Pro Football History.com Blog
August 20th, 2025
When you look at the 2025 NFL schedule and the Week 1 games, you can be pretty sure that there will be a shock or two across the fixture list. It’s inevitable, part of sports in general, not just football. Yet, from a data perspective, we might ask how often the favorite for a game wins in the NFL?
As you might expect, the answer changes season by season, and there are other variables you will consider when studying NFL game betting lines, such as home advantage. Still, the answer is that in a typical NFL season, the sportsbook favorite wins a game around 65%-69% of the time.
In 2024, however, we had a better season for the favorites than average, with the team favored in the betting odds winning 72.1% of the time, going 196-76 across a 272-game season. It’s valuable knowledge for sports betting, even if it does not give you insight into a specific matchup, but where does it rank historically?
The 2024 season was generous to the favorites.
The main takeaway is that the 72.1% rate for the favorite ranks 9th all-time. The highest-ever rate was recorded across the 1975 season, with the favorite winning 76.8% of the time in Roger Staubach and Terry Bradshaw's era.
However, trends are essential when looking at historical betting data, and it is worth noting that the 2024 rate of 72.1% was the highest in almost 20 years, only beaten by the rate of 74.9% posted in the 2005 season. The 2023 season came in at 68%, a bit lower than the previous season, with a rate of 64.9% across 2022.
Historically, the 1970s seemed to be the heyday for beating the bookies, as seven of the top ten best seasons for backing favorites came between 1969 and 1976. The “worst” period came in the early 1950s, with the favorites almost touching as low as a 50% win rate from 1955-1957. However, we should stress that the data becomes less reliable the further you go.
ATS could be a more critical metric
Of course, we should also recognize that this data represents straight-up results, whereas many NFL bettors will be looking at beating the spread. The ATS metric, i.e., the win rate of the favorites who beat the handicap on each game, was also high at 54.1% (the 5th-best rate all-time) in the 2024 season. The 2005 season was the best overall, with favorites beating the spread across 58.9% of games.
It’s worth noting that the ATS metric averages below 50% historically, so it does tell you that unquestioningly backing the favorites to beat the handicap is not likely to be profitable long-term. On the other hand, raw statistics are only helpful up to a point, and they should not impact your strategy for approaching individual games and game weeks, nor the season as a whole.
Ultimately, seeing if last season was an outlier will be interesting. Thus far, the 2020s have been about average historically, yet there are signs we are trending toward the high 60s and low 70s. This could be due to different factors, including AI and algorithmic betting strategies. Still, it can also be down to the schedule and the balance of quality between different rosters. But we won’t be able to call it a trend until those high numbers, like last season, repeat across several years, just like in the late 1960s and 1970s.
August 18th, 2025
As the NFL enters the 2025 season, the role of the running back continues to evolve. Once defined by bruising, every-down backs, the position has become increasingly dynamic, with players now expected to contribute in both the run and pass games. While some teams still rely on a feature back, many have adopted committee approaches, emphasizing versatility over volume.
Despite the league’s shift toward pass-heavy offenses, the run game remains a crucial component. With that in mind, here’s a look at several running backs—veterans, emerging talents, and those adapting to new offensive schemes—who are worth watching this season.
Veteran Running Backs Still Producing at a High Level
Several experienced backs remain key figures in their respective offenses. Leading the way is Saquon Barkley for the Philadelphia Eagles. Coming off one of the greatest seasons a running back has ever had, totaling 2,005 yards rushing and 278 yards receiving. But the real highlight for Barkley was ending the season with his first ever Super Bowl victory, a triumph over the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Derrick Henry, long known for his punishing running style, continues to be a foundational piece for Tennessee. Despite turning 31 this season—an age where most backs see decline—Henry has shown little sign of slowing down. His durability and physicality still make him one of the most feared rushers in the game, and his workload continues to be a point of analysis across platforms like bonuses.com and other football data sources.
Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs enter 2025 with high expectations. Kamara, who battled and ultimately missed the final weeks of the 2024 season with a groin injury, remains one of the NFL’s most versatile backs when healthy—he posted 950 rushing yards and 543 receiving yards in just 14 games.
Jacobs, now with the Green Bay Packers, remains one of the top workload backs in the league. In his first year in Green Bay, he carried the ball 301 times for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns, establishing himself as a key offensive engine when the scheme plays to his power-running strengths.
These veterans may no longer be the future at the position, but they remain important pieces—especially on teams looking for leadership and consistency.
Emerging Talents Poised for a Breakout
A new generation of backs is coming into focus. Breece Hall, returning from a knee injury in 2024, again demonstrated his three‑down skill set—though his numbers dipped to 876 rushing yards and 483 receiving yards in 16 games. If healthy in 2025 under coordinator Tanner Engstrand, Hall has the tools—vision, speed, receiving ability—to rebound into top‑tier form.
Jahmyr Gibbs, entering his second full season, exploded in 2024 with 1,412 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs, plus over 500 receiving yards, and earned Pro Bowl honors while setting the Lions’ single‑season touchdown record. Early training‑camp usage suggests an even larger role in 2025, especially as a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Rachaad White, in Tampa Bay’s committee, posted 613 rushing yards and 393 receiving yards in about half the snaps during 2024, functioning as a proven runner and catch asset.
As 2025 marks a contract year and Bucky Irving ascends, White’s role may hinge on the new offense’s creative deployment. If used consistently, he could deliver reliable production both rushing and receiving.
This group represents the modern prototype for the position—players who can contribute on all three downs and create mismatches in both the run and pass game.
Backs Adjusting to New Offensive Systems
Coaching changes and scheme overhauls can define a running back’s trajectory. Khalil Herbert, once seen as a north–south runner who could benefit from defined zones, is now in Indianapolis in a change-of-pace role rather than a focal feature as he was with prior teams.
Bijan Robinson enters his third NFL season with lofty expectations—he piled up 1,887 scrimmage yards and 15 total touchdowns in 2024 and figures to be the centerpiece of a more balanced Atlanta offense under coordinator Zac Robinson.
Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler remains a top-tier dual-threat back—but his 2024 was marred by concussions, limiting his usage. How the Commanders deploy him under the current coaching structure will be a defining storyline for his 2025 bounce-back.
Players in these situations often see their fortunes rise or fall based on scheme fit more than raw talent, making them interesting cases to monitor throughout the year.
Looking Ahead
The running back position continues to evolve in response to the modern NFL scene. Whether through committee systems, specialized roles, or traditional feature usage, the backs listed above offer a snapshot of the position’s current state. Veterans provide experience and leadership, younger players inject fresh energy, and scheme fits can make all the difference.
As the 2025 season unfolds, expect these backs, each with different paths and roles, to help shape how their teams move the ball on the ground and beyond. Their impact will be felt not only in rushing totals, but in pass protection, screen game versatility, and red zone execution - critical elements of today’s dynamic offenses. The success of these players will be closely tied to how well coaching staffs adapt systems to their strengths, underscoring the continued strategic importance of the running back in a pass-heavy league.
August 17th, 2025
Training camp time is a vital stage of the NFL team development process. It's also exciting for the fans but perhaps less so for the players, as it's usually a very grueling time, where they have to prove themselves to stay in the team. This is where fans and managers can see which players are either over-achieving or under-achieving, which is useful information that you need to keep in mind when it comes to placing bets on sites like https://rabona.com/nz/sport, that's for sure.
When it comes to the Titans, first, you need to look at how their rookie QB, Cam Ward, is doing, then you have to take some time to dive into their offensive line, as this is paramount to a team's success and up until now, something the Titans haven't always been the best at. Next, the team needs to make sure it has a solid defense structure. It's all about improvement, that's what a training camp is for and improvement seems to be the motto for the team these days.
Cam Ward is The Rookie QB Making Waves
One of the biggest storylines out of Titans camp has to be the arrival of rookie quarterback Cam Ward. He is something to behold. It's impressive to see how the younger players, like Ward, are trying to fit into the team, giving their best and soaking up a lot of critical information become better players who can contribute more substantially to the organization.
For Ward, it's been a set of ups and downs, as he struggled against complex third-down blitz packages but that's all part of the process. These players, especially rookies, are nervous about showing up, so some of the mistakes can be blamed on early jitters. Managers and coaches prefer if the cracks start to show during the training season, as they know they still have time to iron things out.
The Offense is Still a Work in Progress
Brian Callahan, entering his second season as head coach, is working hard to rebuild the offense. The offensive line is a major focus after the team invested over $100 million. He knows that management poured a lot of investments into this project and now it's his job to turn that into performance.
As with every player, the offense had its goods and bads during camp. Callahan's main goals are reducing penalties and turnovers are at the top of his list. But he's honest with his players, when they're performing well and when they're performing poorly. Honesty is key in a good rebuild.
Building a Stronger Receiving Corps
The Titans’ receiving room is changing and you can see how they’re experimenting with different combinations. Tyler Lockett is taking on a new role, playing more inside and preparing to absorb tougher yards. He’s adjusting well, which is excellent for his career and he's being a great leader to younger players.
A few rookies are also stepping up:
- Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor are earning playing time and flashing potential.
- Tight end Gunnar Helm has shown natural pass-catching skills and could see significant snaps alongside Chig Okonkwo in two-TE sets.
- Bryce Oliver is pushing hard for the sixth receiver spot, adding depth to the unit.
Simmons Leading the Charge with Defense
On the defensive side, Jeffery Simmons looks leaner and more explosive after dropping 20 pounds. The team doesn't have a dominant edge rusher, so Simmons’ improvement could be a game-changer.
The secondary is also showing promise. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is stepping up as a reliable starter, while rookie Kevin Winston Jr. has been making plays, including a perfectly timed safety blitz to disrupt Ward.
Pay and Roster Investment
The Titans have not been shy about spending where it matters. The significant investment in the offensive line shows they are serious about protecting their young quarterback and establishing a strong run game.
For you, as someone following the team and a fan, this is encouraging because it signals a commitment to building a foundation for long-term success, which means that this is going to be a team you can support for a long time.
What to Expect as the Season Approaches
It's fascinating to see how some of the best teams approach their training season and with a team that works as hard as this one, it's been thrilling to see how their plans are working out. Under Callahan and GM Mike Borgonzi, the aim is not only to win but rather to build a team that lasts and that plays perfectly executed football. This is what the training camp is for. It's meant for the team to try as many tools, resources and plays as possible, to create an ecosystem in which their players feel like they can succeed and as a team, manage to succeed in their goals collectively.
August 13th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
Last week, we focused on how likely it would be for the Philadelphia Eagles to repeat as Super Bowl champions. This week, our article examines what needs to happen for the Kansas City Chiefs to retain their place at the top of the league
NFL odds, including markets for the Chiefs’ season, are available at Bally Casino.
Since Patrick Mahomes took over as starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have been one of the most dominating dynasties in NFL history. Five Super Bowl appearances, three victories, and seven straight AFC Championship appearances. In February, the Eagles beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and denied them three straight Super Bowl victories - a feat never accomplished in the modern NFL.
But as dominating as the Chiefs have been, dynasties are brittle. It takes a combination of skill and luck to reach the heights the Chiefs already have accomplished, so today, we look at two things that stand in the Chiefs way en route to their fourth Super Bowl of the Andy Reid era: Roster and Coaching.
Roster Construction
As long as Mahomes is at quarterback, the Chiefs will be a contender. But if the roster slips too much, they will be a contender in the same way that the New Orleans Saints were a constant contender with Drew Brees. While Brees was one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, they only one a single Super Bowl despite seven NFC South titles. Brees was good enough to keep the offense competitive, but the rest of the team could not match his performance.
With the Chiefs, general manager Brett Veach has done a fantastic job of keeping a top tier roster in place. It certainly helps when you have several key pieces in Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones. With anchors at those positions, it has offered the team more flexibility. When All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill wanted a new contract, Veach traded him to the Miami Dolphins for five draft picks. While Hill continued to perform in Miami, the Chiefs ended up winning consecutive Super Bowls.
The Chiefs could afford to trade one of their best players because of the depth on the team. However, with Kelce reaching the end of his career, it’s imperative that Chiefs have a new receiving threat emerge to give Mahomes a new weapon. One key weapon for the Chiefs will be Hollywood Brown. After missing almost all of the last season with an injury, he re-signed with the Chiefs for a single season and the team hopes he can be the deep threat that the team can rely on.
Coaching
During the latest dynasty, Reid has worked himself into the conversation as one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, and he shows no signs of letting up now. However, there are two things that will challenge the Chiefs in the coaching realm as they look to retain their championship status: age and competition.
We’ve written before about Reid’s age before and how it may limit his pursuit of the all time wins record. But beyond the head coach, the Chiefs have one of the best defensive coordinators ever (Steve Spagnuolo) leading their defense. Until one of them leaves, the Chiefs will likely outmatch any opposing coaching staff they will face. Which is especially difficult, because the AFC West has one of the most impressive quartet of head coaches ever assembled.
Reid’s opposing head coaches in the AFC West all have won championships, either Super Bowls or NCAA championships. Raiders head coach Pete Carroll has won both. The collective success between the AFC West has certainly raised the stakes each week. In a league where every game matters, there will be no easy game in the division. While the Chiefs remain the top of the division, with three other teams breathing down their necks with championship pedigrees, they have to bring their best every week.
The Chiefs kick off their season on September 5th against their division rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers.
Follow us on Twitter
Follow us on Bluesky
August 7th, 2025
By Stephen Juza
With the NFL season starting next month(!), attention in Philadelphia will soon shift to “Can the Eagles repeat?” While the recent success of the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots has certainly shifted the opinion that every champion is a budding dynasty, the simple fact remains this: Repeating is hard.
Overall, there have only been three other teams to repeat as Super Bowl Champions in the last thirty years: Kansas City Chiefs (2022-2023), New England Patriots (2002-2003), and the Denver Broncos (1997-1998). So in today’s article, let’s look at what the Eagles have, and how that may compare to what recent back-to-back champions have had in their favor.
While you are waiting for the NFL season to start in just a few short weeks, check out themed online slot machines such as Fishin Frenzy at Virgin Games to find some offseason fun.
Coaching Staff
It’s impossible to get far in the league with a subpar head coach. So how does head coach Nick Sirianni stack up? In his four seasons as a head coach, he has made the playoffs each season, winning one Super Bowl and appearing in a second, all while averaging 12 wins a season. Certainly impressive numbers to the start of his career. How does Sirianni compare to the other three? Well, let’s just say if he can achieve half the career the others have, he could be on the cusp of a Hall of Fame career.
Between the other three coaches, Andy Reid (Chiefs), Bill Belichick (Patriots), and Mike Shanahan (Broncos), they have eleven Super Bowl titles and 748 career wins. Sirianni has a long ways to go before he is included in the rarefied air of those three coaches. But, after only four seasons, he does compare favorably to the others.
It took Reid twenty one years before he won his first Super Bowl. Belichick? Seven. Shanahan? He won his first in his fifth year as head coach. Each of the three also had several seasons of poor results before finally reaching the mountaintop. Sirianni was leading winning seasons right out of the gate. While it may take a while before people start attaching the “future hall of famer” label to him, the Eagles certainly feel they have something special with their coach.
Players
While coaching is important, it’s ultimately down to the players on the field, and the Eagles have a lot of terrific players on both sides of the ball. They are loaded with offensive firepower, led by reigning offensive player of the year, Saquon Barkley. In 2024, Barkley put together one of the best seasons by a running back in league history. When they weren’t running the ball, All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Brown was tacking on yards through the air.
On the defensive side of the ball, They are led by All-Pros Zack Baun (LLB) and Jalen Carter (LDT). In the secondary, they have two players in the top five of last year’s defensive rookie of the year voting and key veterans to help guide the way.. Overall, the Eagles defense allowed the fewest yards of any team in the league last year, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will have them ready for 2025.
The past three times a team has repeated, they have had a hall of fame quarterback behind the center. While it’s earlier in Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts’ career, it is a night-and-day comparison between him and the other three quarterbacks (John Elway, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes). Hurts could grow into that quarterback, but he may also not need to be as long as the Eagles defense keeps chugging along at the top of the league.
Luck and Injuries
Ultimately, there are so many factors that are out of a team’s control when the calendar flips to September. Promising seasons can be derailed by a key injury, similar to when Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season with a neck injury. Overnight, the team went from Super Bowl front runner to eventual first pick in the draft. But even if you are lucky with injuries, there are thirty one other teams you are competing against.
I feel that the NFC East may be looking at their first repeat division champion since the early 2000s. Their only true competition is likely against the Washington Commanders - I just don’t think the Cowboys or the Giants will be able to make up the ground against the Eagles.
But when we expand it out from the NFC East, their chief competition to reach the Super Bowl again will come from the NFC North. No one will be caught by surprise against the Lions this year after going 15-2 in 2024, just barely beating out the Vikings. And the Vikings will hopefully have a major upgrade at quarterback this season, after moving from Sam Darnold in 2024 to J.J. McCarthy in 2025.
Ultimately, there are just too many things that need to fall in place for the Eagles to repeat as champions. It’s incredibly tough, that’s why it’s so rare in the NFL. Much of the rosters turn over every year, injuries happen frequently, and only a few games mean that each one is make-or-break.
Follow us on Bluesky