February 9th, 2025

By Stephen Juza

Super Bowl LIX kicks off today at 6:30p.m. ET, and should be an incredibly exciting game to finish the 2024 NFL season. On one side of history, we have the Kansas City Chiefs seeking the first team to ever win three consecutive Super Bowls. On the other, we have the Philadelphia Eagles, looking for their second-ever Super Bowl victory.

These teams have shared history between them - they faced off in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Super Bowl LVII was a thrilling game down to the final seconds as the Chiefs won 38-35 on a Harrison Butker field goal with eight seconds remaining on the clock. Not only that, but current Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is also the winningest coach in Eagles history (130-93-1), and one of the best players in Eagles history (Jason Kelce) is the brother of one of the greatest players in Chiefs history (Travis Kelce).

While there is a lot of history between them, the game won’t be settled based on the past matchups. So who has the edge in Super Bowl LIX? What matchups will lead to a victory?

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Steve Spagnuola versus Saquon Barkley

Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley has put together one of the best seasons for a running back in NFL history: 2,005 yards rushing, with another 278 yards through the air, and 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing, 2 receiving). He’s the engine that makes the Eagles offense hum to the tune of the 7th ranked offense in the league. Only one other team put up as many rushing yards as the Eagles, taking substantial pressure off quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts is capable as a quarterback, but the Eagles rarely needed him to shine - no team threw fewer passes than the Eagles all season long.

Stopping the run is a tall order, but Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is up to the task. No coordinator has more Super Bowl victories (4) than Spagnuolo, and his defense was integral in one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets ever when the New York Giants ended the New England Patriots quest for a perfect season by holding the high-scoring offense to only 14 points.

The Chiefs defense was 8th overall in the league at stopping the run, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones and the defensive line will have to be at the top of their game to set the tone against the Eagles offensive line. Whoever wins here will set the tone for the game, leading us into our second key matchup.

Eagles Secondary versus Patrick Mahomes

While the Eagles offense runs through Barkley, the Chiefs offense runs through Mahomes. No one has had a more decorated start to their career than Mahomes, and the Chiefs certainly feel like they can never be counted out of the game with him under center. While the Chiefs had their best record of his career (15-2), it was certainly a down year for Mahomes. 2024 was the first year since he was named the starter that he was not named to the Pro Bowl, he tied a career-low for touchdown passes, and had his fewest passing yards in his career.

However, the Chiefs were never out of it. He led the league with seven game-winning drives in 2024, so as long as the ball is in his hands, the Chiefs are in the game. It will be up to the secondary - Quinyon Mitchell, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay, Jr., and Reed Blankenship - to slow down Mahomes. The defense has been great at limiting points and yards (ranked second and first in the league), but have also come away with 26 turnovers. Stealing possessions against the Chiefs to hand Barkley a short field to work with will be the recipe for victory for the Eagles.

Super Bowl Prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 24

I expect the Eagles to set the tone early behind Barkley to limit the number of possessions in this game. The fewer chances the Chiefs have, the better for the Eagles. The game will always feel nail-bitingly close despite the multi-score lead the Eagles will carry through much of the game, and ultimately the Chiefs comeback will fall short.