A Game of Numbers: Understanding the 2023 Heisman Trophy Odds

November 17th, 2023

In the thrilling world of college football, every season brings its share of highs and lows, victories and defeats, and heroes and underdogs. One such season that has captivated fans nationwide is the 2023 season, marked by the intense rivalry between the Washington Huskies and the Oregon Ducks.

Notably, this season saw Michael Penix Jr. of the Huskies square off against Bo Nix of the Ducks in a game still being discussed in every fan's living room. The outcome of that fateful game not only affected the AP Poll rankings but considerably shifted the odds for the coveted Heisman Trophy. Let's delve deeper into the fascinating story behind the 2023 Heisman Trophy odds.

Unstoppable Ducks Vs. Struggling Huskies

We've seen a clear shift in their performance trajectories in the aftermath of the epic showdown between the Ducks and the Huskies. The Ducks, led by the formidable Bo Nix, have been performing at an outstanding level, going 4-0 in the last four games with a +96 point differential. Nix has been a standout player, amassing over 1,300 passing yards and 16 total touchdowns with just a single interception. His completion rate of 77.5% even puts him at the top among all qualified FBS quarterbacks.

On the other hand, despite remaining undefeated, the Huskies have shown signs of struggle. Their victories over Arizona State, Stanford, USC, and Utah were hard-fought, with margins of less than 10 points. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s performance has been less than stellar, with a completion rate of only 62% and eight touchdowns with four interceptions.

Comparing these two Heisman contenders, it's fair to say that Nix has emerged as a more efficient offense. Quite interestingly, the sportsbooks seem to agree, with FanDuel's hypothetical line for a Pac-12 game between Oregon vs Washington favoring the Ducks by 6.5 points. In the race for the Heisman Trophy, Nix is currently the betting odds leader. However, the season is not over yet, and as we have seen, there can always be unexpected turns on the road to the Heisman Trophy.

Dark Horses in the Heisman Trophy Race

While Penix and Nix have dominated the discussions around the Heisman Trophy, two other players have quietly showcased their talent and made a case for themselves - Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State and Kyle McCord.

Harrison Jr. has been performing exceptionally, with over 1,000 yards receiving in this season alone. His recent game against Michigan State, where he racked up 150 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches, has been hailed by many as Harrison’s “Heisman game.” Accounting for about 40% of Ohio State's passing output this season, Harrison’s contribution to his team is undeniable.

Similarly, Kyle McCord, leading the No. 1 AP-ranked Buckeyes’ offense, has proven to be an indispensable asset. If Ohio State triumphs over Michigan, wins the Big Ten Championship game and makes the College Football Playoff, largely due to Harrison's and McCord's contributions, they could potentially make compelling cases for the Heisman Trophy.

Of course, the CFP Committee has the final decision. If Washington and Oregon are left out of the College Football Playoff, it could further bolster these dark horses' chances in the Heisman Trophy race. The climax of this captivating season is yet to unfold, and the NCAAF betting odds may still have surprises in store.

Impact on NFL Draft Stock

The performances of these players on the collegiate field not only position them as Heisman contenders but also significantly impact their NFL draft stock. Bo Nix's exceptional agility and precision, coupled with his leadership qualities as showcased in leading the Ducks, have certainly raised his stock in the eyes of NFL scouts. His ability to maintain a high completion rate under pressure is a testament to his potential in the big league.

Although Michael Penix Jr.'s recent performances may have raised some concerns, he remains a strong NFL prospect. His resilience and ability to pull through crucial moments, as demonstrated in the game against Oregon, underline his potential as a future NFL quarterback.

Similarly, the rise of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyle McCord cannot be disregarded. Harrison Jr.'s exceptional receiving skills and game-changing performances for Ohio State have undeniably put him on the radar of NFL teams. Moreover, McCord's ability to manage and lead the AP's No.1 ranked team showcases his potential as a valuable asset for any NFL team.


As the 2023 College Football season marches on, the contest for the Heisman Trophy and NFL Draft positions continue to evolve. The race remains thrillingly unpredictable, from the seemingly indomitable Bo Nix and the resilient Michael Penix Jr. to the emerging dark horses like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyle McCord. Regardless of the eventual outcomes, the performances we have witnessed so far underscore these athletes' extraordinary talent and dedication. No matter who walks away with the Heisman Trophy or where these players land in the NFL Draft, their contributions to the sport will always be remembered.