Pro Football History.com Blog

March 11th, 2025

The final whistle blows, confetti falls, and a newly crowned champion holds up the Vince Lombardi Trophy somewhere in the depths of a stadium still thick with the smell of fireworks and spilled beer. It’s the culmination of months of brutal competition, split-second decisions, and tactics revised and re-revised. And yet, before the last interview is given before the players have even peeled off the celebratory t-shirts from their backs, somewhere—perhaps in a dimly lit office lined with monitors or a home study littered with stat sheets—sports betting analysts have already moved on.

Because for them, the Super Bowl is not an event. It’s part of a giant machine that never stops. The end of one season is just the beginning of another, the first chapter in a book they are already writing. Before the bookmakers release the odds, before even the draft has set the stage for the next generation of talent, the real work has begun. Algorithms are adjusting, historical data is being cross-referenced, and the search for patterns—those tiny nearly imperceptible clues that will unlock the future—is in full swing.

The Long View: Betting On The Future Before The Present Has Settled

For those on the outside, it may seem premature. The 2026 Super Bowl is a year away—who can know with any certainty which teams will be in the mix? The answer is nobody. But certainty is not the currency of sports betting; probability is. And probability, when looked at through the right tools, is a valuable commodity.

The analysts are not predicting the future as much as they are shaping it into something digestible, something that can be eaten, weighed and eventually wagered upon. They are tracking quarterback performances, injury histories, coaching tendencies and even the finer points of player contracts—who will be up for renewal, who might be tempted away by a bigger deal, whose form will peak or falter. The best sports betting apps already have their early odds up, not because the bookmakers know what will happen, but because they know what will be bet on.

Why Analysts Start So Early

To the naked eye, a Super Bowl-winning team looks like it emerges naturally, its path formed by the events of a given season. But analysts see something else. They see trends developing long before they become visible to the rest of us. A team’s salary cap situation may not mean much to a casual fan in February but to those who make their living from forecasting, it means everything. It determines who stays, who goes and—by extension—who wins.

And coaching hires and fires are not just backroom politics but the first domino in a chain reaction that could lead to a Super Bowl in one year. Hiring an innovative OC today might mean a record-breaking QB season in 12 months. A mediocre draft this year could mean trouble in 2025. The pieces are always moving and the smartest people in the room are watching them in real time.

The Rise of Data-Driven Betting

It wasn’t always this way. There was a time when sports betting was driven by gut feeling not insight, when intuition carried more weight than spreadsheets and predictive modelling. But those days are behind us. The rise of analytics in sports has changed everything and the betting world has followed. Now machine learning and complex statistical models are combing through decades of data looking for those 1-2% advantages that over time make all the difference.

This isn’t to say there’s no room for intuition. There will always be human judgment involved—nuances that numbers can’t capture. A team’s chemistry, the effect of a great leader, the chaos of a high-pressure moment—these are things that elude even the smartest models. But they are factored in nonetheless, woven into the probabilities in ways that attempt to quantify the unquantifiable.

What the Data Might Already Be Saying

While no one can say for certain which teams will be in the 2026 Super Bowl, the early signs are already showing. Powerhouse teams with young QBs and strong defense are the obvious contenders, teams with aging rosters and cap issues are already in the ‘outsider’ category. Analysts will be watching how teams draft, how they navigate free agency and how their 2025 schedule shapes up. They will note the teams that won close games and the ones that dominated, the teams that excel in key playoff-style metrics like 3rd down efficiency and red zone conversion rates.

Some teams will already be trending up and others will be slipping away, imperceptibly. That’s where the smart sports bettors make their move. The odds are best before the general public gets wise. Those who wait until next year to bet will do so at a disadvantage, their bets influenced by the narratives that have already been built rather than the raw probabilities that exist today.

Who are the Favourites to Win the Super Bowl 2026?

Predicting a Super Bowl winner this far in advance is always a mix of informed guesswork and gut instinct. Injuries, coaching changes, and unexpected breakouts will shape the season, but a few teams already stand out as early contenders.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles boast one of the most balanced rosters in the league, thanks to Howie Roseman’s smart roster-building. Their strengths include:

Offensive Firepower:

• Saquon Barkley (RB)
• A.J. Brown (WR)
• DeVonta Smith (WR)

Defensive Stars:

• Jalen Carter (DT)
• Nolan Smith Jr. (EDGE)

Key Question: Can they maintain offensive dominance now that coordinator Kellen Moore has moved on?

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens continue to ride the brilliance of Lamar Jackson, supported by a strong supporting cast:

Playmakers on Offense:

• Lamar Jackson (QB)
• Derrick Henry (RB)
• Zay Flowers (WR)

Defensive Anchors:

• Roquan Smith (LB)
• Kyle Hamilton (S)

Key Strength: A well-structured offense under Todd Monken, paired with a dominant defense.

Kansas City Chiefs

As long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are in Kansas City, they’ll remain in the mix. Their key assets include:

Offensive Core:

• Patrick Mahomes (QB)

• Xavier Worthy (WR)

• Rashee Rice (WR)

Defensive Strength: A strong core that has helped them stay competitive year after year.

X-Factor: Mahomes. His ability to elevate the team makes them a perennial contender, regardless of roster changes.

Who Will Come Out on Top? The Eagles have the most complete roster. The Ravens have a hungry superstar in Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs have Mahomes—which might be all they need.

But in the NFL, nothing is certain until the final whistle blows.

February 26th, 2025

By Stephen Juza

As we enter the 2025 NFL offseason, all the head coaching positions are finally filled. Kellen Moore was the last head coach to be hired, as the New Orleans Saints had to wait until Moore’s season with the Eagles was over before offering him the job. With the Eagles victory of the Chiefs, Moore was announced just a few short days later. With all seven spots now filled, how did each team do in finding the next leader for their team?

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#1 - Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears

After turning down opportunities to take a head coaching role last season, Ben Johnson was the top coaching prospect this offseason, and for good reason. After leading the explosive Lions offense to the top seed in the NFC, the Lions were fantastic from start to finish this regular season. Johnson has been instrumental in helping to turn around the Lions the last several years, and the Bears will hope that he can work his magic for another NFC North team. His big test will be working with second-year quarterback Caleb Williams in hopes that he can unleash his potential as a former top draft pick.

#2 - Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots

After sitting out the 2024 season, Vrabel returned to the NFL as the head coach of the New England Patriots. This offseason, it seemed like the most obvious landing spot for Vrabel, who spent many years playing for the Patriots during his career. Vrabel was a very good coach for the Titans for many years, leading the team to back-to-back division titles for the first time since the 1960s. One of the best coaching hires Vrabel made this offseason was bringing back Josh McDaniels to the team as their offensive coordinator. McDaniels has had great success as an offensive coordinator in the league, and working with Drake Maye will set up the franchise for the future.

#3 - Pete Carroll - Las Vegas Raiders

Another coach who sat out the 2024 season, Pete Carroll returns to the sidelines for his fourth NFL head coaching job. Carroll was fired after 2023’s season as the Seattle Seahawks head coach as the team had grown quite stagnant. Despite his early success with the team, he led the team to only three more playoff games in his last nine seasons in Seattle.

One thing that stands out with the AFC West now that Carroll is leading the Raiders - it may be the most impressive collection of head coaches in league history. All four in the division have won either a Super Bowl or a College Championship, and three have appeared in at least one more. All four coaches are accustomed to winning, so it will be an interesting division to watch as the teams try and navigate a murderer’s row of talent.

#4 - Kellen Moore - New Orleans Saints

Moore was the last one to be hired this offseason, with his fantastic offensive game plan for the Eagles taking them to victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Moore has been a good coach in the league for the last few years, but leaving the Cowboys after the 2022 season may have significantly boosted his career. After struggling in 2023 as the offensive coordinator for the Rams, he found his way to the Eagles. Now, the Saints hope he can instill his winning ways on the team. His first major task may be to find a new quarterback to lead the offense after he was non-committal in a recent interview about Carr’s role with the team.

#5 - Aaron Glenn - New York Jets

While Glenn was a top coaching prospect the last two cycles, we are a little hesitant on his success with the Jets. The biggest task facing Glenn on the Jets will be establishing some sort of offensive identity, and he will always have to outsource that responsibility to another coach. He’s tasked Tanner Engstrand, an up-and-coming coach he was previously with the Lions, but with the complete overhaul of the offense coming in the offseason, it could be a tall task for the coaching staff. The Jets consistently have hired defensive-minded head coaches, and it has led the offense to consistently be the weak link on the team.

#6 - Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Coen is certainly one of the hardest to gauge his success this offseason. Not only is he one of the least experienced coaches in the group, he’s not even held the same position for longer than a year since 2018-2019. It’s impossible to measure how he has been able to impact a team’s performance year-after-year because he has constantly jumped between the NFL and college the last several years. While that is a source of concern, his last season as offensive coordinator was a major success. The Buccaneers offense was one of the best in the league, so if he can bring that a little further north to Jacksonville, the team will be happy.

#7 - Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

Rounding out the list is Brian Schottenheimer. The long-time coach in the league felt like a desperate hire to try and maintain some level of consistency after Jerry Jones fumbled the negotiations with former head coach Mike McCarthy. It’s not just us who thinks it’s a risky hire - Jones said as much during the introductory press conference. Schottenheimer has been an exceedingly average coordinator much of his career, and the Cowboys should have had better success this offseason in finding their next coach. The Cowboys have several key playmakers locked down for several years, but their preferred choice as a head coach was Schottenheimer. We don’t expect him to coach out his four-year contract with the Cowboys.

February 11th, 2025

By Stephen Juza

Well, the Three-Peat wasn’t meant to be. From the beginning of the game, until the end, the Philadelphia Eagles dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday, one of the most impressive displays in recent Super Bowl memory. The Eagles victory was only the third victory in the last twenty years by more than 16 points.

There are many different ways to explain the dominance the Eagles displayed, but the final score was closer than the game ever was. Two Chiefs touchdowns in the last three minutes of the game, when they were already down 40-6, hardly caused a stir on the Eagles sideline. Backups finished the game while the starters soaked in the moment.

So what led to the domination for the Eagles?

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Time of Possession

All game long, the Eagles dominated the time of possession. Controlling the clock on offense was a key to success all season long. They won the time of possession battle in twelve of the seventeen games this season, and the Super Bowl was no different. The Eagles held the ball for 36:58 during the game, but not through their normal means. They only average 3.0 yards per rushing attempt, well below their season average. But the time spent on offense gave their time plenty of time to rest and recharge, which led to another area of domination.

Zero Blitzes, Six Sacks

One of the most absurd stats of the game was that the Eagles called their first blitz on the very final drive of the game. All game long, the Eagles defensive line was able to harass Patrick Mahomes to the tune of six sacks. Not only was this the most Mahomes has been sacked all season, it was the most he has been sacked in a single game in his career. He could never get comfortable in the pocket, and it led to errant passes even when he had time.

Pressure Leads To Turnovers

When Mahomes was worried about the pass rush, he was not able to dissect the secondary with his usual precision. Rather, the secondary picked him off twice, including the first ever pick-six for Mahomes in the playoffs. On top of interceptions, they also forced one strip-sack on a brutal third quarter hit where multiple defenders got their shot at Mahomes. Overall, this was only the second time this season that the Chiefs had three turnovers.

Eliminating Chiefs Playmakers

All game long, the Eagles eliminated Chiefs playmakers. The Chiefs were forced to be one-dimensional all game long, and it showed up in the box score. Running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for more than 1,000 yards during the regular season, but could only muster 16 against the Eagles on six rushes. Travis Kelce was held to zero catches in the first half - the first time that’s happened in his playoff career - and only four catches total. While two late scores gave the receivers a stat boost, it was far too little, far too late.

What’s next for the Eagles?

The Eagles success has attracted teams to Nick Sirianni's coaching staff, and this year was no different. It looks like offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be hired by the New Orleans Saints as their new head coach, giving the Eagles their fourth offensive coordinator in the last four years. But Siriani isn’t going anywhere, and the Eagles look set up to compete for a while longer.

February 9th, 2025

By Stephen Juza

Super Bowl LIX kicks off today at 6:30p.m. ET, and should be an incredibly exciting game to finish the 2024 NFL season. On one side of history, we have the Kansas City Chiefs seeking the first team to ever win three consecutive Super Bowls. On the other, we have the Philadelphia Eagles, looking for their second-ever Super Bowl victory.

These teams have shared history between them - they faced off in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Super Bowl LVII was a thrilling game down to the final seconds as the Chiefs won 38-35 on a Harrison Butker field goal with eight seconds remaining on the clock. Not only that, but current Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is also the winningest coach in Eagles history (130-93-1), and one of the best players in Eagles history (Jason Kelce) is the brother of one of the greatest players in Chiefs history (Travis Kelce).

While there is a lot of history between them, the game won’t be settled based on the past matchups. So who has the edge in Super Bowl LIX? What matchups will lead to a victory?

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Steve Spagnuola versus Saquon Barkley

Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley has put together one of the best seasons for a running back in NFL history: 2,005 yards rushing, with another 278 yards through the air, and 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing, 2 receiving). He’s the engine that makes the Eagles offense hum to the tune of the 7th ranked offense in the league. Only one other team put up as many rushing yards as the Eagles, taking substantial pressure off quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts is capable as a quarterback, but the Eagles rarely needed him to shine - no team threw fewer passes than the Eagles all season long.

Stopping the run is a tall order, but Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is up to the task. No coordinator has more Super Bowl victories (4) than Spagnuolo, and his defense was integral in one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets ever when the New York Giants ended the New England Patriots quest for a perfect season by holding the high-scoring offense to only 14 points.

The Chiefs defense was 8th overall in the league at stopping the run, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones and the defensive line will have to be at the top of their game to set the tone against the Eagles offensive line. Whoever wins here will set the tone for the game, leading us into our second key matchup.

Eagles Secondary versus Patrick Mahomes

While the Eagles offense runs through Barkley, the Chiefs offense runs through Mahomes. No one has had a more decorated start to their career than Mahomes, and the Chiefs certainly feel like they can never be counted out of the game with him under center. While the Chiefs had their best record of his career (15-2), it was certainly a down year for Mahomes. 2024 was the first year since he was named the starter that he was not named to the Pro Bowl, he tied a career-low for touchdown passes, and had his fewest passing yards in his career.

However, the Chiefs were never out of it. He led the league with seven game-winning drives in 2024, so as long as the ball is in his hands, the Chiefs are in the game. It will be up to the secondary - Quinyon Mitchell, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay, Jr., and Reed Blankenship - to slow down Mahomes. The defense has been great at limiting points and yards (ranked second and first in the league), but have also come away with 26 turnovers. Stealing possessions against the Chiefs to hand Barkley a short field to work with will be the recipe for victory for the Eagles.

Super Bowl Prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 24

I expect the Eagles to set the tone early behind Barkley to limit the number of possessions in this game. The fewer chances the Chiefs have, the better for the Eagles. The game will always feel nail-bitingly close despite the multi-score lead the Eagles will carry through much of the game, and ultimately the Chiefs comeback will fall short.

February 6th, 2025

You might wonder if first-time NFL head coaches are truly capable of transforming struggling franchises. The data suggests a compelling narrative of potential and strategic innovation, where new leadership can quickly reshape team dynamics. With average win improvements and fresh tactical approaches, these coaches challenge traditional expectations about organizational change. What drives their surprising success, and how do they manage to outperform seasoned veterans in such a competitive landscape? The answers might reshape your understanding of leadership in professional football.

Key Takeaways

• Rookie NFL head coaches improve team win totals by an average of 2.0, with 26 out of 40 coaches leading teams to better records.
• First-time coaches exhibit a 41.7% playoff likelihood and a .447 winning percentage, demonstrating significant potential for immediate team transformation.
• According to The 33rd Team, 68% of recent head coach hires were first-time NFL head coaches, signaling a league-wide trend valuing fresh perspectives and adaptability.
• Teams scoring under 18 PPG often experience dramatic improvements, with new coaches potentially generating up to 5.3 additional wins.
• Successful coaching trajectories show significant performance growth, with win rates increasing from 31.39% to 50.86% over three consecutive seasons.

First-Year Performance Metrics

The challenge of first-year NFL head coaches reveals a nuanced landscape of performance and potential.

When you look at the data, rookie coaches typically improve their team's win total by an average of 2.0 wins, with 26 out of 40 coaches leading teams to better records.

Your chances of success are even higher if your team previously scored less than 18 points per game, where improvements average 5.3 wins.

Notably, first-year head coaches are 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs compared to experienced coaches with new teams.

The point differential also plays an essential role, with teams outscored by 7.5 PPG showing remarkable resilience, consistently improving in their inaugural season under new leadership.

Defensive strategy can significantly influence a rookie head coach's first-year performance and team turnaround.

Historical Coaching Trends

Throughout NFL history, coaching trends have revealed fascinating patterns of success, longevity, and organizational decision-making. Veterans who struggle, winning three or fewer games, face a 75% likelihood of termination, while first-year coaches receive more organizational patience.

You'll notice that continuous improvement defines successful coaching trajectories, with win rates progressively increasing from 31.39% to 50.86% over three seasons.

The landscape increasingly favors younger, innovative coaches, with the average hire being 46.5 years old and bringing 19.5 years of diverse organizational experience.

Remarkably, 68% of recent head coach hires were first-time NFL head coaches, signaling a shift towards fresh perspectives and dynamic leadership strategies. This trend suggests organizations value potential and adaptability over traditional coaching pedigrees.

Scoring and Statistical Improvements

Examining first-time NFL head coaches reveals compelling scoring dynamics that reshape team performance. Indeed, detailed NFL game prop analysis often underscores how these new coaches drive significant offensive transformations, with Sean McVay’s Rams setting a benchmark by improving 15.9 points per game in 2017. Teams scoring under 18 PPG previously have seen dramatic turnarounds, averaging 5.3 additional wins under fresh leadership.

The statistical landscape shows more than just offensive shifts. Defensive improvements—like Ben McAdoo’s Giants reducing points allowed by 9.8 PPG in 2016—demonstrate the extensive impact new coaches can have. By focusing on key metrics like point margin, scoring, and turnover rates, first-time head coaches can rapidly elevate their team’s competitive profile and set the stage for sustained success.

Betting and Game Strategies

Five essential betting dynamics emerge when analyzing first-time NFL head coaches’ strategic landscape. You’ll want to recognize that rookie HCs have a challenging 41.7% playoff likelihood, with a .447 overall winning percentage. When betting at your favorite online sportsbook, focus on their early-season unpredictability, where opponents might struggle to prepare against unfamiliar strategies.

Your best approach involves careful contextual analysis. Look beyond raw statistics, studying individual matchups, coaching styles, and game-planning nuances. West coast teams traveling east present unique opportunities, but you’ll need to dig deeper than surface-level trends. Remember that while rookie HCs often improve point differentials and win totals, they’re statistically more likely to lose than win.

Your betting success hinges on understanding these complex dynamics and avoiding knee-jerk reactions to isolated data points.

Long-Term Coaching Sustainability

While the NFL's coaching landscape has become increasingly volatile, long-term sustainability remains a critical factor in team success.

You'll notice that teams like the Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs demonstrate how consistent leadership can drive organizational stability. The data shows that frequent coaching changes often fail to address systemic issues and can lead to organizational instability.

Your understanding of coaching tenure should recognize that teams with coaches who stay 10+ years typically have higher winning percentages. The constant player turnover due to free agency makes building a cohesive roster challenging, but maintaining coaching continuity can provide the strategic consistency needed to overcome these obstacles.

Your team's success might hinge on resisting the temptation of quick, reactive coaching changes.

The Power of Analytics in Football

You've witnessed the transformative power of fresh NFL coaching talent - like a spark igniting a dormant engine. First-time coaches aren't just replacements; they're strategic revolutionaries who can turn struggling teams into competitive powerhouses. With data-driven approaches and innovative game plans, these coaches aren't just changing scores - they're rewriting franchise narratives and proving that new leadership can breathe life into any organization.