AFC Playoff Picture After Week 11

November 17th, 2025

By Stephen Juza

With the conclusion of Week 11 of the regular season, we look at the AFC playoff picture and a few of the surprises that are in store for the final seven weeks of the regular season. The same seven teams are projected to be playoff bound, but we had movement among the seeds this week. The biggest moves were the Colts dropping from 1st to 3rd on their bye week, while the Broncos and Patriots both moved up a spot.

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#1 Denver Broncos (+1)

The current AFC West leaders continue their surprise as well in head coach Sean Payton’s third season with the team. While they were leading the division, the win this week against the Super Bowl runner-up Kansas City Chiefs certainly feels like a moment that proves this team is for real. It took a walk off field goal to secure the 22-19 victory, but at 9-2 the Broncos can almost start planning for the playoffs. A tough matchup awaits this week when the Broncos play host to the Colts on Sunday.

#2 New England Patriots (+1)

The current AFC East leaders are continuing their surprise season after a victory over the New York Jets on Thursday night. While the Jets scored first, the Patriots were able to rebound for a 27-14 victory as quarterback Drake Maye continued his possible MVP season in his second season as a pro. The Patriots defense locked down the anemic Jets offense, holding them to only 245 yards of offense. The Patriots continue their season next week on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals.

#3 Indianapolis Colts (-2)

The Colts were on a bye week this week, so they fell a half-game behind the Broncos and Patriots for home field advantage. The bye week will certainly help them get healthy ahead of their matchup with the Chiefs. The Colts have a great opportunity to keep pace with the top seeds in the AFC against the suddenly-mortal Chiefs. Road games in Kansas City are never a gimmee, but the Chiefs have lost their last two games and will certainly be looking forward to the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium.

#4 Pittsburgh Steelers

The final AFC division leader is the Pittsburgh Steelers after they move to 6-4 after a divisional win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The standout performance of the game was the Steelers defense who scored two touchdowns on Sunday, one pick-six and one fumble recovery. Meanwhile, Quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a wrist injury in the first half, but it did not slow the team, with backup Mason Rudolph coming in and throwing for an efficient 127 yards and one touchdown. The Steelers face a tough road test next week in Chicago and Coach of the Year front runner Ben Johnson.

#5 Buffalo Bills (+1)

The Bills move up to the fifth seed this week after a closer-than-it-looks victory against the NFC South leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills scored the go-ahead points with 9:06 to go in the fourth quarter on Josh Allen’s second rushing touchdown of the day, with the breathing-room points coming a couple minutes later with his third rushing touchdown. The Bills have a short week this week, going on the road to face the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football.

#6 Los Angeles Chargers (-1)

The first wild card spot falls to the Chargers, who stumbled badly against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The team did not show up to compete, falling 35-6 against a fellow wildcard team. The Chargers have a good opportunity to get back on track when they host the Las Vegas Raiders next week.

#7 Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had a great rebound showing after last week’s disappointing collapse against the Houston Texans after blowing a 19-point lead. To respond, they secured their first victory of the season against a probable playoff team with their home victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars dominated from start to finish this game, thumping the Chargers 35-6 for the second most points they have scored all season long. The Jaguars go on the road this upcoming week against the Arizona Cardinals.

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