February 14th, 2026
By Stephen Juza
On February 5, 2026, Matt Stafford won his first MVP award in his lengthy career. With this award, he strengthened his Hall of Fame candidacy to new heights, moving him from a fringe contender to a likely admission into the hallowed halls of Canton. Today, we break down how the 2025 season improved his candidacy by looking at historical and contemporary quarterbacks who were right above, or right below, the HOF cut line.
While the NFL season is now finished, you can check out an online sportsbook for all sorts of offseason prop bets focused around the NFL draft while you wait for the NFL games to come back around.
Stafford’s Chances Before 2025
Entering 2025, Stafford was likely on the outside looking in. At the end of last season, he had a Hall of Fame Monitor of 84.23, below the average HOF quarterback, right around Ken Anderson, and ahead of about a third of HOF quarterbacks. His counting stats certainly helped buoy his candidacy. During the start of his career in Detroit, eye-popping passing stats were the norm when he was throwing to Calvin Johnson.
From 2011 through 2017, Stafford had seven consecutive season where he threw for more than 4,000 yards. However, during this stretch of time, he was named to only a single Pro Bowl, the 2014 season when he threw for his fewest yards during this stretch of his career (4,257).
In fact, he didn’t get another Pro Bowl nod until the 2023 season when he was three years into his time with the Rams. By that point in his career, he was a 15-year veteran, throwing for 55k yards, two Pro Bowls and one Super Bowl championship.
Stafford’s 2025 Season
This last season was undoubtedly the best of his career. He led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, earning his third Pro Bowl appearance, all while leading the Rams to a 12-5 record and #5 seed in the playoffs. Their season culminated in the NFC Championship game, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion, Seattle Seahawks, 31-27.
At the end of the year, the passing touchdowns was the difference maker in a very tight MVP race. Stafford edged out Drake Maye by a mere five points and a single first place vote.
Historical Quarterback Comparisons
Stafford finished the season by moving into 6th place in total career passing yards, with an opportunity to move into 5th place next year if Aaron Rodgers decides to retire after this year. Counting stats were how Stafford made his career, and now with a few accolades, he has pushed his Hall of Fame Monitor up to 108.11. Every quarterback with a higher score has either already been elected to the Hall, or is not yet eligible. In fact, almost every other quarterback who has won both a Super Bowl and an MVP has been elected to the Hall of Fame.
Stafford’s season pushed him ahead of some recently-retired quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning. Among those three, Ryan may now be the odd man out of the Hall of Fame induction. With a glut of eligible quarterbacks coming up in the next few years, Stafford will benefit more from his 2025 season than any other in his lengthy career.