Potential Impact of Gaining Aaron Rodgers

By Stephen Juza

March 19th, 2023

Several years ago, we wrote about the potential impact that Tom Brady may have by moving to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and what should be expected by both the New England Patriots and the Buccaneers in the upcoming season. At that time, his impact was directly in line with historical expectations. A former All-Pro QB joining a new team typically adds about four wins to the new team’s total. He was expected to bring a championship mentality to the franchise - simply making the playoffs was no longer the goal.

The Buccaneers ended up improving four wins in his first season, making the playoffs and winning the team’s second Super Bowl. The gamble to bring in Brady paid off handsomely for the franchise, while the Patriots have since sputtered in the AFC East.

Since 2020, several more high profile quarterbacks have moved teams as the starting quarterback, with none more high-profile than Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Rodgers announced last week his intention of continuing his career with the New York Jets (with the trade compensation pending).

During his appearance on the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, Rodgers indicated the several reasons why he ultimately chose to continue playing for the Jets, and the Jets will be thrilled to have him. They are a team loaded with young talent on both sides of the ball, in desperate need of a quarterback.

Last season, the Jets averaged fewer than 11 points per game in their ten losses, and had four games where they scored under seven points. A Rodgers-led offense capable of putting up more points instantly propels them into the division and championship race in 2022 instead of sputtering down the stretch in which they lost their six games.

As indicated in the Brady article, a former All-Pro quarterback typically added four wins to their new team. These four wins would have put the Jets at second in the AFC East behind Buffalo, and the first wild card - the same rank that Brady put the Bucs in 2020. Rodgers’ championship experience, similar to Brady’s, will give the team instant credibility down the stretch.

There is another major benefit to the Jets getting Rodgers for the next season. It allows them to temporarily solve their QB conundrum. Zach Wilson has shown he isn’t the future, but the Jets likely would have missed out on a top QB in the draft next month. By acquiring the former MVP, it allows them to plan for the future, while going all in on the upcoming season or two.

While the trade details have still not been finalized, both teams are motivated to get the trade completed. The Packers are ready to move to Jordan Love as their quarterback and do not want Rodgers back. The Jets are ready to move away from Zach Wilson and have few options for next season without Rodgers.