Pro Football History.com Blog

Potential Impact of Gaining Aaron Rodgers

By Stephen Juza

March 19th, 2023

Several years ago, we wrote about the potential impact that Tom Brady may have by moving to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and what should be expected by both the New England Patriots and the Buccaneers in the upcoming season. At that time, his impact was directly in line with historical expectations. A former All-Pro QB joining a new team typically adds about four wins to the new team’s total. He was expected to bring a championship mentality to the franchise - simply making the playoffs was no longer the goal.

The Buccaneers ended up improving four wins in his first season, making the playoffs and winning the team’s second Super Bowl. The gamble to bring in Brady paid off handsomely for the franchise, while the Patriots have since sputtered in the AFC East.

Since 2020, several more high profile quarterbacks have moved teams as the starting quarterback, with none more high-profile than Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Rodgers announced last week his intention of continuing his career with the New York Jets (with the trade compensation pending).

During his appearance on the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, Rodgers indicated the several reasons why he ultimately chose to continue playing for the Jets, and the Jets will be thrilled to have him. They are a team loaded with young talent on both sides of the ball, in desperate need of a quarterback.

Last season, the Jets averaged fewer than 11 points per game in their ten losses, and had four games where they scored under seven points. A Rodgers-led offense capable of putting up more points instantly propels them into the division and championship race in 2022 instead of sputtering down the stretch in which they lost their six games.

As indicated in the Brady article, a former All-Pro quarterback typically added four wins to their new team. These four wins would have put the Jets at second in the AFC East behind Buffalo, and the first wild card - the same rank that Brady put the Bucs in 2020. Rodgers’ championship experience, similar to Brady’s, will give the team instant credibility down the stretch.

There is another major benefit to the Jets getting Rodgers for the next season. It allows them to temporarily solve their QB conundrum. Zach Wilson has shown he isn’t the future, but the Jets likely would have missed out on a top QB in the draft next month. By acquiring the former MVP, it allows them to plan for the future, while going all in on the upcoming season or two.

While the trade details have still not been finalized, both teams are motivated to get the trade completed. The Packers are ready to move to Jordan Love as their quarterback and do not want Rodgers back. The Jets are ready to move away from Zach Wilson and have few options for next season without Rodgers.

How the NFL Combine Could Make or Break Draft Odds for Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers?

By Oliver Vaughn

March 10th, 2023

The NFL Scouting Combine is one of the most important events in the lead-up to the NFL Draft. It's a chance for college football prospects to showcase their skills and impress scouts, coaches, and executives from all 32 NFL teams.

For wide receivers, in particular, the combine can make or break their draft odds. In this article, we'll take a closer look at how the NFL Combine could impact the draft stock of some of the top wide receiver prospects.

Bryce Young's Height and Weight Could Impact His Draft Stock

Bryce Young is considered one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, there are concerns about his size, as he's considered small for an NFL quarterback.

At the Combine, Young's height and weight will be closely scrutinized, and it could impact his draft stock as the potential No. 1 overall pick. If he measures up well, he could solidify his position as the top quarterback in the draft. But if he falls short, it could open the door for other quarterbacks to leapfrog him.

Will Levis Could Surprise as the First Quarterback Drafted

While Bryce Young is considered the top quarterback prospect in the draft, there's another quarterback who could surprise as the first quarterback drafted. Will Levis out of Kentucky is a big, strong quarterback who has impressed scouts with his arm strength and athleticism. He's not as polished as some of the other quarterbacks in the draft, but his physical tools could make him an attractive option for teams in need of a quarterback.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Could Separate Himself from the Pack

The 2023 wide receiver class is a deep and talented group, but there's no clear-cut No. 1 receiver. That could change at the NFL Combine, where one receiver could separate himself from the pack. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, out of Ohio State, is a player to watch. He's a smooth route-runner with excellent hands and the ability to make plays after the catch. If he performs well at the combine, he could solidify his position as the top receiver in the draft.

The Gauntlet Drill Will Be a Key Test for Wide Receivers

One of the most exciting drills at the NFL Combine is the Gauntlet Drill, which tests a wide receiver's ability to catch the ball while running across the field. It's a test of a receiver's hands, concentration, and ability to make quick adjustments.

The drill is always a highlight of the combine, and this year should be no different. Keep an eye on the wide receivers who excel in this drill, as they could be the ones who separate themselves from the pack.

The Importance of the Bench Press for Wide Receivers

While the bench press is typically associated with offensive and defensive linemen, it's also an important test for wide receivers. A receiver's upper body strength can impact his ability to fight off defenders and make contested catches. Look for the wide receivers who excel in the bench press, as they could have an advantage over their peers when it comes to making tough catches in traffic.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the NFL Combine is a crucial event for wide receivers and other prospects looking to make a name for themselves in the lead-up to the NFL Draft. Bryce Young's height and weight, Will Levis' physical tools, Jaxon Smith-Njigba's route-running and hands, the Gauntlet Drill, and the bench press are all key factors to watch during the combine.

Keep an eye on these players and tests, as they could have a significant impact on the draft stock of some of the top wide receiver prospects.

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Makeup of a Defensive Coordinator

By Stephen Juza

March 3rd, 2023

Every year, defenses struggle to keep up with the offensive explosions throughout the league. Scoring peaked in 2020 at 24.8 points per game. In fact, the ten highest scoring seasons since 1970 have occurred in the last twelve seasons. Each year, defensive coordinators are tasked with finding new ways to slow down the increasingly pass-happy offenses.

Our earlier article examined the background of the league’s offensive coordinators where almost two thirds of the tacticians in charge of the offense come from a quarterback coach background. Today, we examine the position coaching background of the 2022 defensive coordinators.

The Coaches:

As with offensive coordinators, not every team has someone designated as the coordinator, and sometimes the head coach is in control of play calling. Two teams, the Saints and the Buccaneers, have split the role in two, one for passing and one for running.

Unlike offense, there is the potential for more granularity in position coaches on the defensive side. Some teams have separate coaches for inside and outside linebackers, defensive tackles and defensive ends, etc. For this article, I’ve grouped the coaches into defensive line, linebackers, and secondary coaches.

Career Experience:

Across the league, defensive coordinators in 2022 were more likely to come from farther away on the line of scrimmage. Seventeen of the thirty four coaches had experience coaching defensive backs, seventeen coached linebackers, and five had experience with defensive lines. Since coaches have opportunities to coach multiple positions during their career, these numbers don’t line up perfectly, as five coaches had experience crossing multiple position groups.

Defensive coordinators spent about eight seasons in their career as a position coach prior to their current coordinator position. This is almost double the experience with offensive coordinators (~4.75 seasons of experience). Several offensive coordinators came in with zero NFL position coaching experience, a fact not shared by the defensive staff.

What stands out to me is how little there is a relationship between experience and results on the defensive end. Unlike the offensive side of the ball, where more experience generally led to higher scoring offenses, defenses led by coordinators with more experience had worse performing units.

The top ten most-experienced coordinators (ten or more seasons as a position coach) led units that averaged just over 23 points per game. Looking at the other end of the experience spectrum, the nine least-experienced coaches (two through four seasons of experience) led units averaging 21 points per game. Additionally, it’s not simply because the coaches with the most potential move up to coordinators quickly - both groups have spent similar time in coordinator roles as well.

Positional Coaching Experience:

Not only is the number of years of experience not related to team performance, there is little difference between what level of defense they were coaching. Former linebackers coaches led defenses that gave up an average of 21.5 points per game, best of the three position groups. Former secondary coaches gave up the most points per game at 22.1 - a difference of only 3%.

No matter how you slice it, no amount of experience trends toward better performing defenses.

Key Takeaways: My theory on why we see such a lack of a difference compared to offensive coordinators is due to the unique ways that defenses can help cover their own shortcomings. An excellent pass rush can make a secondary seem better because opposing quarterbacks have less time to throw. Lockdown cornerbacks can give their defensive line more time to get to the quarterback.

The same is not inherently true on offense. An excellent quarterback can cover up deficiencies across the unit, but the same is not necessarily true for other units. Look no further than prime Randy Moss for the best example of this.

His two seasons in Oakland in the middle of prime, were season lows for his career up to that point (excluding 2004 where he only played 13 games). Despite his talent, in 2006 the Raiders had the third worst passing offense in the league. After being traded to New England, he immediately broke the individual season receiving touchdown record as the Patriots set all sorts of team offense records.

Defensive coordinators are tasked with slowing down the increasingly potent offenses around the league. When teams look to hire one, betting on experience to elevate the defensive unit may not be the way to go.

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Recent History of Super Bowl Underdogs

By Oliver Vaughn

February 23rd, 2023

Are you wondering how often favorites and underdogs have won the Super Bowl in the last five years? Well, we have the answer for you. Keep reading to find out who has been winning the most and why.

Overview

The past 5 Super Bowls have offered a treat to both favorite and underdog fans. Of the 5 Super Bowls played in the last five years, the favorite team has won 2 of these matchups, and 3 out of 5 wins went to the underdog team, highlighting their determination and resilience despite any underlying disadvantages.

Super Bowl LVII

During the build-up to Super Bowl 57, held a few days ago, analysts across the board gave the Kansas City Chiefs slim chances of triumph against their celebrated opponents, the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite the lopsided predictions, quite a few remained hopeful that quarterback Patrick Mahomes' prowess might just be enough to bridge the gap between them and the reigning champions.

Remarkably, through an intense game and some clever play-calling by Andy Reid’s team, they upended expectations and emerged victorious at 38-35 in one of the sport’s all-time greatest showdowns.

Super Bowl LVI

In 2022, the Los Angeles Rams made an incredible upset against the Cincinnati Bengals, thereby ending their four-game losing streak. Despite the odds being firmly in favor of the Bengal's advantage due to their strong momentum coming from a streak of three consecutive wins, it was the Rams rallied late to pull off a stunning 23-20 victory on their home turf.

This triumphant win was solely credited to the timely and clutch performance by quarterback Joe Burrow and his offensive line, which successfully pushed back against a fierce defensive push from the Bengals.

It was truly an admirable display of strength and resilience by the Rams that saw them come out on top that day, giving them much-needed confidence as they geared up to push further into postseason play.

Super Bowl LV

The victory of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV was truly remarkable. Going into the game, most professional football analysts had picked the Chiefs as favorites because of their impressive season record and experience.

However, the Bucs proved to be too strong for them, showcasing superior tactics and defensive play throughout all four quarters. From Tom Brady's pinpoint accuracy to Devin White's gutsy defensive decisions, the Bucs completely outplayed their opponents and clinched a decisive win with a score of 31-9. This result is sure to go down as one of the biggest upsets in NFL history and serves as a testament to what teamwork, leadership, and determination can achieve.

Super Bowl LIV

Many believed that the 2020 Super Bowl would be a match for the ages, pitting the heavily favored Kansas City Chiefs against the underdog San Francisco 49ers, with many betting on the upset.

However, when the final whistle blew, it was confirmed: The Chiefs had come out victorious at 31-21. Led by Patrick Mahomes, who was named MVP of Super Bowl LIV, and veteran guru Andy Reid on the sidelines, it's no surprise how deftly they were able to defeat their opponents.

Super Bowl LIII

The 2019 Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams was one of the most highly anticipated games in NFL history. The Patriots, who fielded an experienced team with veteran talent and a four-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback, were heavy favorites to take home another championship.

Despite the Rams' impressive regular season record and a younger yet talented roster, it felt that the odds were against them coming into this big game. Turned out that the pre-game analysis was spot on. On February 3rd, 2019, the Patriots made sure to shut down any possible comeback from their opponent.

They dominated both offense and defense, and after four quarters of play, they took the crown with a score of 13 - 3. Although it was a much less exciting game than expected, it was a great victory for New England’s veteran team full of illustrious historical NFL players such as Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

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Best 2023 NFL Coach of the Year Candidates

By Oliver Vaughn

January 31st, 2023

With the NFL regular season wrapping up, it's time to start thinking about who the leading candidates are for Coach of the Year. There are a lot of great coaches in the league, but we've narrowed it down to 2023's top five. Here they are; Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles), Brian Daboll (New York Giants), Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars), and Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers). We'll take a look at why each of these coaches deserves consideration for the award.

Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

Kyle Shanahan, the current head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, is a leading candidate for NFL Coach of the Year honors. Leading by example and inspiring his players to better heights, Shanahan has guided the 49ers on an incredible current 13-4 winning streak.

His knack for finding ways to get the most out of all positions has made him a stand-out candidate and a must-watch during this season. With stunts like 4th down gambles and deep strategic analysis during games dominating headlines, there's no doubt he's put himself in line for recognition as one of football's best young coaches.

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Nick Sirianni, the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, has emerged as one of the most impressive coaches in the NFL this season. Under his leadership and guidance, the team has exceeded expectations, garnering multiple wins and maintaining a strong hold on a playoff spot.

Sirianni's creative playcalling ability and innovative smart adjustments to game situations have generated tremendous praise from football pundits near and far. With an explosive offense and solid defense, there's no denying that he is another great NFL coach of the year candidate - a well-deserved honor for one of the league's best minds.

Brian Daboll, New York Giants (9-7-1)

Brian Daboll, coach of the New York Giants, has strongly impacted the 2023 season. His guidance helped guide the team to an impressive current 9-7-1 record that makes them one of the favorites to land a spot at this year’s Super Bowl, and he is also highly considered for the NFL Coach of the Year Award.

Daboll has made a name for himself as a coach who positively contributes to his team's success by getting the best out of their players. Even more amazingly, this is all accomplished under the tremendous pressure on coaches today. If Brian continues his trajectory of great success, he may soon be walking away with one of football’s most prestigious awards.

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

Doug Pederson is another likely candidate for NFL coach of the year. After taking over the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022, Pederson has reshaped the team and made a real impact on their performance this season. From his record with the Philadelphia Eagles and an impressive 20 years as a coach, he came in with big aspirations in Jacksonville.

With a new energy, training regimens, and approaches to both offensive and defensive play, he’s turned things around. It seems like the Jackson Jaguars can only be going up from here! We’ll have to wait and see if his hard work pays off, but it looks like Doug Pederson is one of the strongest contenders for the NFL Coach of The Year award.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

Mike Tomlin, the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, has been praised as one of the best coaches in the NFL. During his 15-year career with the Steelers, Tomlin managed to bring them to three Super Bowl appearances, securing two victories and six division titles.

His innovative methods and untiring drive have helped propel him to become a nominee for such a prestigious award this season. Despite being unable to make a super bowl appearance this year, Mike Tomlin's immense capabilities have demonstrated why he is truly one of the most valuable members of the Pittsburgh Steelers family.

Although the NFL Coach of the Year is one of the most anticipated awards, the NFL props have also made quite a stir, with the NFL player props odds getting impressive volume this season. So as we enter the final stages of the 2022-23 season, be sure to stay up to date with the latest NFL news and rumors, as there is sure to be more drama before the season ends at the Super Bowl on the 12th of February!

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