared games, giving them the slight edge. The Broncos fell this week against the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20, leading to the Broncos having to win their remaining games to continue to have a shot at the bye week in the playoffs.
While the seeding isn’t set, the Broncos have clinched at least a wildcard spot in the playoffs. They will go on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, who are now reeling after losing yet another quarterback to an ACL injury.
#2 New England Patriots
Hot on the heels of the Broncos are the New England Patriots who just clinched their first 12-win regular season ever in franchise history without Tom Brady. The Patriots went on the road this week to beat the Baltimore Ravens 28-24 to clinch a playoff berth. MVP contender Drake Maye threw for a career high 380 yards while the Patriots while being nearly perfect in the fourth quarter (12-14 for 139 yards). The Ravens tried to overcome losing two-time MVP Lamar Jackson in only the second quarter to a back injury, and his replacement Tyler Huntley was a very efficient backup. However, in the end, the Ravens defense wasn’t able to keep them out of the end zone when it mattered.
The Patriots will travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets this weekend and can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Buffalo loss.
#3 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars traveled to beat the Denver Broncos 34-20 in one of Trevor Lawrence’s best games of his career. Throwing three touchdowns, and adding one more with his legs, to move one game behind the Broncos and Patriots for the #1 seed. The Jaguars hot streak right now has also given rise to rookie head coach Liam Coen’s bid for Coach of the Year, who has already secured a seven game improvement over 2024 for the team and their best record since at least 2007.
The Jaguars will go on the road and face the Indianapolis Colts this week, with the Colts holding on to the slimmest of hopes for a wildcard berth.
#4 Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have almost clinched the AFC North title over the Baltimore Ravens with their win over the Detroit Lions this week. The Steelers won 29-24 against the now-struggling Lions, who have now dropped to 8-7 and are on the verge of playoff elimination. However, the Steelers will be going the rest of the regular season without wide receiver DK Metcalf, who was suspended by the league after a fan altercation. The victory was not without controversy on the field, where the Lions’ possible game-winning touchdown was negated by an offensive pass interference penalty.
The Steelers will travel to Cleveland this week to face the Browns and try to clinch their first division title in five seasons.
#5 Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers continued on their playoff-bound path this week with a 34-17 victory against the Dallas Cowboys. With this victory, the Chargers officially knocked the Cowboys out of playoff contention while almost clinching their own wildcard berth. However, they have much bigger things in mind than a wildcard. The Chargers sit one game behind the Broncos with two weeks remaining in the season.
The Chargers looked sharp against the Cowboys, scoring in each quarter with Justin Herbert throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another touchdown with his legs. Not only that, but the team’s 452 offensive yards was their season high. The team returns home to face the Houston Texans on Saturday.
#6 Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills traveled to Cleveland to beat the Browns 23-20 to keep their slim AFC East hopes alive. The bright spot for the Bills was running back James Cook III who rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns on the day. All three of their touchdowns came on the ground, with Josh Allen only contributing 130 yards of offense through the air. The defense helped keep the Browns offense in check by forcing two interceptions on the day.
The Bills will host the NFC East champions Philadelphia Eagles this week.
#7 Houston Texans
The final playoff spot falls to the Houston Texans, coming off a 23-21 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Texans extended their win streak to seven games to keep them one-game back in the AFC South race. They will need help though to overcome the Jaguars. The Texans top-ranked defense in the league continued to lead the way for the team while handing the Raiders their ninth straight loss in Pete Carrol’s first season as head coach for the team.
The Texans will travel West to take on the Chargers this Saturday.
Teams Eliminated: Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and the Las Vegas Raiders
December 15th, 2025
The 2025/26 NFL season is coming to close, with just a couple of game weeks remaining - and there's still many playoff spots to fight for. In fact, none of the eight NFL divisions has a mathematically guaranteed winner even at this late stage in the season. But what have been the biggest surprise packages of this highly competitive year so far?
The main surprises of the season have mostly been quarterback related. A few teams have had surprise turnarounds, and a few teams have fallen off. Things are looking quite different now than they were in the early weeks, with some early MVP contenders dropping off in form and others gathering pace. These, are three of the biggest surprise stories so far.
The Kansas City Chiefs Have Fallen Off Hard - How Did that Happen?
Although in the preseason many thought the dominant era of the Chiefs might be on the decline, few will have predicted just how far they've fallen this year. After winning the AFC West nine years in a row, at 6-7 the Chiefs are now mathematically out of the running for the division title and face a difficult battle to even make the playoffs.
Interestingly this fall off comes just as Missouri legalized sports betting - meaning a fair few Chiefs fans will have likely already lost money betting on their team. Since the market opened on December 1, the Chiefs have played one game - a shock 10-20 home defeat to the Houston Texans. At least sports betting Chiefs fans can console themselves with DraftKings Missouri sign-up promotion details, listed with expert analysis of the very best options.
The Chiefs were especially known for their tight execution, making the most of their chances in key moments during one-score games - but this season those games have gone 0-5 against them. A combination of the decline of the formerly imperious Patrick Mahomes (who threw 10 intercepted or missed passes in a row against the Texans in game week 15) and defensive lapses have cost the Chiefs in vital moments, and this has undoubtedly been their worst season in years.
Sam Darnold Pushed the Seahawks to the Strong Playoff Contenders
While the Chiefs are a team on the spinout with a declining legend at quarterback, one of the big surprises of the season has been The Seattle Seahawks and their new QB Sam Darnold. Having not won a division title since 2014, the Seahawks' 10-3 record in the NFC West sees them well in contention with only a few games to go.
The Seattle team has had an unexpectedly explosive offence this year, including the recent 37-9 blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons to hit the 10 win mark. And a lot of that success has come through Sam Darnold. At his fifth team in six years, Darnold had a breakout season with the Minnesota Vikings last year - but few expected him to light it up as much as he has in the Pacific Northwest. He has compiled 3,162 passing yards and 22 touchdown passes so far, with a passing rating of 103.8 putting him among the league's best.
Although the Seahawks' remaining scheduled games mean contending with late-season Super Bowl favorites the Los Angeles Rams for their division title, they currently have the momentum with three straight wins and shouldn't be counted out just yet.
Drake Maye Has Stepped up as the New England Patriots Rebound
After back-to-back losing seasons in the AFC East, the Patriots have come back in 2025 with a bang. They currently have the best record in the League at 11-2, and a lot of that is down to the heroics of second-year QB Drake Maye.
In fact, his performances this season have already seen him take a franchise record formerly held by the one most legendary quarterbacks in NFL history Tom Brady. He’s thrown for over 3,400 yards with 23 touchdowns and just six interceptions, across the longest streak in Patriots' history of consecutive 200+ yard, 100+ rating games.
The Patriots' resurgence has obviously also influenced by the arrival of new head coach Mike Vrabel, who few expected to have such an immediate impact. Although not winning anything in his four seasons in charge of the Tennessee Titans, Vrabel did lead them to four winning seasons in a row - the kind of stability that the Patriots sorely needed as they look to get back to the dynastic form of a decade ago.
As a former Patriots line-backer himself, Vrabel knows the systems that helped the Patriots to win three Super Bowls between 2014 and 2018 and he has instilled some of that in team. In fact even Brady himself has had big praise for Maye, saying that he sees the new Patriots system as fitting the quarterback perfectly - just as it did for him in his day.
December 11th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
With just a few weeks to go, the NFL MVP award is a competition between two quarterbacks remaining: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. As these quarterbacks continue leading their teams’ to the number one seed in their conference, other contenders last week have been fading from contention behind injuries, unexpected losses, and a general downturn in play. While we look at our updated MVP ranking for Week 14, consider looking at the melbet download apk to look at various games throughout the week.
Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams, Quarterback
Stafford continues to lead the way off the back of his best season of his seventeen year career. Stafford and the Rams got back to their winning ways this week with a 45-17 win over divisional rival Arizona Cardinals. Stafford threw another three touchdowns in victory, bringing his league leading total to 35 on the season. With four games to go, Stafford has a good chance of surpassing his career-high of 41.
But it’s not just touchdowns where he’s having one of his best seasons of his career. He’s also been more protective with the football in 2025. Last season was his career-low in interceptions for a full season (8), but through twelve games he’s only thrown four this season.
The Rams will need Stafford to continue his high level of play for the remainder of the season. The Seattle Seahawks are hot on the Rams’ tail for both the division lead and the first overall seed in the playoffs. The Rams have the tie-breaker currently based on their prior win in Week 11. The two rivals will face off in Week 16 for what could determine the first seed in the playoffs.
Drake Maye - New England Patriots, Quarterback
We continue to have Maye behind Stafford in the race for the MVP, it is still well within reach with a strong finish to his second NFL season. While Stafford may have the best personal story for the award, it will be hard for voters to deny the New England Patriots having the best team story for the award. This time last season, the Patriots were listless and one of the worst teams in the league. Less than a year later, the team has life and a bright future ahead of them. While new head coach Mike Vrabel will have a lot to do with that, it’s hard to deny the night-and-day impact of Maye’s improvement.
While improvement would be expected between someone’s first and second season, Maye is leading the league in completion percentage, second in passing yards, and has thrown eight more touchdowns than all of last season. And he has managed this while cutting down his interceptions. The Patriots will continue to leave some skeptical of how good they actually are this season because of their schedule, but the worst-to-first story in the AFC East is a compelling one for voters.
The Field
As the season draws closer to an end, the field of contenders has dramatically thinned. Perennial candidate Patrick Mahomes suffered one of his toughest losses of his career this week at home against Houston, all but eliminating him and the Chiefs from the playoffs for the first time in his career. Daniel Jones, once one of the most surprising stories of the 2025 NFL season, unfortunately tore his Achilles’ tendon this week, leading to a heartbreaking end to his season. And while reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills had a much-needed victory this week over the Bengals, his candidacy likely will only be boosted by a strong finish to the season with victories over the Patriots and the Eagles with four games to go. A strong finish like that could potentially move the team into yet another AFC East title, and with a little help, the first overall seed.
November 25th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
With Week 12 behind us, we have a new #1 seed in the NFC after the Los Angeles Rams won their ninth game of the year. There was quite a bit of movement in the NFC, with the top three playoff spots changing teams from Week 11. With the short week ahead for many teams, let’s look through the NFC standings.
And for all the college students out there in panic mode for finals, there is a college essay writing service without AI to help get you through the last few weeks. With that extra time, you may be able to find more time to watch an NFL game or two.
#1 - Los Angeles Rams (+2)
One week after taking over first place in the NFC West, the Rams have continued to move up in the NFC with a 34-7 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The victory has put the Rams at 9-2, good for the best record in the NFC. The Rams defense harassed Baker Mayfield into his worst game of the season, a 9-19 showing with one touchdown and two interceptions before exiting the game with a shoulder injury. The victory sent the Bucs to their fourth loss in five weeks, who are now only a half game up for the lead in the NFC SOUTH. The Rams will go on the road this week to face the Carolina Panthers.
#2 Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
The Philadelphia Eagles are reeling after a stunning loss to the Dallas Cowboys. After leading 21-0 in the second quarter, the Eagles gave up 24 unanswered points to lose to the Cowboys on a walkoff field goal by Brandon Aubrey. The Eagles lost after leading by at least 21 points for the first time since 1999, and the division loss makes it sting even more. The Eagles have a tough rebound game ahead when they host the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears on Friday.
#3 - Chicago Bears (-1)
Coming off a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bears continued their hold on the NFC North. The team won 31-28 after Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was a late scratch for the matchup. Bears fans would have rather had an opportunity to beat their old Packers’ foe, but will take the victory over backup quarterback Mason Rudolph. The Chicago Bears move down to third in the conference based on the tie breaker with the Eagles over the better win percentage in conference games, but they will have an opportunity to overtake them when they play each other on Friday.
#4 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The final division leader is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6-5. We previously remarked on the Buccaneers relatively easier path to the playoffs, but they have given up that lead with their third consecutive loss - this one at the hands of the #1 Rams. The Bucs' slide has given up their divisional lead and now sit only half a game above the Carolina Panthers. The Bucs will look to right the pirate ship next week against the Arizona Cardinals.
#5 - Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks continued to lead the NFC Wildcard chase with a 30-24 victory over the Tennessee Titans, who remain in the hunt for the first pick overall in April’s draft. The Seahawks played a clean game, giving up zero turnovers while wide receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba had yet another stellar game. Smith-Njigba had 167 yards receiving and two touchdowns, and his big day put him on pace for the first ever 2,000 yard receiving season in NFL history. The Seahawks will host the Minnesota Vikings this week, who may be without starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy after he entered the concussion protocol on Monday.
#6 - Green Bay Packers
The Packers held steady at the sixth seed in the NFC after a complete victory against their division rival, the Minnesota Vikings. The 23-6 victory was led by running back Emanuel Wilson’s first career start. Wilson carried the ball 28 times for two touchdowns. The defense forced three turnovers (two interceptions and one fumble) while sacking McCarthy five times. The Packers have a tough road test ahead on Thanksgiving Day, travelling to Detroit to take on the Lions.
#7 - San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers continued to hold the last wildcard after a 20-9 victory at home against the Carolina Panthers. It was a turnover-prone game, as the teams combined for five interceptions and one lost fumble. The best source of offense for the 49ers was former Panther Christian McCaffrey, who had 142 yards of offense and one touchdown. The 49ers will go on the road to face the Cleveland Browns next week.